Revisiting the 2019 Left Fielders' Rankings Forecast

Today, we will be evaluating the forecasts of eight different analysts that had put out their top ten rankings of left fielders for the 2019 Major League Baseball season.  Last year, the near unanimous pick to be the top left fielder entering the 2018 season was St. Louis Cardinals’ left fielder, Marcell Ozuna.  But after he had a relatively disappointing season compared to the lofty expectations that were placed upon him, Boston Red Sox’s J.D. Martinez ended up being most analysts’ pick to be the top left fielder in 2019.

This time around ,we will be looking at lists from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Eric Byrnes, and fans from social media (whom I’m counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).

So, how did we all do?  Let’s find out for ourselves, shall we?  Without further ado, based on the Fangraphs WAR metric, here are how accurate we turned out to be based on that in projecting 2019 left fielders.

2019 Left Fielders’ Rankings:

2019 LF	Alan Lu	Shredder	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Byrnes	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Ronald Acuña Jr.	2	3	3	3	3	2	4	1	5.6	1
Juan Soto	4	6	2	2	2	3	5	5	4.8	2
Michael Brantley	10	15	9	5	15	10	15	10	4.2	3
Michael Conforto	8	8	7	10	7	15	8	7	3.7	4
Tommy Pham	5	4	6	6	8	4	7	15	3.3	5
J.D. Martinez	3	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3.2	6
Joc Pederson	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	15	3	7
Marcell Ozuna	7	7	10	15	6	15	10	8	2.6	8
Andrew Benintendi	6	15	5	4	5	8	6	3	2.0	9
Ryan Braun	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	9	1.9	10
David Peralta	15	10	15	9	15	9	15	15	1.7	11
Giancarlo Stanton	1	2	4	8	4	6	1	4	0.4	12
Justin Upton	9	5	8	15	10	7	3	15	-0.2	13
Khris Davis	15	9	15	7	15	5	9	6	-1.0	14
Diff. Estimator	54	72	54	56	54	70	76	64
2019 Rank	1	7	1	4	1	6	8	5

....

The findings:

Once again, I was the most accurate analyst (though I tied for first along with Mike Petriello and Ben Lindbergh) by the Fangraphs WAR metric among all of the analysts listed above, as my outfielders' projections have turned out well once again.  Congratulations to me!

I did a very good job of projecting outfielders once again,
as my top 10 2019 left fielders list puts me in first place.
(Picture courtesy of GIPHY via Fresh Prince of Bel-Air.)

Well, I guess most of my picks were within range, I had projected Acuna and Tommy Pham to have a very good season, and I also had projected J.D. Martinez lower than most people had him.  Martinez had a down season so that kind of boded well for me here.  I did have some misses, like I did not put Joc Pederson in my top 10 list, and I had over-reached on Justin Upton and Andrew Benintendi, though that did not hurt me as much as others had also rated them high as well.

The Shredder had an okay list, but their list was more in the middle of the pack.  They missed out on Michael Brantley, and they had Washington Nationals' left fielder Juan Soto too low on their top 10 list.  The did a good job of rating Tommy Pham high, as their pick of him in the top 5 was well within range of top 10 finishers among players that were rated by analysts.  They also missed on Pederson and Benintendi, but that didn't seem to hurt them nearly as much as having rated Justin Upton too high on their list.

Mike Petriello's picks tended to be well within range, and he did a good job of rating Juan Soto, Michael Brantley, and Michael Conforto higher than most of the others on his list.  He benefitted from rating Marcell Ozuna lower than others, though he did not have Joc Pederson on his list, and he did end up rating Benintendi too high this year in 2019.

Ben Lindbergh did a good job of rating Juan Soto and Michael Conforto high, and most of his picks were within range, but he omitted Michael Brantley from his top 10 list.  Overall, I would say, I did well here, so I would give myself an A-.  The Shredder's list is not too shabby, but they rated lower than the other analysts here, so they would get a C.

In analyzing two years worth of data on who your go-to, point person should be for the 2020 left fielders' forecast (in ranking left fielders based on using the Fangraphs WAR metric), it should be the Ringer's writer, Ben Lindbergh.  Most of his picks tend to be well within range, and he also sometimes finds sleepers that others don't rate nearly as well that end up faring well later that season.

As whether or not if you should care about my left fielders' rankings list for 2020, the answer is....yes.  Yes, absolutely you should.  I placed second in forecasting accuracy compared to the other analysts in 2018, and I was tied for first in this category in 2019.  Like Ben Lindbergh, most of my picks tend to be well within range, and sometimes I find sleepers that end up faring well later during the year.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Looking Back at the 2018 Left Fielders' Forecast

About two years ago, when the St. Louis Cardinals traded for Marcell Ozuna, I had liked the move, even though the team had to part with future All-Star Sandy Alcantara, and then top prospect, center fielder Magneuris Sierra.  I would've preferred if the Cards had traded to get Christian Yelich, but this move was widely viewed as a big chess move to haul in one of the best outfielders in the game.  Many experts agreed, and he was almost a near consensus pick to be the top left fielder in the game for the 2018 MLB season.

Also, because the MLB Network had considered both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton right fielders even though both would play for the New York Yankees, there was a realistic chance that Ozuna would get the top billing as the #1 left fielder by the Shredder.  (Spoiler alert: He did indeed was named the best left fielder for 2018.)

