Forecasting the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' Season

Hello Cardinals' Nation!  The 2021 season is right around the corner, and here is who made the team on Opening Day, as well as my thoughts on them for the upcoming season as well as my predictions.

Analyzing the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' Team

Jack Flaherty is a very talented pitcher that had a down 2020 season, but he's expected to pitch well this year.

(Photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images, via Sportscasting)

Starting Pitchers (5)

Jack Flaherty
2020 (MLB): 4-3. 4.91 ERA, 40.1 IP, 7.4 H9, 1.3 HR9, 3.6 BB9, 10.9 K9, 4.11 FIP, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-1, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 9 H9, 0 HR9, 3 BB9, 12 K9

He is a young ace that had a very good 2019 season, but he struggled in the shortened 2020 season.  The Cardinals took him to arbitration and lost, and now that move may have cost the Cards, as it may have just increased the odds of them potentially losing Flaherty to free agency when his contract runs up.  This season though, Flaherty is expected to have a solid 2021 season.

Adam Wainwright
2020 (MLB): 5-3, 3.15 ERA, 65.2 IP, 7.4 H9, 1.2 HR9, 2.1 BB9, 7.4 K9, 4.10 FIP, 1.0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0 5.40 ERA, 3.1 IP, 16.2 H9, 0 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 8.1 KP

Wainwright is historically a very good pitcher, and he was the most reliable pitcher in 2020.  He's an aging veteran that is in a race with Father Time, but he is a proven pitcher that will be counted on to pitch well this season once again.

Carlos Martinez
2020 (MLB): 0-3, 9.90 ERA, 20 IP, 14.4 H9, 2.7 HR9, 4.5 BB9, 7.7 K9, 6.89 FIP, -0.2 FIP

Martinez is a former All-Star that once threw triple digits, but he really struggled in the shortened 2020 season, and he's had arm injuries.  He made the rotation, but it's uncertain if he can get back to being his former All-Star self.

Daniel Ponce De Leon
2020 (MLB): 1-3, 4.96 ERA, 32.2 IP, 6.3 H9, 2.2 HR9, 5.5 BB9, 12.4 K9, 5.64 FIP, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-1, 27 ERA, 1 IP, 18 H9, 18 HR9, 9 BB9, 18 K9

He was previously a long man that excelled in his role, and after a couple of injuries that happened to other starting pitchers, Ponce de Leon won a role in the starting rotation this season.  Ponce de Leon also throws hard, and he has strikeout stuff.

John Gant
2020 (MLB): 0-3, 2.40 ERA, 15 IP, 5.4 H9, 0 HR9, 4.2 BB9, 10.8 K9, 2.19 FIP, 0.5 WAR

He was previously a long man that excelled in his role, and after a couple of injuries that happened to other starting pitchers, Gant won a role in the starting rotation this season.

The St. Louis Cardinals' starting rotation is a little banged up, so Gant and Ponce de Leon ended up being announced as starters on opening day.  Kwang-Hyun Kim was said to be day-to-day, but he and Miles Mikolas will start the season on the injured list.

Relievers (8)

Giovanny Gallegos
2020 (MLB): 2-2, 3.60 ERA, 4 SV, 15 IP, 5.4 H9, 0.6 HR9, 2.4 BB9, 12.6 K9, 2.06 FIP, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 1-0, 9.00 ERA, 2 IP, 13.5 H9, 9 HR9, 4.5 BB9, 13.5 K9

Gallegos was the most reliable bullpen pitcher, and he projects to pitch very well for the Cardinals this season.

Alex Reyes
2020 (MLB): 2-1, 3.20 ERA, 19.2 IP, 6.4 H9, 0.5 HR9, 6.4 BB9, 12.4 K9, 3.24 FIP, 0.5 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 2.70 ERA, 3.1 IP, 5.4 H9, 2.7 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 8.1 K9

Reyes is a flamethrower that improved immensely from 2019 to 2020, and he projects to be a good bullpen pitcher this season.

Andrew Miller
2020 (MLB): 1-1, 2.77 ERA, 4 SV, 13 IP, 6.2 H9, 0 HR9, 3.5 BB9, 11.1 K9, 2.58 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.2 IP, 13.5 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 0 K9

Miller is a solid, proven bullpen pitcher that has been reliable for plenty of years, but he is aging veteran that is in a race with Father Time to stay healthy and to pitch well for years to come.

