The MLB Network's top 10 countdown lists always intrigued me. They have sabermetric panelists, former baseball players, fans, and other analysts alike debating on who would fare the best in the upcoming season, and when I first heard of "The Shredder," it sounded like a smart, sophisticated way to evaluate baseball players, as it was a computer-based system that forecasts them solely without emotion.
Nearly a couple of years ago, I decided to make my own top 10 lists of which baseball players would be the best at their positions. I wanted to see how my lists would compare against The Shredder and other experts, and whether or not if The Shredder actually had much predictive power, or if it was another theoretical, hit or miss system. Analytical systems are not going to be perfect, and everything has its strengths and flaws. I also wanted to see how well my picks would hold up throughout the season.
With thanks to Brewers Nation and my old Twitter posts from when I used the hashtag #Top10RightNow, I was able to re-visit the past to see how my lists stacked up against the other panelists and fans from social media.
So in its entirety, I will be evaluating my own picks (Alan Lu), the Shredder itself, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindberg, Brian Kenny, the Expert they brought in for the specific list that day, and fans on social media in general. Counting fans as one entity, and the random baseball expert as another, in total, I would be nine analysts' forecasts throughout the 2018 baseball season.
To gauge at the best forecasts, I decided to look at all the picks that were made, and use the absolute value from our picks, and from how players actually performed via Fangraphs WAR that season to gauge the difference amongst all the players that were ranked. Then to see how well everyone did in relation to predicting players overall, I decided to look at the average difference per player. It's not a perfect system, but hey, this shall suffice, I guess.
So in essence....how did I fare overall, compared to the Shredder, and to the other analysts? Let's see for ourselves.
2018 Shortstops:
This was the first list that they had put out, as I had tweeted out my shortstop list on January 7th, 2018. For everyone else's list, you can read it through Brewers Nation, or find out on this table below:
......
So on first glimpse, my pick of Corey Seager to be the number one shortstop of the 2018 season was a bust, as he ended up getting injured early on, and missed the rest of the season with a Tommy John injury. So it appears that I was not off to a great start.
But things then get interesting. I correctly predicted Xander Bogearts and Trea Turner to end up in the top 5 among candidates that were ranked, and I also managed to correctly pick Paul DeJong and Brandon Crawford as top 10 finishers among those that were chosen by one analyst. While everyone else had decided to pick Elvis Andrus, I did not, and leaving him off the top 10 list turned out to be a smart move, as he did not finish in the top 10 among players on this list.
For the Shredder, everyone seemed to be nearly equally punished for picking Corey Seager and Carlos Correa high, as heavy expectations were placed upon them, so that was not a huge detriment there. Also, they had correctly identified Trevor Story as a player that would be a top 10 finisher amongst shortstops, as he turned in a very good season.
However, the Shredder left off Xander Bogaerts, who turned out to be a very good performer in the 2018 season, and leaving off Didi Gregorious also turned out to be a bad decision for the Shredder. They also had predicted Elvis Andrus and Tim Beckham to be top 10 finishers at the shortstop position, but their relative lackluster years also hurt the Shredder's predictive score on this list.
In terms of how well everyone predicted 2018 shortstops in relation to the other categories, the data seemed to suggest it was around the middle of the bell curve. Everyone rated Carlos Correa and Corey Seager too high, with good reason as both are very good players, but neither fared quite as well as anticipated. Most people rated Elvis Andrus too high, but also most people had Francisco Lindor, Andrelton Simmons, and Trea Turner in the right range.
In judging how I did versus the Shredder in predicting 2018 shortstops, I think I did better than I thought I would have. It's not a perfect list, but managing to predict Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Didi Gregorius, and Paul DeJong to fare well boded well for my score here.
I think I'd give myself a solid B for how I did in terms of my 2018 shortstops forecast.
Nearly a couple of years ago, I decided to make my own top 10 lists of which baseball players would be the best at their positions. I wanted to see how my lists would compare against The Shredder and other experts, and whether or not if The Shredder actually had much predictive power, or if it was another theoretical, hit or miss system. Analytical systems are not going to be perfect, and everything has its strengths and flaws. I also wanted to see how well my picks would hold up throughout the season.
