Showing posts with label trade deadline. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade deadline. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Assessing The Totality of The St. Louis Cardinals' Moves in July, and Whether If They Made Enough Moves

The St. Louis Cardinals are currently in first place of the NL Central, but plenty have felt that they needed to do more this month, and their moves or lack thereof has been roundly criticized across the web.  In fact, they spent a good portion of this year in second or third place as they had hovered around .500 before experiencing a second-half surge that has helped them place atop of this division.

The question that lingers is: did the Cardinals make enough moves prior to or at the trade deadline this month?

What is a fact is that the Cardinals did not make any groundbreaking moves this month.

Right now, the Cardinals are 23rd in Team OPS with .725, but are 9th in all of the majors with a 4.12 ERA.  Speaking of ERAs in baseball is startlingly high this year, don't you think?  But a deeper dive has them tied for 16th with Miami in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 4.47, and they rank in the middle of the pack in walks and strikeouts per 9.

One small, but significant move is that they demoted Harrison Bader to AAA, which will allow the other outfielders a chance to prove if they can play well when given extended opportunities in the big leagues.  Though Bader is a very good fielder, he had not been hitting well at all, as he has been sporting a paltry .195 batting average to go with a lackluster .648 OPS, so that may be a move that could help pay off for both the Cards and Bader.  Bader will need to fix his swing, and it could give the other outfielders more playing time.

More pitching looked to be the answer, as both the pitching staff and bullpen have at times struggled with their control and command.  Another solid hitter could help, but that was not obtained, and there was some fury over the Cards having dealt Jedd Gyorko today.

But there was one particularly interesting detail to note.  Baseball writer Jenifer Langosch posted this tweet, detailing Cardinals' acquisitions from 2016 to the present, and each time prior to this year, they have missed the playoffs.

This month, the Cardinals.....

Traded for left-handed reliever Zac Rosscup by giving cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Claimed left-handed reliever Adalberto Mejia off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels.

Traded for left-handed reliever Tony Cingrani and righthanded minor league pitcher Jeffry Abreu by dealing Jedd Gyorko to the Los Angeles Dodgers.  I've reviewed the Jedd Gyorko for Tony Cingrani swap involving international bonus pool money in a separate article, but now this is an article that is about if the Cardinals did enough this month and made enough solid moves to ensure that this team is a legitimate contender.

Individually, these moves may seem reasonable, as they are looking for a lefty that can help the bullpen and strike hitters out.  But these are all rather, very small, ho-hum moves, and none of these moves are a game-changer.  None of the players they traded for or claimed are All-Stars or have that sort of potential, and the pitchers they acquired this month are probably competing for a situational left-handed spot in the Cards' bullpen.

President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak is a calculated businessman that tends to make rational moves and tends to not to make big risks, which has its positives and negatives.  The current team may be talented enough to make the playoffs, but without getting an upper-echelon piece in the trades this year, but it could be tough for them to go all the way, especially if Paul Goldschmidt ends up treading back to how he played in the first half of the season.

The other angle is that they did not want to make a bad move, as bad trades can cost top prospects, cap space, and draft picks, and bad trades can set teams back years.  The Cardinals did not make a big move this month, and the question if there was a big move that could have been made without hurting the Cards in the short or long term, the answer to that may be one we will never know.

But no matter how you spin it, the fact is the Cardinals traded for spare parts players, and to answer your question, as a whole, the answer is no.  The Cards did not do enough at the trade deadline, and will have to hope that the current roster, plus some additions of left-handed relievers and call-ups will be enough to get them the title this year.

Jedd Gyorko Traded For Tony Cingrani and Jeffrey Abreu: It Might Not Actually Be A Bad Trade?

Today, the St. Louis Cardinals traded away longtime veteran infielder and stalwart, Jedd Gyorko along with international bonus pool money, and cash consideration to the Los Angeles Dodgers for left-handed reliever Tony Cingrani and right-handed pitcher Jeffry Abreu, which has sparked something of a minor outrage amongst Cardinal fans in the Twitter comments section.

Now, here's my take on this (cue: unpopular opinion alert!)...

Jedd Gyorko will be missed as he was traded to the Dodgers, but injuries and a slow start to the season have made this year difficult for him.

Contrary to public opinion, this trade.....might not be all that bad?  I don't actually hate this move, unlike others in Cardinal nation, though I'm not exactly in love with this trade either.

Sure the Cardinals didn't get back top prospects, and Jedd Gyorko has once hit 30 homers in a season and nearly contended for an All-Star bid in the 2016-17 seasons, and he's been an above average player for the past three seasons prior to this year, but there are several things that should be mentioned.

Tommy Edman has been on the upswing, as he's played far better in the majors than anyone anticipated, and a spot needs to ensure that he will stay up for the duration of this season, as he'll be playing third base.  Kolten Wong is an excellent defensive player at second base, and Paul DeJong has been the team's most consistently productive player all year long at shortstop.  DeJong was the Cards' lone All-Star as he hit really well in the first half, and is third in homers on the team with 18.

Paul Goldschmidt started off slowly, but has been on a second half tear, and has really shined ever since that series against the Seattle Mariners, as he now leads the team with 25 homers, and his OPS is better, which is at a respectable .812.