Jordan Hicks
2020 (MLB): DNP – Injured

Hicks is a flamethrower that once threw 105 MPH, but he's been injured, and he had a rocky spring, but he still has a lot of potential to succeed in the bullpen this year.

Genesis Cabrera
2020 (MLB): 4-1, 2.42 ERA, 22.1 IP, 4 H9, 1.2 HR9, 6.4 BB9, 12.9 K9, 4.76 FIP, -0.1 FIP
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 18 ERA, 1 IP, 9 H9, 0 HR9, 27 BB9, 9 K9

He pitched well in the bullpen in 2020, and while he's had control issues, Cabrera is a hard-throwing lefty that could pitch well again this year to help solidify the Cards' pen.

Ryan Helsley
2020 (MLB): 1-1, 5.25 ERA, 6 H9, 2.3 HR9, 6 BB9, 7.5 K9, 7.02 FIP, -0.4 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.2 IP, 5.4 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 10.8 K9

Helsley is a hard throwing bullpen arm that shows promise to succeed in the bullpen.

Tyler Webb   (projected to get sent down when Mikolas returns)
2020 (MLB): 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 21.2 IP, 7.1 H9, 0.8 HR9, 2.9 BB9, 7.9 K9, 3.61 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 13.50 ERA, 0.2 IP, 13.5 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 0 K9

Webb is a lefty that pitched well in the spring, and he was fairly reliably in the bullpen this year, but he will need to show that he can also get righties out.

Jake Woodford (projected to get sent down when Kim returns)
2020 (MLB): 1-0, 5.57 ERA, 21 IP, 8.6 H9, 3 HR9, 2.1 BB9, 6.9 K9, 6.71 FIP, -0.3 WAR

Woodford is a versatile, young pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen, and he pitched well in the spring to earn a spot on this team.

Catchers (2)

Yadier Molina
2020 (MLB): .262 AVG, 4 HR, 16 RBI, .303 OBP, .359 SLG, .662 OPS, 13.5 K%, 0.5 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .462 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .500 OBP, .615 SLG, 1.115 OPS

Yadi is a future Hall of Fame Catcher, and he's historically a tremendous defensive catcher.  Numbers wise though, he seems to be on the verge or on the decline, and his offensive numbers are steadily decreasing.  Molina is the everyday catcher, but he may need some days off so he can rest up and play at full strength this season.

Andrew Knizner
2020 (MLB): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .300 OBP, .229 SLG, .529 OPS, 24.4 K%, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0 for 2, .000, .000 OPS, 1 K

He was a former prized catching prospect who will be Yadi's backup on opening day.  Knizner has not hit well in the majors, but he's shown flashes of his potential, but most likely, he will just be there to give Yadi a breather when he needs it.

Infielders (7)

The St. Louis Cardinals' tandem of Paul Goldschmid and Nolan Arenado will be exciting to watch, that's for sure.
Photo via Getty Images

Nolan Arenado

2020 (COL): .253 AVG, 8 HR, 26 RBI, .303 OBP, .434 SLG, .738 OPS, 10 K%, 0.9 WAR, Gold Glove winner
2019 (COL): .315 AVG, 41 HR, 118 RBI, .379 OBP, .583 SLG, .962 OPS, 14 K%, 6 WAR, All-Star, Gold Glove winner

Nolan Arenado is a very good third baseman that was acquired via trade with Colorado.  He is a good hitter and he is also a tremendous fielder.  He'll team up with Goldschmidt to form a formidable force in the Cards' lineup.

Tommy Edman
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 5 HR, 26 RBI, .317 OBP, .368 SLG, .685 OPS, 21.1 K%, 0.8 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .214 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .214 OBP, .214 SLG, .429 OPS

Edman is a versatile infielder that can play multiple positions, and he is a fairly solid hitter that can hit for a pretty high average.  He had a very good rookie season that was followed by a sophomore slump, but currently he has played his way to get plenty of at-bats and playing time this season.

Paul DeJong
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 3 HR, 25 RBI, .322 OBP, .349 SLG, .671 OPS, 28.7 K%, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .429 OBP, .300 SLG, .729 OPS

DeJong is a power-hitting shortstop that has a good set of tools, and he is also a solid fielder, but his hitting approach leaves much to be desired.  Still, if he can hit for a decent average and get his numbers back up, he can be an upper-tier shortstop in the majors.

