The next position that would have a top 10 list from analysts was the 2019 third basemen list. Various analysts made projections of who the best players of that position would be for the 2019 MLB season. Last year, Bill James had the most accurate list among analysts for the 2018 season, but his list was not posted online this time around, so that information will not be available this time around for 2019.
This year, we will assess eight analysts' forecast, which include myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Mike Lowell, and fans from social media (who I'm including as all one entity for simplicity purposes).
This year, there was no consensus number one third baseman heading into the 2019 season. Most of the analysts had Houston Astros' Alex Bregman finishing at the top, some had Cleveland Indians' Jose Ramirez as their number one, and the fans voiced loudly that Colorado Rockies' third baseman Nolan Arenado was their favorite to finish at the top of the third basemen rankings to end the year.
So without further ado, how did we all do?
2019 Third Basemen:
....
The Findings:
Generally, most people had very similar lists in this category, so people in general tended to be the most accurate in making their picks of third basemen for the 2019 year.
MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello finished with having the most accurate forecast among all of the analysts of third basemen for the 2019 MLB season. He made astute projections, as he had four of the top five finishers among players on this list.
For me, I thought I did alright in making my forecast of third basemen for the 2019 season. Three of my top 5 picks finished as top 5 finishers among players that were ranked at the position to start the year. It helped me somewhat that I had ranked Josh Donaldson on my list and some of the others did not, and I also managed to rank Justin Turner in the right range, but I also had ranked Eugenio Suarez too low.
Interestingly enough, both me, the Shredder, Brian Kenny, and Mike Lowell had all of the top 10 finishers that were ranked amongst the analysts on this list. The differences were minimal, but enough to determine who was more accurate than another here.
The Shredder actually didn't do a terrible job, but it was considered to be less accurate than the others on this list. It was penalized for ranking Alex Bregman too low, while simultaneously overrating Jose Ramirez and Justin Turner. They also were higher on Matt Carpenter than even me, but that did not turn out to be a great move, as Matt Carpenter suddenly had trouble hitting or consistently getting on base in the 2019 season.
For me, I thought I made a solid overall list, and I will give myself a B+ for the 2019 third basemen forecast I made. I will also give the Shredder a C for this list. Their list looked to be okay in a nutshell, but it did not do nearly as well compared to others. While all of their picks were top 10 finishers among players that were ranked by analysts, the Shredder were a bit off high and low in their order, as they had ranked Ramirez and Turner too high, while having rated Bregman too low.
In analyzing the past two years of data on forecasting third basemen, the go-to, point person that you should go to for your 2020 third basemen predictions should be MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello. He finished second to famed sabermetrician and former Boston Red Sox stat analyst Bill James in accuracy in forecasting third basemen in 2018, and he was tops this year amongst analysts here.
As for myself, I would say that my opinion regarding 2020 third basemen would sort of matter. Though I rated in the middle of the pack in forecasting third basemen in 2018, placing in second place in accuracy among these analysts is not too shabby, and it can be duly noted that I have displayed a tendency in the third basemen category to pick many players that end up as top 10 finishers of that position amongst the players that were ranked by analysts.
Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts. (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
This year, we will assess eight analysts' forecast, which include myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Mike Lowell, and fans from social media (who I'm including as all one entity for simplicity purposes).
This year, there was no consensus number one third baseman heading into the 2019 season. Most of the analysts had Houston Astros' Alex Bregman finishing at the top, some had Cleveland Indians' Jose Ramirez as their number one, and the fans voiced loudly that Colorado Rockies' third baseman Nolan Arenado was their favorite to finish at the top of the third basemen rankings to end the year.
So without further ado, how did we all do?
2019 Third Basemen:
| 2019 3B | Alan Lu | Shredder | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Lowell | Fans | fWAR | Rank |
| Alex Bregman | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Anthony Rendon | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 2 |
| Matt Chapman | 6 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6.1 | 3 |
| Nolan Arenado | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5.9 | 4 |
| Josh Donaldson | 9 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 4.9 | 5 |
| Kris Bryant | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4.8 | 6 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4.5 | 7 |
| Justin Turner | 7 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3.4 | 8 |
| Jose Ramirez | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.3 | 9 |
| Matt Carpenter | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 1.2 | 10 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 15 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.4 | 11 |
| Travis Shaw | 15 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.8 | 12 |
| Miguel Andujar | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | -1.0 | 13 |
| Diff. Estimator | 33 | 47 | 29 | 45 | 35 | 43 | 43 | 41 | ||
| Yr Rank | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
....
The Findings:
Generally, most people had very similar lists in this category, so people in general tended to be the most accurate in making their picks of third basemen for the 2019 year.
MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello finished with having the most accurate forecast among all of the analysts of third basemen for the 2019 MLB season. He made astute projections, as he had four of the top five finishers among players on this list.
For me, I thought I did alright in making my forecast of third basemen for the 2019 season. Three of my top 5 picks finished as top 5 finishers among players that were ranked at the position to start the year. It helped me somewhat that I had ranked Josh Donaldson on my list and some of the others did not, and I also managed to rank Justin Turner in the right range, but I also had ranked Eugenio Suarez too low.
Interestingly enough, both me, the Shredder, Brian Kenny, and Mike Lowell had all of the top 10 finishers that were ranked amongst the analysts on this list. The differences were minimal, but enough to determine who was more accurate than another here.
The Shredder actually didn't do a terrible job, but it was considered to be less accurate than the others on this list. It was penalized for ranking Alex Bregman too low, while simultaneously overrating Jose Ramirez and Justin Turner. They also were higher on Matt Carpenter than even me, but that did not turn out to be a great move, as Matt Carpenter suddenly had trouble hitting or consistently getting on base in the 2019 season.
For me, I thought I made a solid overall list, and I will give myself a B+ for the 2019 third basemen forecast I made. I will also give the Shredder a C for this list. Their list looked to be okay in a nutshell, but it did not do nearly as well compared to others. While all of their picks were top 10 finishers among players that were ranked by analysts, the Shredder were a bit off high and low in their order, as they had ranked Ramirez and Turner too high, while having rated Bregman too low.
In analyzing the past two years of data on forecasting third basemen, the go-to, point person that you should go to for your 2020 third basemen predictions should be MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello. He finished second to famed sabermetrician and former Boston Red Sox stat analyst Bill James in accuracy in forecasting third basemen in 2018, and he was tops this year amongst analysts here.
As for myself, I would say that my opinion regarding 2020 third basemen would sort of matter. Though I rated in the middle of the pack in forecasting third basemen in 2018, placing in second place in accuracy among these analysts is not too shabby, and it can be duly noted that I have displayed a tendency in the third basemen category to pick many players that end up as top 10 finishers of that position amongst the players that were ranked by analysts.
Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts. (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
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