With thanks to Brewers Nation and my old Twitter posts from when I used the hashtag #Top10RightNow, I was able to re-visit the past to see how my lists stacked up against the other panelists and fans from social media.
So in its entirety, I will be evaluating my own picks (Alan Lu), the Shredder itself, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindberg, Brian Kenny, the Expert they brought in for the specific list that day, and fans on social media in general. Counting fans as one entity, and the random baseball expert as another, in total, I would be nine analysts' forecasts throughout the 2018 baseball season.
To gauge at the best forecasts, I decided to look at all the picks that were made, and use the absolute value from our picks, and from how players actually performed via Fangraphs WAR that season to gauge the difference amongst all the players that were ranked. Then to see how well everyone did in relation to predicting players overall, I decided to look at the average difference per player. It's not a perfect system, but hey, this shall suffice, I guess.
So in essence....how did I fare overall, compared to the Shredder, and to the other analysts? Let's see for ourselves.
2018 Shortstops:
This was the first list that they had put out, as I had tweeted out my shortstop list on January 7th, 2018. For everyone else's list, you can read it through Brewers Nation, or find out on this table below:
| 2018 SS | Alan Lu | Shredder | James | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Reynolds | Fans | fWAR | FWAR Rank |
| Francisco Lindor | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Trevor Story | 15 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 4.9 | 4 |
| Trea Turner | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 4.8 | 5 |
| Didi Gregorius | 9 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4.7 | 6 |
| Jean Segura | 15 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 3.7 | 7 |
| Paul DeJong | 8 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 3.3 | 8 |
| Brandon Crawford | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 9 |
| Carlos Correa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 10 |
| Addison Russell | 10 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 1.4 | 11 |
| Elvis Andrus | 15 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1.2 | 12 |
| Corey Seager | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 13 |
| J.P. Crawford | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 0.3 | 14 |
| Orlando Arcia | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.4 | 15 |
| Tim Beckham | 15 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.5 | 16 |
| Difference Estimator | 55 | 75 | 87 | 65 | 73 | 61 | 65 | 67 | 81 | ||
| Yr Rank | 1 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | ||
So on first glimpse, my pick of Corey Seager to be the number one shortstop of the 2018 season was a bust, as he ended up getting injured early on, and missed the rest of the season with a Tommy John injury. So it appears that I was not off to a great start.
But things then get interesting. I correctly predicted Xander Bogearts and Trea Turner to end up in the top 5 among candidates that were ranked, and I also managed to correctly pick Paul DeJong and Brandon Crawford as top 10 finishers among those that were chosen by one analyst. While everyone else had decided to pick Elvis Andrus, I did not, and leaving him off the top 10 list turned out to be a smart move, as he did not finish in the top 10 among players on this list.
For the Shredder, everyone seemed to be nearly equally punished for picking Corey Seager and Carlos Correa high, as heavy expectations were placed upon them, so that was not a huge detriment there. Also, they had correctly identified Trevor Story as a player that would be a top 10 finisher amongst shortstops, as he turned in a very good season.
However, the Shredder left off Xander Bogaerts, who turned out to be a very good performer in the 2018 season, and leaving off Didi Gregorious also turned out to be a bad decision for the Shredder. They also had predicted Elvis Andrus and Tim Beckham to be top 10 finishers at the shortstop position, but their relative lackluster years also hurt the Shredder's predictive score on this list.
In terms of how well everyone predicted 2018 shortstops in relation to the other categories, the data seemed to suggest it was around the middle of the bell curve. Everyone rated Carlos Correa and Corey Seager too high, with good reason as both are very good players, but neither fared quite as well as anticipated. Most people rated Elvis Andrus too high, but also most people had Francisco Lindor, Andrelton Simmons, and Trea Turner in the right range.
In judging how I did versus the Shredder in predicting 2018 shortstops, I think I did better than I thought I would have. It's not a perfect list, but managing to predict Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Didi Gregorius, and Paul DeJong to fare well boded well for my score here.
I think I'd give myself a solid B for how I did in terms of my 2018 shortstops forecast.
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