Paul Goldschmidt

2020 (MLB): .304 AVG, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .417 OBP, .466 SLG, .883 OPS, 18.6 K%, 2.1 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .231 AVG, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .286 OBP, .769 SLG, 1.055 OPS

Goldschmidt had a very good 2020 season, and he was the Cardinals' best hitter and player last year.  He'll team up with Arenado to form a strong punch in the lineup.

Matt Carpenter
2020 (MLB): .186 AVG, 4 HR, 24 RBI, .325 OBP, .314 SLG, .640 OPS, 28.4 K%, 0.3 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .222 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .429 OBP, .333 SLG, .762 OPS

Carpenter has a good track record, and he is a former multi-All-Star that has hit well previously in the postseason.  He hasn't hit well in recent years, and he's coming off a terrible spring.  He's on the team, but right now, he looks to be a shell of his former self.  Some are hoping that he'll come around to suddenly hit nearly as well as he used to, but I wouldn't bet on it.

John Nogowski 
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .250 OBP, .250 SLG, .500 OPS, 25.0 K%, 0 WAR

He certainly played his way onto the team, and he had a tremendous spring this year.  He mashed the crap out of the baseball, and his ability to hit should bolster the team's bench.

Edmundo Sosa
2020 (STL/MLB): Did not play.
2019 (STL/MLB): .250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 SB, .450 OBP, .250 SLG, .650 OPS, 20.0 K%, 0 WAR
2019 (AAA): .291 AVG, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 2 SB, .335 OBP, .466 SLG, .801 OPS, 19.4 K%

I was a little surprised that Edmundo Sosa made the team over Jose Rondon and Max Moroff, considering that Rondon is a power-hitting infielder that started off by having a very good spring, but Rondon cooled off a bit towards the end.  I also thought Moroff was a good challenger for the backup utility infielder position as well, as he also hit well in the spring and is a switch hitter, but Sosa is thought to have a higher upside, and he is also out of options, and the Cards don't want to pass him through waivers without knowing how well he would play in the majors.  Sosa didn't have a great spring, but he played well enough and showed enough to make the team.

Outfielders (4)

Dylan Carlson
2020 (MLB): .200 AVG, 3 HR, 16 RBI, .252 OBP, .364 SLG, .616 OPS, 29.4 K%, 0.2 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .333 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .571 OBP, .444 SLG, 1.016 OPS

He was the Cards' prized hitting prospect, but they didn't call him up right away, and Carlson struggled in the majors in 2020.  He did have a good postseason, and he is a good fielder.  He has a solid set of all-around tools, but his hitting approach was fairly suspect in the majors.  Carlson will be the starter on opening day.

Tyler O’Neill
2020 (MLB): .173 AVG, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 3 SB, .261 OBP, .360 SLG, .621 OPS, 27.4 K%, 0.5 WAR, Gold Glove
2020 (Postseason): 3 GP, 0 for 0, N/A OPS

O'Neill has a tremendous set of tools, and he has a lot of pop in his bat, but his hitting approach leaves much to be desired.  He strikes a ton, but he is also a very good fielder, as evidenced by his Gold Glove win last season.

Justin Williams
2020 (MLB): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .333 OBP, .200 SLG, .533 OPS, 33.3 K%, 0 WAR

He is a hitting prospect that played well in the spring, and he will get some at bats in the majors this season.

Austin Dean (projects to get sent down when Bader comes back)
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .571 OBP, .500 SLG, 1.071 OPS, 28.6 K%, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0 for 1, 0 OBP or OPS 

He is a fairly solid hitter that hit well in the spring, but Dean has historically not been a very good fielder in the majors.  His tendency to strike out as also concerning.  It was thought that Lane Thomas would win the job, but Dean played well enough to make the team on Opening Day.

Injured:

Harrison Bader (IL)
2020 (MLB): .226 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 3 SB, .336 OBP, .443 SLG, .779 OPS, 32.0 K%, 1.0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .111 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .182 OBP, .111 SLG, .293 OPS

He is a tremendous fielder, but he's not a very good hitter, and he has an even worse hitting approach.  He projects to be the starting center fielder when he returns from the IL.

Miles Mikolas (IL)
2020 (MLB): DNP, injured

He is a solid veteran pitcher who can control his pitches, and he is a mid-tier starting pitcher.  After having a very good 2018 season, he had an up and down 2019 season, and he missed all of last season.