Yairo Munoz has been the team's backup infielder, and Matt Carpenter is currently injured, has not produced nearly as well as last year, and is currently making roughly $14.5 million, and so teams might not have been exactly calling to trade for him.

Which leads us right back to Jedd Gyorko.  He's been a fairly good hitter but a subpar fielder for the Cardinals in the past three seasons, but this year, he's been injury prone, and has hit just for a .196 batting average and a .578 OPS.  He's also in his early 30s, already has below average speed and defensive ability for an infielder, and signs suggest that he may be on the decline, as he probably would've been languishing on the bench behind Edman this season, and it's unclear if he would've been a clear upgrade over Munoz, as Fangraphs WAR actually rates both Edman and Munoz better than Gyorko, as theirs is 0.6 and 0.1 to Gyorko's -0.3 WAR this year.

But you might say, but what if Tommy Edman is a flash in the pan, or more like a Bo Hart or Joe McEwing rather than the next Matt Carpenter?  And what if Jedd Gyorko suddenly starts mashing balls once again in Los Angeles and helps them?  Well, that's the risk the Cardinals are willing to take, and they are willing to keep giving Edman more at-bats for the time being.

Now for the second part, what about Tony Cingrani?

Tony Cingrani's 4.76 ERA may not look great, but he's a left-handed reliever that has posted high strikeout rates, which might be able to help the Cardinals' bullpen this year.

On one hand, he's a left-handed reliever that had just a 4.76 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers, which doesn't look great on paper, but his peripherals were actually quite good.

His hits/9 is 7.5, HR9 is 0.8, BB9 is 2.4, and K/9 is 14.3 last year, and Cingrani is a strikeout pitcher with experience as a both a starter and a closer.  Absolute best case scenario would be for him to be provide some versatility out of the bullpen, and his peripherals suggest that he's just been unlucky or has had a bad defense behind him in Los Angeles.  The worst-case scenario is that his command issues flare up again, and he ends up being another sketchy acquisition a la Greg Holland.  Hopefully that won't be the case, but Cingrani has had issues in the past with his control and in trying to keep balls in the ball park, but he's often played in hitters' ball parks in having played for Cincinnati, and the Cardinals have a pitchers park.  The Dodgers also have a pitchers' park, but with Cingrani having good peripherals this year, his somewhat high ERA may have been due to bad lack and bad defense on the Dodgers part.

Most likely, Cingrani will be a situational left-handed reliever out of the bullpen for the Cardinals.

The worst case scenario is that he falters though, but the same could be said for most bullpen pitchers or pitchers in general.  I mean, who could have predicted that both Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel would not be pitching well?  But that could play into the other point, that pitchers can be fickle from year to year, so stockpiling as much talent would be crucial to boosting up the team's pitching.

Now for the other pitcher, righthanded pitcher Jeffrey Abreu, he's a 19-year old strikeout pitcher that is very far away from the Majors, as he is a spot starter that is still in rookie ball, so he's basically a throw-in in this trade.

The last part, the Cardinals traded away 2019-20 International Cap Space and cash considerations along with Jedd Gyorko, via Derrick Goold's Twitter account.  I think this was sort of a means to get Gyorko off their roster, but trading away International Cap Space would hurt the Cardinals' ability to sign International players in free agency a bit.  But the Cardinals have tended to be able to identify good players in both the draft and with their international bonus pool money, so hopefully that won't sting the Cardinals too much.

All in all, considering that this frees up Tommy Edman to continue to get at-bats, and that the Cardinals add another left-hander that might be able to help the Cardinals' bullpen, this could have been worse.  This trade looks bad on the Cardinals' end on the surface, but it might not actually turn out that bad for them.

Exactly how much Jedd Gyorko has left in the tank is left up to debate, but while it's not a good look trading him to a league rival in the Dodgers, if Gyorko continues to not hit well this year or over the years, then maybe this trade might not be as bad as people may think it to be.

The Trade:

St. Louis Cardinals Get:
LHP Tony Cingrani
2018 (MLB): 1-2, 4.76 ERA, 22.2 IP, 7.5H9, 0.8 HR9, 2.4 BB9, 14.3 K9, 2.32 FIP, 0.5 WAR
2017 (MLB): 0-0, 4.22 ERA, 42.2 IP, 8.4 H9, 2.1 HR9, 2.5 BB9, 11.0 K9, 0.0 WAR

RHP Jeffry Abreu
2019 (Rk): 2-0, 4.66 ERA, 19.1 IP, 8.8 H9, 0.9 HR9, 2.8 BB9, 11.2 K9


Los Angeles Dodgers Get:

IF Jedd Gyorko
2019 (MLB): .196 AVG, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB, 62 PA, .274 OBP, .304 SLG, .578 OPS, -0.3 WAR
2018 (MLB): .262 AVG, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 402 PA, .346 OBP, .416 SLG, .762 OPS, 1.4 WAR

2019-20 International Cap Space
Cash Considerations

Current St. Louis Cardinals' Trade Haul Grade: C
Current Los Angeles Dodgers' Trade Haul Grade: C


For anyone wondering, the WAR listed in this article is the Fangraphs WAR. Update: Both Jedd Gyorko and Tony Cingrani are on the 60-day injured list, and Cingrani has not actually pitched this season.  So this trade now is basically one of no importance.


 Anyways, this has been my write-up on this trade, and thanks for reading.