Evaluating the 2018 Catchers' Forecast

Since we'll be recapping forecasts of top position players and pitchers for the 2018 MLB season, we'll be revisiting predictions for catchers that year.  Many had selected Buster Posey to finish at the top, while the fans' pick was for Yadier Molina.  Statistical analysts had some reservations about Yadi though, even though he is well on his way to having a great baseball career, as his Fangraphs WAR was not as high as expected in previous years, so they did not tend to rate him as high as social media did.

I tended to pick more defensive minded catchers like Yadi, but the Shredder opted for a more offensive lean, with pitch framing being the new source of discussion from statistical analysts.  Tyler Flowers' pitch framing was the hot button topic, and he was trending upwards from the analysts.  Meanwhile, other catchers such as Yasmani Grandal, Salvador Perez, and Jonathan Lucroy remained divisive candidates for the top 10.

I will be analyzing how I did (Alan Lu), as well as the other analysts such as The Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Dave Valle, and the fans from social media.  I remember sending in my list via Twitter on January 21, 2018 through this tweet.  Anyways, let's see how everyone did.

2018 Catchers:

2018 C	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Valle	Fans	fWAR	FWAR Rank
J.T. Realmuto	3	5	2	4	3	4	3	7	8	4.9	1
Yasmani Grandal	15	4	15	10	15	8	15	9	15	4.7	2
Yadier Molina	6	8	5	8	8	9	4	4	1	2.5	3
Tyler Flowers	15	9	15	5	10	5	9	8	15	2.5	3
Buster Posey	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2.3	5
Mike Zunino	8	7	8	9	5	7	15	5	10	2.1	6
Gary Sanchez	2	2	6	2	4	2	2	2	3	1.7	7
Russell Martin	9	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	7	1.2	8
Austin Barnes	15	6	15	6	7	6	15	10	15	1.1	9
Kurt Suzuki	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	15	15	1.0	10
Willson Contreras	4	3	4	3	2	3	5	3	5	0.7	11
Alex Avila	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.7	11
Chris Ianetta	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	0.7	11
Jonathan Lucroy	7	15	15	15	15	15	8	15	15	0.6	14
Salvador Perez	5	15	3	7	15	15	6	6	4	0.4	15
Robinson Chirinos	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.3	16
Welington Castillo	10	15	9	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.2	17
Brian McCann	15	15	15	15	15	15	7	15	9	0.1	18
Tucker Barnhart	15	15	7	15	6	15	15	15	6	-0.4	19
Diff. Estimator	100	74	102	80	82	64	102	78	108
Yr Rank	6	2	7	4	5	1	7	3	9

...

For me, I did not really do so well in predicting catchers for the 2018 MLB season.  One glaring omission from me was in not picking Yasmani Grandal to be on the top 10 list, and he ended up turning in a very good season.  He was regarded as a bat catcher who had trouble with his defense and signal calling, but his very good ability to hit on offense helped him in 2018.

I also missed out on the Tyler Flowers trend, as he continued to show excellent pitch framing, which helped him defensively in 2018, and he also put up adequate offensive numbers.  I also missed on Willson Contreras, but the notable misses that hurt me was predicting Jonathan Lucroy, Salvador Perez, and Welington Castillo to all have good seasons that year when they would not end up doing so.

The Shredder actually did a good job of picking catchers to finish in the top 10 among players that were ranked by analysts.  Everyone picked Willson Contreras as that selection backfired, so the repercussions were minimal at best.  The Shredder correctly identified Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers, and Russell Martin as players that would be some of the better catchers among the players that were ranked on this list.

The most accurate in making the 2018 catchers' forecast turns out to be the Ringer's Ben Lindbergh.  Like the Shredder, he too had Grandal, Flowers, and Martin on his list, but he also correctly identified Austin Barnes as a sleeper pick for the 2018 season.

Overall, I think I did okay in my predictions, but I could've done a better job than how I did in predicting catchers for the 2018 season.  Missing out on Grandal and Flowers turned out to be significant missteps, and I ended up overrating Contreras, Lucroy, Perez, and Castillo's future impact for that year, as none of them ended up playing as well as expected.  On the bright side, I did have Russell Martin as a sleeper pick for the lower half of the top 10, as he was one of the better catchers among players that were ranked on this list.  In addition, I also identified J.T. Realmuto as a very good catcher, as he ended up having the best Fangraphs WAR in 2018.  Therefore, I would give myself a C grade for my 2018 catchers' forecast.

Props to Brewers Nation for providing the list of the rankings from the other analyst.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.