Kwang-Hyun Kim (IL)
2020 (MLB): 3-0, 1.62 ERA, 39 IP, 6.5 H9, 0.7 HR9, 2.8 BB9, 5.5 K9, 3.88 FIP, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 7.36, 3.2 IP, 12.3 H9, 0 HR9, 4.9 BB9, 4.9 BB

He is a solid veteran pitcher who can control his pitches, and he is a mid-tier starting pitcher.  He had a rough spring, but he's expected to provide some solid innings this year.

Dakota Hudson* (60-day IL)
2020 (MLB): 3-2, 2.77 ERA, 39 IP, 5.5 H9, 1.2 HR9, 3.5 BB9, 7.2 K9, 4.50 FIP, 0.4 WAR

He is a solid, young starting pitcher who can control his pitches, and he is a mid-tier starting pitcher.  He's out for the season though.

Sent down:

Kodi Whitley
2020 (MLB): 0-0, 1.93 ERA, 4.2 IP, 3.9 H9, 1.9 HR9, 1.9 BB9, 9.6 K9, 4.48 FIP, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 27 ERA, 0.1 IP, 27 H9, 27 HR9, 0 BB9, 0 K9

Johan Oviedo
2020 (MLB): 0-3, 5.47 ERA, 24.2 IP, 8.8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 3.6 BB9, 5.8 K9, 5.30 FIP, 0.1 WAR

Tommy Parsons*
2020 (MLB): Did not play.
2019 (College): 6-1, 2.11 ERA, 47 IP, 5.2H9, 0 HR9, 7.9 BB9, 11.9K9

Jose Rondon*
2020 (MLB): Did not play.
2019 (CHW/BAL/MLB): .196 AVG, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .263 OBP, .280 SLG, .543 OPS
2019 (AAA): .219 AVG, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .313 OBP, .356 SLG, .669 OPS

Max Moroff*
2020 (MLB): Did not play.
2019 (CLE): .125 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, .176 OBP, .250 SLG, .426 OPS
2019 (AAA): .213 AVG, 4 HR, 8 RBI, .375 OBP, .361 SLG, .736 OPS

Lane Thomas
2020 (MLB): .111 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .200 OBP, .250 SLG, .450 OPS, 32.5 K%, -0.3 WAR

Thought would make the team, but was sent down:

Jose Rondon*

Lane Thomas

Should they have made the team?

Matt Carpenter hit .186 last year, and he hit just .054 in the Spring with 0 homers, but his past proven track record helped him make the MLB roster this year.

Carlos Martinez had a 9.90 ERA last year, and he had a less than stellar 5.66 ERA in the spring, but he pitched better towards the end of the spring to be named the third starter in the team's rotation, and it also helped that Gant and Ponce de Leon were not noticeably better in the spring this year.

Current Grades for the 2021 season:
Pitchers: B-
Hitters: B-
Manager: B-

The backend of the starting rotation looks shaky, but the bullpen looks good, and I'm confident that the bullpen will pitch well.  The outfield looks a bit suspect, but I really like the group of infielders that the Cards have, and Yadier Molina is a proven, reliable veteran.

Projected Season Outcome: 3rd in the NL Central, behind the Brewers and Cubs, barely missing the playoffs

Hopefully, the Cardinals will prove my prediction wrong, but I'm not certain if the team's outfield or group of starters will be reliable enough to get this team back to the playoffs.  I am rooting for the Cardinals to win it all this year, though.

Anyways, those are my season predictions, and we'll see how everything shakes out.

Some Interesting, Stray Observations of Game 6: The Movie, and Game 6 of the 2011 World Series

Over the past couple of days, I've been blessed with the opportunity to watch both Game 6 of the 2011 World Series in which the St. Louis Cardinals came back to win in extra innings over the Texas Rangers, and third baseman David Freese was able to hit a clutch triple to tie it up late in the ninth down two outs against Neftali Feliz, and he also hit a game winning home run to propel the Cards to a game 7, as my hometown team, the Cardinals would go on to win the 2011 World Series.  That game had gotten off to a slow start, as there were several fielding errors early on, but had a brilliant build-up and ending, as the Comeback Cardinals were resilient in their victory over the Rangers.  David Freese absolutely dominated in this game, especially in crunch time.

