Revisiting the 2018 First Basemen Rankings' Forecast

In 2018, the debate for who would be the best first baseman for that season was fierce.  In addition, analysts would debate on which first basemen would be regarded as the best in baseball that year, as each analyst sent in their top 10 list.  I had sent mine through Twitter on January 26^th, and this was definitively my best list in 2018.  Not only did it receive the most likes out of my lists that year, but I ended up having the most accurate list overall in that category.

Here, we will be analyzing my own list (Alan Lu), as well as the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Jim Thome, and the fans from social media.

Here is how we all fared in this category that year.

2018 First Basemen:

2018 1B	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Thome	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Freddie Freeman	4	2	7	3	4	3	2	6	4	5.3	1
Paul Goldschmidt	1	3	2	2	2	2	3	1	2	5.2	2
Matt Carpenter	6	9	15	15	15	8	9	15	15	5.0	3
Cody Bellinger	5	5	5	5	3	5	4	7	5	3.6	4
Joey Votto	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	3.5	5
Matt Olson	15	15	9	15	15	15	15	15	15	3.5	5
Anthony Rizzo	3	4	3	4	5	4	5	4	3	2.9	7
Joey Gallo	15	15	15	10	6	10	15	15	15	2.7	8
Brandon Belt	10	8	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	2.2	9
Carlos Santana	9	10	15	7	15	7	7	15	15	1.8	10
Justin Smoak	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	9	15	1.7	11
Ryan Zimmerman	15	15	15	15	7	15	15	15	15	1.3	12
Jose Abreu	8	6	6	8	9	6	6	3	9	1.2	13
Yuli Gurriel	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	1.1	14
Edwin Encarnacion	7	7	15	6	15	15	10	8	15	1.0	15
Josh Bell	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.9	16
Eric Thames	15	15	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	0.9	16
Miguel Cabrera	15	15	15	9	15	9	15	10	7	0.7	18
Greg Bird	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	8	0.1	19
Eric Hosmer	15	15	4	15	10	15	8	5	6	-0.1	20
Diff. Estimator	69	71	93	85	85	71	81	107	105
Yr Rank	1	2	7	5	5	2	4	9	8

...

This was by far, my best list of 2018.  I had the most accurate list here, and also had bet big on Matt Carpenter, which paid off as he went on to have a superb season that resulted him in finished 3rd in Fangraphs WAR among players ranked by analysts in this position.  No one voted for Freddie Freeman at the top, so me picking Paul Goldschmidt to be #1 was a solid choice, as he finished 2nd in Fangraphs WAR among first basemen out of players on this list.  In addition, I correctly identified Brandon Belt and Carlos Santana as players that would be top 10 finishers among first basemen listed here.

The Shredder also did a good job in forecasting 2018 first basemen.  Like myself, they had the good sense to pick Matt Carpenter as a top 10 first baseman for that season, and they also had Belt and Santana in their top 10 list.  While they missed by picking Abreu and Encarnacion, that did not hurt them that much here.

We still do remember Matt Carpenter's secret salsa, right?
 He had a tremendous second half in 2018 to cap off a terrific 2018 season.
(Picture courtesy of STL Sports Page via Rob Rains and Suzanne Corbett)

Overall, I would give myself an A for my 2018 first basemen forecast.  Though no one had Freeman at #1, I must pat myself on the back for picking Matt Carpenter the highest out of all of the other analysts, and he rewarded my faith by having a 5.0 Fangraphs WAR season.  He certainly was the Cardinals' MVP in the 2nd half of the season, and he was definitely one of the best players in baseball in 2018.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.