Excited at the prospect of that being the case, I decided to join in and vote for Ozuna to be the best left fielder in the game, like many did in 2018.  I also used this as a time to test my forecasting skills and compare it to eight other analysts, which included the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Eric Byrnes, and fans from social media (whom I'm counting as one entity).

So did I and everyone else do?  Let's find out.

2018 Left Fielders:

2018 LF	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Byrnes	Fans	fWAR	FWAR Rank
Andrew Benintendi	5	8	2	6	9	7	7	9	2	4.4	1
Michael Brantley	6	15	15	15	5	15	15	15	15	3.5	2
Eddie Rosario	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	10	3.5	2
Kyle Schwarber	15	15	15	9	15	8	5	15	15	3.2	4
Justin Upton	2	3	5	2	4	5	2	1	5	3.1	5
Marcell Ozuna	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	2.8	6
Rhys Hoskins	15	15	9	5	6	3	4	15	15	2.8	6
Joc Pederson	8	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	15	2.7	8
Khris Davis	9	6	7	8	7	15	9	4	8	2.7	8
Brett Gardner	10	10	8	4	15	6	10	6	3	2.6	10
Adam Eaton	4	7	15	10	10	2	6	15	15	1.9	11
Alex Gordon	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	6	1.6	12
Marwin Gonzalez	7	9	4	15	2	15	15	5	7	1.5	13
Ryan Braun	15	4	15	15	8	15	8	7	9	1.3	14
Yoenis Cespedis	3	2	15	3	3	4	3	3	4	0.9	15
Nomar Mazara	15	15	3	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.9	15
Melky Cabrera	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.4	17
Adam Duvall	15	15	15	7	15	15	15	8	15	0.2	18
Trey Mancini	15	5	6	15	15	15	15	10	15	-0.3	19
Diff. Estimator	88	122	108	94	96	86	88	132	102
Yr Rank	2	8	7	4	5	1	2	9	6

.....

On one hand, I was majorly bummed that Marcell Ozuna did not have the impact year that I thought he would have in 2018.  So much so, that I ended up grading his season overall to be a C, as I had expected him to get on-base more, and to hit for more power last year.  It turns out that hitting is much harder when there wasn't an MVP candidate hitting in the lineup to provide as much protection, like he had in 2017 in Giancarlo Stanton.  The Cardinals missed the playoffs as Mike Matheny was fired midway through the season, but interim manager Mike Shildt made a strong push for the postseason and the team narrowly missed it, and Shildt was able to retain the manager job by staying on full-time at this position.  But it was clear that the Cardinals needed an elite hitter to provide Ozuna some protection, so in the offseason, the Cards made a big trade to swing a deal to acquire Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I also had a few misses, as I bet big on Yoenis Cespedis and Adam Eaton to have very good years, and neither finished in the top 10 in Fangraphs WAR among left fielders.  Cespedis having a significantly worse season hurt more than Eaton's disappointing year, as Eaton narrowly missed the top 10 list among left fielders that were ranked by analysts.  Plenty of people, including myself had Marwin Gonzalez in the top 10 of this list, and he did not fare quite as well as expected, either.

But I did have several things going my way.  I was one of the few people to rate Michael Brantley in the top 10, knowing that he is a versatile outfielder that can be a stellar player when healthy, and he turned in one of the best seasons among left fielders in 2018.  I also had Joc Pederson in my top 10 list, and he also had a better season than most anticipated.  It also helped that I didn't have as many misses as some of the other analysts had.  I did not pick Ryan Braun, Nomar Mazara, Alex Gordon, or some of the other left fielders, as they did not end up having great seasons in 2018.

The Shredder did not do very well in picking 2018 left fielders.  They did not have Michael Brantley, Eddie Rosario, or Kyle Schwarber in their top 10 list.  Their omission of Rhys Hoskins can be somewhat excused though, as he was not listed as an option to vote on Twitter, as he did not have nearly as many at-bats as the other players prior to the start of the season.

However, the Shredder was adamant in having both Ryan Braun and Trey Mancini in the top 10, which were curious picks at the time, and neither pick panned out for them.  Yoenis Cespedes' #2 ranking by the Shredder was also somewhat a curious pick, as he had an injury-plagued 2017 season, but he had played very well prior to that, but he did not have as good of a 2018 season as anticipated.

The winner in terms of accuracy of 2018 left fielders' forecast appears to be Ben Lindbergh, who is a writer at the Ringer.  He didn't have nearly as many misses as the other analysts in the top 10, and he was able to correctly identify Eddie Rosario, Kyle Schwarber, and Joc Pedersen as left fielders that would play well that year.    In addition, all of the sabermetric analysts on that panel (Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, and Ben Lindbergh) had selected Rhys Hoskins (whom was not listed as a name to be voted on by MLB Network on Twitter) to be on their top 10 list, and capitalized on his 2018 success.

Overall, I think I would give myself a C+ for my picks here.  I don't think my picks were outstanding by any means, but in terms of the entire picture, it was closer than most of the other analysts had.  I didn't like that my top 4 picks all disappointed in some way, but I did manage to correctly identify Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson as players that would have good seasons.  I also tried to stray away from making curveball picks like Alex Gordon, Trey Mancini, or Nomar Mazara, as my play-it-safe approach seemed to help in this case in not making bad selections for this forecast.  I think I did alright, but it could've been better.  I don't feel I was as close as I wanted to be in terms of accuracy, but the data suggested that most people weren't very close in their 2018 left fielders' forecast, either.

Thank you for reading, and there may be more to come.  Also, I would like to thank Brewers Nation for providing the results of the other panelists' top 10 lists.  Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.