Chicago Bulls' legendary guard, Michael Jordan makes the game-winning shot
over Utah Jazz's forward, Bryon Russell to propel the Bulls
to win their 6th NBA championship in the 1998 NBA Finals.
(Photo: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

St. Louis Cardinals' star third baseman David Freese came up big
by hitting a bases clearing triple in the ninth, and a game-winning home run
to get the Cardinals a come back win in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series,
as the Cards would eventually win in 7 games over the Texas Rangers.
(Photo: Eric Gay, Associated Press)

I also was able to watch Game 6: The Movie, which is a documentary showing game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals between the Chicago Bulls and the Utah Jazz, as shown from director Jason Hehir.  It was fun to re-watch that basketball game.  Obviously, Michael Jordan was dominant, including in the last 40 seconds of the game, and he scored 45 points and was able to get a clutch steal by ripping the ball away from Karl Malone to get a crucial offensive possession late in this contest.

Karl Malone also played very well for the Utah Jazz, but some interesting observations were that not only did Scottie Pippen have back problems, but so did John Stockton in this game.  The Bulls and Jazz were both two of the older teams in the NBA, and so both teams were battling injuries and the war of attrition in Game 6.  Antoine Carr had really good second quarter for the Jazz, as he was making mid-range jumpers and scored off of a cut, but I didn't really notice him that much after that.  Toni Kukoc also did a good job of knocking down shots for the Chicago Bulls.

Steve Kerr was a really good shooter that is one of the best spot-up shooters in NBA history, but there has been a debate of whether he could play in today's NBA.  I'd like to think that he can, as his shooting is at a premium, and always has been needed by NBA teams across generations.  However, he didn't help his case in this game though.  He did win 3 titles with the Chicago Bulls, two more as a player with the Spurs, and three as a head coach with the Golden State Warriors, so he's a well-decorated individual in sports.  In this game though, he really struggled defensively, mostly due to his athletic limitations.  He tried really hard to stay in front of Howard Eisley, but he just couldn't, and Utah was often able to capitalize as a result in that game.  Still, with Kerr's strong shooting skills and basketball IQ, I think he could've been a backup or a third-string PG as a Quinn Cook or as a better shooting Ryan Arcidiacono type in today's NBA.

Scottie Pippen was invaluable in his team's win, even when he was limited due to a bad lower back injury.  He was able to rotate to poke balls and deflect passes to get steals, he also blocked Adam Keefe's shot, and he also excelled as a low post scorer.  He mainly was used to throw entry passes to help get Michael Jordan the basketball, but his strong defensive skills still helped the Bulls significantly, even in a limited capacity.  Pippen delivered when his team needed him the most, and the Bulls were a clearly better team with him on the floor even in the condition he was in.

Dennis Rodman was able to score on a couple of tip-ins in the third quarter, and he also made a 20-footer late in the game.  Also, Utah Jazz's big men, Adam Keefe and Greg Foster played for quite awhile, and they were not very useful at all in this game.  Announcer Isiah Thomas suggested for the Bulls to run a post play for Luc Longley in the third quarter as he hadn't shot the ball yet, Longley proceeded to later miss a mid-range shot badly later in this contest.

Some controversial calls or no-calls also went down, too.  The Bulls were whistled for a lot of illegal defense calls, and it seems that they couldn't have possibly committed that many of them in this game.  In the 1990s, the rules forbade players to help down inside the post away from the ball before the post player received the basketball.  If a defending player was standing away from the ball, they had to be above the free throw line.  In today's NBA, Chicago Bulls' defense would've been perfectly acceptable.

Utah Jazz's backup point guard, Howard Eisley also appeared to make a three that was waved off due to a shot clock violation, which could not be reviewed because 1990s basketball did not have instant replay.

As for whether or not Michael Jordan pushed off or not, I don't think he did.  Bryon Russell seemed to be falling over on his own, and Jordan did a really good job of faking Russell out of his shoes to make the go-ahead winning basket to get the 1998 Chicago Bulls the series win and their 6th NBA championship.

One more look at Michael Jordan's game winning shot that he made to get the Chicago Bulls
their 6th NBA championship.
(Photo: Fernando Medina/ NBAE/ Getty Images)

The greatest player of all time Michael Jordan,
and arguably the greatest coach of all time Phil Jackson holding up
the Finals MVP, and the Larry O'Brien Trophy as the 1998 Chicago Bulls
defeated the Utah Jazz to win the title.
(Photo: JEFF HAYNES/AFP via Getty Images)

I enjoyed watching both games.  The camera view from Game 6: The Movie was very close to the court, and so it was hard at times to watch the action off the ball, and there would be some surprise scores from players off cuts.  It was an exciting game that also showed an unbiased, honest look at Game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals in High-Definition (HD).  Thanks for reading this.  Feel free to follow me on Twitter @AlanLuSTL.