Analyzing The 2019 Catchers' Forecast

The next list that was discussed on the MLB Network was who would be the top 10 catchers for the 2019 baseball season.  Just like last year, San Francisco Giants’ catcher Buster Posey was the number one rated catcher for that year.  On the other hand, most of the other analysts were picking Philadelphia Phillies’ catcher J.T. Realmuto to be the top catcher in 2019, while the fans had selected St. Louis Cardinals’ catcher Yadier Molina to be tops among catchers that season.

The analysts we will assess will be as follows: myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Joe Girardi, and fans from social media (whom I’m counting as one analyst).

So, how did we all do?

2019 Catchers’ Rankings:

2019 C	Alan Lu	Shredder	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Girardi	Fans	fWAR	Rank
J.T. Realmuto	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	5.7	1
Yasmani Grandal	8	3	2	5	2	4	4	8	5.2	2
Willson Contreras	3	5	9	2	15	3	6	6	2.7	3
Gary Sanchez	7	4	7	6	3	8	2	5	2.3	4
Tyler Flowers	15	15	8	15	5	15	15	15	2.1	5
Buster Posey	2	1	3	4	4	2	3	3	1.8	6
Omar Narvaez	11	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	1.8	6
Wilson Ramos	15	8	5	3	7	7	8	7	1.4	8
Jorge Alfaro	9	15	15	15	10	15	15	15	1.3	9
Yadier Molina	4	6	4	8	8	6	5	1	1.2	10
Russell Martin	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	9	1.2	10
Yan Gomes	15	15	10	15	6	15	10	15	0.8	12
Tucker Barnhart	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	0.7	13
Kurt Suzuki	15	7	15	15	15	9	15	15	0.6	14
Mike Zunino	10	9	15	15	9	15	15	15	0.3	15
Francisco Cervelli	5	15	6	9	15	10	9	15	0.1	16
Salvador Perez	6	10	15	7	15	5	7	4	0	17
Difference Estimator	79	69	61	63	51	73	67	71
Yr Rank	8	5	2	3	1	7	4	6

......

The findings:

As you can see, this was not a good list for me, as this will have turned out to be the worst top 10 list I have made for the 2019 MLB season.  I had placed in last place amongst all of the analysts here, as I had rated Yasmani Grandal too low, I did not have Tyler Flowers or Wilson Ramos in either of my top 10 lists despite Flowers being continually praised for his pitch framing by the Sabermetric Super Panel, and I totally over-reached by predicting Zunino, Cervelli, and Perez to have good seasons in 2019, when they would not end up doing so.

Mostly, I had tried to pick defensive minded catchers from winning teams, but advanced metrics in baseball tend to favor the hitting catchers, which would also explain why Yadier Molina is so far down the list here despite putting up decent numbers in 2019.  So yeah, this list was not good for me.

Overall, this list was a big, two thumbs down for me.

The 2019 catchers' forecast did not turn out very well
for the author of this article.
(Photo courtesy of GIPHY via The Qualmist.)

The big winner here was the Ringer's writer, Ben Lindbergh, who placed first in accuracy in forecasting 2019 catchers (when using the Fangraphs' WAR).  He had rated New York Yankees' catcher Gary Sanchez the highest among all other analysts despite his down season in 2018, and Sanchez rebounded to have a very good year.  He also stayed optimistic on Tyler Flowers when everyone else went away from predicting him to be a top 10 finisher, as Flowers was rated well by advanced metrics this year in 2019.  Mostly, a good number of his picks were well within range of how they finished this season.

The Shredder seemed to do an okay job of making picks here.  They were within range for the top four finishers among catchers that were ranked by analysts in 2019, and they also had Wilson Ramos in the lower half of their top 10 list.  However, they over-reached by predicting Kurt Suzuki, Mike Zunino, and Salvador Perez to fare well when advanced metrics suggested that they did not have a great year this season.

In analyzing the past two years worth of data, this would suggest that the go-to, point person for your 2020 catchers rankings' forecast would be the Ringer's writer, Ben Lindbergh.  He has placed first in accuracy in making top 10 lists of catchers using the Fangraphs' WAR method of the past two seasons, as his picks always tend to be within range, and his optimistic view of Tyler Flowers seems to always help him here.

As for myself, I would give myself a D.  My list was not very good, but I did manage to be within range on Seattle Mariners' catcher Omar Narvaez and Miami Marlins' catcher Jorge Alfaro, only that I probably should have placed Narvaez higher on my top 10 list.  The Shredder I would say did a better job than I did here, as they were within range for plenty of catchers at the top, and they also rated Wilson Ramos in the top 10, but did over-reach on several of their picks while having placed in the middle of the pack as a whole, so I will give the Shredder a C+ grade.

Also, in terms of whether you should listen to me when I make my 2020 catchers' forecast....based on my research and findings, the answer will be.....no.  No, you shouldn't.  My catchers' forecasts have turned out to be one of the worst forecasts of positions I've made, probably because I value Yadier Molina, defense, and catchers on winning teams far more than other analysts do.  I'm also kind of bitter that analytics haven't been too kind to Yadi recently. 

I also would like to point out one more thing.  I have a huge bone to pick with how the WAR formula rate catchers, as their entire system of evaluating catchers is flawed in general.  Namely, they overvalue pitch framing, and undervalue other concepts of defense, like blocking balls in the dirt, throwing runners out, and signal calling. 

I would like to know, if Atlanta Braves' catcher, Tyler Flowers is really the great catcher that analytics makes him out to be, then how come he played in just 85 regular season games, and that he played in just 2 games in the NLDS against my team, the St. Louis Cardinals, and that Flowers only had one plate appearance?  Why didn't their manager, Brian Snitker force Flowers to be the starting catcher for most of their pitchers in the playoffs, and why did he sit behind Brian McCann in the NLDS?  I would like to know that answer. 

Because, my underlying hypothesis is that Atlanta Braves' pitchers prefer Brian McCann.  That while Flowers may be good at pitch framing, his potential lack of signal calling, ability to throw runners, or ability to block balls may have put him out of favor with his pitchers over the course of the season.  Flowers also led the National League in passed balls.  So in my opinion, Flowers is NOT the great defensive catcher people make him out to be.  For all his pitch framing, there are other factors at play that lead him to getting reduced playing time over the course of the season.  Okay, rant over.

That aside, the catchers' rankings' forecast in 2020 is one list you can ignore me as my lists in those categories haven't turned out too well for me so far.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.