The next list I decided to re-assess was the 2018 third basemen rankings, and forecasting how well they would play during that season. I decided to see how well my predictions measured compared to the other analysts from the MLB Network and fans of social media alike, which included the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Linbergh, Brian Kenny, Mike Lowell, and fans from social media. Counting fans as one entity, this means I was comparing how well I had performed that year in forecasting third basemen to eight other analysts.
So in essence....how did I fare overall, compared to the Shredder, and to the other analysts? Let's see for ourselves.
2018 Third Basemen:
This was the second list that they had put out, as I had tweeted out my third basemen list on January 8th, 2018. For everyone else's list, you can read it through Brewers Nation, or find out on this table below:
......
In reflecting back at my predictions, it's safe to say, that I did a fairly mediocre job at making these picks. Perhaps only my Manny Machado pick at having him be a top 5 performer at this position may have helped me in relation to the other analysts, but the benefit seemed to be minimal as Ben Lindbergh, Mike Petriello, and fans from social media also had him in the top 5.
Unfortunately, I had rated Jose Ramirez lower than plenty of other anaysts, and he finished tops amongs players that were ranked by analysts at this position. While everyone was more or less equally punished for predicting Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson to fare well as they had underperformed in 2018, it didn't help my case that I had also rated Kyle Seager and Adrian Beltre to be top ten finishers when they did not do so that year.
For the Shredder, this marks another instance where they finished near the bottom in predictive power. Their list was actually similar to mine, but the Shredder had underrated Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, and Manny Machado, while drastically over-rating Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, and Adrian Beltre in 2018.
This list suggested that famed sabermetrician and former Boston Red Sox statistical analyst Bill James had the best list among all of the analysts here, with fans from social media and Mike Petriello beind tied for second place.
Bill James had banked on Travis Shaw finishing in the top ten among players at this position, which he did amongst third basemen that were ranked by analysts. He also bet big on Anthony Rendon and Jose Ramirez, and he was rewarded by both of them in having very good seasons respectively in 2018. While most people were punished for picking Adrian Beltre in the top ten, he had the good fortunes to not pick him on his list, as James had correctly forecasted a decline in Beltre's performance for the 2018 season.
In terms of how everyone did, people seemed to do a decent job of projecting performances of third basemen for the 2018 season. It was right around the middle of the bell curve, but most people accurately projected at least six players to finish in the top 10 (among players that were ranked by one of the analysts on this list).
For the 2018 third basemen list, in judging how I forecasted third basemen for the 2018 season, I would give myself a C. I don't think my list was anything spectacular, but it didn't seem entirely unreasonable, either. It was a run of the mill list, as suggested by its 5th place among 9 analysts. I did predict 6 of the top Fangraphs WAR players at the 3B position in 2018, but so did everyone else, and I didn't really have a true sleeper pick nailed down to separate myself to be above the rest of the pack in that category.
So in essence....how did I fare overall, compared to the Shredder, and to the other analysts? Let's see for ourselves.
2018 Third Basemen:
This was the second list that they had put out, as I had tweeted out my third basemen list on January 8th, 2018. For everyone else's list, you can read it through Brewers Nation, or find out on this table below:
| 2018 3B | Alan Lu | Shredder | James | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Lowell | Fans | fWAR | FWAR Rank |
| Jose Ramirez | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Alex Bregman | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Manny Machado | 4 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Anthony Rendon | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Nolan Arenado | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 5 |
| Justin Turner | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4.2 | 6 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 3.9 | 7 |
| Travis Shaw | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 3.6 | 8 |
| Mike Moustakas | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 2.4 | 9 |
| Kris Bryant | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.3 | 10 |
| Kyle Seager | 9 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 1.5 | 11 |
| Josh Donaldson | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1.3 | 12 |
| Adrian Beltre | 10 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 1.1 | 13 |
| Zack Cozart | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.3 | 14 |
| Jake Lamb | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 0.3 | 14 |
| Difference Estimator | 66 | 74 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 62 | 68 | 78 | 60 | ||
| Yr Rank | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 2 | ||
......
In reflecting back at my predictions, it's safe to say, that I did a fairly mediocre job at making these picks. Perhaps only my Manny Machado pick at having him be a top 5 performer at this position may have helped me in relation to the other analysts, but the benefit seemed to be minimal as Ben Lindbergh, Mike Petriello, and fans from social media also had him in the top 5.
Unfortunately, I had rated Jose Ramirez lower than plenty of other anaysts, and he finished tops amongs players that were ranked by analysts at this position. While everyone was more or less equally punished for predicting Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson to fare well as they had underperformed in 2018, it didn't help my case that I had also rated Kyle Seager and Adrian Beltre to be top ten finishers when they did not do so that year.
For the Shredder, this marks another instance where they finished near the bottom in predictive power. Their list was actually similar to mine, but the Shredder had underrated Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, and Manny Machado, while drastically over-rating Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, and Adrian Beltre in 2018.
This list suggested that famed sabermetrician and former Boston Red Sox statistical analyst Bill James had the best list among all of the analysts here, with fans from social media and Mike Petriello beind tied for second place.
Bill James had banked on Travis Shaw finishing in the top ten among players at this position, which he did amongst third basemen that were ranked by analysts. He also bet big on Anthony Rendon and Jose Ramirez, and he was rewarded by both of them in having very good seasons respectively in 2018. While most people were punished for picking Adrian Beltre in the top ten, he had the good fortunes to not pick him on his list, as James had correctly forecasted a decline in Beltre's performance for the 2018 season.
In terms of how everyone did, people seemed to do a decent job of projecting performances of third basemen for the 2018 season. It was right around the middle of the bell curve, but most people accurately projected at least six players to finish in the top 10 (among players that were ranked by one of the analysts on this list).
For the 2018 third basemen list, in judging how I forecasted third basemen for the 2018 season, I would give myself a C. I don't think my list was anything spectacular, but it didn't seem entirely unreasonable, either. It was a run of the mill list, as suggested by its 5th place among 9 analysts. I did predict 6 of the top Fangraphs WAR players at the 3B position in 2018, but so did everyone else, and I didn't really have a true sleeper pick nailed down to separate myself to be above the rest of the pack in that category.
No comments:
Post a Comment
This is the comment form message. This is also a reminder to be courteous and respectful. Also, no spam.