Looking Back at the 2018 Left Fielders' Forecast

About two years ago, when the St. Louis Cardinals traded for Marcell Ozuna, I had liked the move, even though the team had to part with future All-Star Sandy Alcantara, and then top prospect, center fielder Magneuris Sierra.  I would've preferred if the Cards had traded to get Christian Yelich, but this move was widely viewed as a big chess move to haul in one of the best outfielders in the game.  Many experts agreed, and he was almost a near consensus pick to be the top left fielder in the game for the 2018 MLB season.

Also, because the MLB Network had considered both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton right fielders even though both would play for the New York Yankees, there was a realistic chance that Ozuna would get the top billing as the #1 left fielder by the Shredder.  (Spoiler alert: He did indeed was named the best left fielder for 2018.)

Excited at the prospect of that being the case, I decided to join in and vote for Ozuna to be the best left fielder in the game, like many did in 2018.  I also used this as a time to test my forecasting skills and compare it to eight other analysts, which included the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Eric Byrnes, and fans from social media (whom I'm counting as one entity).

So did I and everyone else do?  Let's find out.

2018 Left Fielders:

2018 LF	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Byrnes	Fans	fWAR	FWAR Rank
Andrew Benintendi	5	8	2	6	9	7	7	9	2	4.4	1
Michael Brantley	6	15	15	15	5	15	15	15	15	3.5	2
Eddie Rosario	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	10	3.5	2
Kyle Schwarber	15	15	15	9	15	8	5	15	15	3.2	4
Justin Upton	2	3	5	2	4	5	2	1	5	3.1	5
Marcell Ozuna	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	2.8	6
Rhys Hoskins	15	15	9	5	6	3	4	15	15	2.8	6
Joc Pederson	8	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	15	2.7	8
Khris Davis	9	6	7	8	7	15	9	4	8	2.7	8
Brett Gardner	10	10	8	4	15	6	10	6	3	2.6	10
Adam Eaton	4	7	15	10	10	2	6	15	15	1.9	11
Alex Gordon	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	6	1.6	12
Marwin Gonzalez	7	9	4	15	2	15	15	5	7	1.5	13
Ryan Braun	15	4	15	15	8	15	8	7	9	1.3	14
Yoenis Cespedis	3	2	15	3	3	4	3	3	4	0.9	15
Nomar Mazara	15	15	3	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.9	15
Melky Cabrera	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.4	17
Adam Duvall	15	15	15	7	15	15	15	8	15	0.2	18
Trey Mancini	15	5	6	15	15	15	15	10	15	-0.3	19
Diff. Estimator	88	122	108	94	96	86	88	132	102
Yr Rank	2	8	7	4	5	1	2	9	6

.....

On one hand, I was majorly bummed that Marcell Ozuna did not have the impact year that I thought he would have in 2018.  So much so, that I ended up grading his season overall to be a C, as I had expected him to get on-base more, and to hit for more power last year.  It turns out that hitting is much harder when there wasn't an MVP candidate hitting in the lineup to provide as much protection, like he had in 2017 in Giancarlo Stanton.  The Cardinals missed the playoffs as Mike Matheny was fired midway through the season, but interim manager Mike Shildt made a strong push for the postseason and the team narrowly missed it, and Shildt was able to retain the manager job by staying on full-time at this position.  But it was clear that the Cardinals needed an elite hitter to provide Ozuna some protection, so in the offseason, the Cards made a big trade to swing a deal to acquire Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I also had a few misses, as I bet big on Yoenis Cespedis and Adam Eaton to have very good years, and neither finished in the top 10 in Fangraphs WAR among left fielders.  Cespedis having a significantly worse season hurt more than Eaton's disappointing year, as Eaton narrowly missed the top 10 list among left fielders that were ranked by analysts.  Plenty of people, including myself had Marwin Gonzalez in the top 10 of this list, and he did not fare quite as well as expected, either.

But I did have several things going my way.  I was one of the few people to rate Michael Brantley in the top 10, knowing that he is a versatile outfielder that can be a stellar player when healthy, and he turned in one of the best seasons among left fielders in 2018.  I also had Joc Pederson in my top 10 list, and he also had a better season than most anticipated.  It also helped that I didn't have as many misses as some of the other analysts had.  I did not pick Ryan Braun, Nomar Mazara, Alex Gordon, or some of the other left fielders, as they did not end up having great seasons in 2018.

The Shredder did not do very well in picking 2018 left fielders.  They did not have Michael Brantley, Eddie Rosario, or Kyle Schwarber in their top 10 list.  Their omission of Rhys Hoskins can be somewhat excused though, as he was not listed as an option to vote on Twitter, as he did not have nearly as many at-bats as the other players prior to the start of the season.

However, the Shredder was adamant in having both Ryan Braun and Trey Mancini in the top 10, which were curious picks at the time, and neither pick panned out for them.  Yoenis Cespedes' #2 ranking by the Shredder was also somewhat a curious pick, as he had an injury-plagued 2017 season, but he had played very well prior to that, but he did not have as good of a 2018 season as anticipated.

The winner in terms of accuracy of 2018 left fielders' forecast appears to be Ben Lindbergh, who is a writer at the Ringer.  He didn't have nearly as many misses as the other analysts in the top 10, and he was able to correctly identify Eddie Rosario, Kyle Schwarber, and Joc Pedersen as left fielders that would play well that year.    In addition, all of the sabermetric analysts on that panel (Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, and Ben Lindbergh) had selected Rhys Hoskins (whom was not listed as a name to be voted on by MLB Network on Twitter) to be on their top 10 list, and capitalized on his 2018 success.

Overall, I think I would give myself a C+ for my picks here.  I don't think my picks were outstanding by any means, but in terms of the entire picture, it was closer than most of the other analysts had.  I didn't like that my top 4 picks all disappointed in some way, but I did manage to correctly identify Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson as players that would have good seasons.  I also tried to stray away from making curveball picks like Alex Gordon, Trey Mancini, or Nomar Mazara, as my play-it-safe approach seemed to help in this case in not making bad selections for this forecast.  I think I did alright, but it could've been better.  I don't feel I was as close as I wanted to be in terms of accuracy, but the data suggested that most people weren't very close in their 2018 left fielders' forecast, either.

Thank you for reading, and there may be more to come.  Also, I would like to thank Brewers Nation for providing the results of the other panelists' top 10 lists.  Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.