To start the 2019 season, the MLB Network asked people and their analysts who the top second basemen would be for the upcoming year. Last season, there were a lot of surprises at the top, and not many analysts' guesses were very accurate on second basemen in the 2018 season. What better way to kick off the year than to start a list that would be full of surprises?
So the analysts that we will be assessing here in terms of the accuracy of their forecasts will be me (Alan Lu), the Shredder, MLB.com writer Mike Petriello, SABR's president Vince Gennaro, the Ringer writer Ben Lindbergh, MLB Network's host Brian Kenny, former Seattle Mariners' player and MLB Network analyst Harold Reynolds, and the fans from social media (whom I'm counting as one giant entity for simplicity purposes). The only difference this time around, is that Bill James' list was not included for 2019, at least according to the source I'm going off of, so there will be 8 analysts' forecasts to assess this time around.
Last year, Mike Petriello had the most accurate list overall, and Ben Lindbergh came in a close second, while the Shredder had some hits and misses as they had finished in the bottom half in terms accuracy among all of the positions that were involved in 2018. In addition, right fielders and starting pitchers were the positions that analysts tended to be the most accurate on that year, while analysts tended to miss the most on second basemen and relievers for that season.
So for the 2019 second basemen list, how did we all do? Let's see for ourselves.
2019 Second Basemen:
....
Methodology:
I assessed each analyst's top 10 list, and if they listed an 11th player, or an honorable mention list, that was also included. For each player that wasn't included a 15 number was assessed to approximation purposes so that the similarity findings can be assessed for each analyst.
The Findings:
As you can see, the list turns out to be a crapshoot once again, and analysts turned out to be very inaccurate in general in forecasting how well the second basemen would fare in 2019. While this was generally bad for the analysts, this also meant something else in its entirety.
The fans placed first once again in being the most accurate in forecasting second basemen, this time for the 2019 season, while the Shredder surprisingly finished last in forecasting accuracy here. So from this list, the fans seemed to have very good predictive power specifically in making selections in the second base category. Also, for the second straight year, Houston Astros' second basemen Jose Altuve was the consensus number one choice, but once again, he finished right in the middle of the pack.
The fans actually did a great job of forecasting second basemen in relation to the other analysts here. They correctly identified Ozzie Albies and Gleyber Torres as top 5 finishers among players that were ranked by analysts here, and they also had ranked Kolten Wong the highest among any other analyst, as Wong turned in a very good season in 2019. Their misses did not impact them that much, as the net loss was either minimal or none, since others also missed on Robinson Cano and Scooter Gennett. The fans also had the good fortune to not pick Mets' second baseman Jed Lowrie, who ended up mysteriously missing most of the season this year.
As for myself, I think I did an okay job, but it wasn't great by any means. Having three players in my honorable mention list helped improve my ranking a bit, and it did help me that I had ranked Ozzie Albies near the top, and was the only other analyst to have ranked Kolten Wong in the top 10, as Wong had a very good regular season in 2019. However, I also missed the mark by not putting Ketel Marte in my top 10 list, I ranked D.J. LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres too low, and I had overreached by picking Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, and Joey Wendle to fare well when they would not end up doing so.
The Shredder actually placed last here, as they missed on several names at the top, such as Ketel Marte, Ozzie Albies, and Kolten Wong, while they missed significantly by overreaching on players such as Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, and Scooter Gennett. A handful of the Shredder's projections missed the mark as half of their picks underperformed considerably. They did correctly identify Gleyber Torres as a top 10 finisher of his position, but that helped them minimally as most others also had him in the top 10 on their list as well.
For this list, I don't think either myself or the Shredder did that great here. I will give myself a C- for my 2019 second basemen forecast, and the Shredder a D for their forecast.
Surprisingly, from two years worth of data, the go-to, pinpoint person or analyst you should listen to that may have the most accurate forecast of second basemen for the 2020 MLB season would be.....the FANS!
This is an interesting start to the findings of top lists of the 2019 MLB season, and there may be more to come. As for myself, whether or not if you should care about my opinion on 2020 second basemen would be.....meh. I've rated in the middle of the pack in both years regarding this category, but in general the findings for the past two seasons regarding the second basemen forecast is a big win for the fans.
Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts. (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
So the analysts that we will be assessing here in terms of the accuracy of their forecasts will be me (Alan Lu), the Shredder, MLB.com writer Mike Petriello, SABR's president Vince Gennaro, the Ringer writer Ben Lindbergh, MLB Network's host Brian Kenny, former Seattle Mariners' player and MLB Network analyst Harold Reynolds, and the fans from social media (whom I'm counting as one giant entity for simplicity purposes). The only difference this time around, is that Bill James' list was not included for 2019, at least according to the source I'm going off of, so there will be 8 analysts' forecasts to assess this time around.
Last year, Mike Petriello had the most accurate list overall, and Ben Lindbergh came in a close second, while the Shredder had some hits and misses as they had finished in the bottom half in terms accuracy among all of the positions that were involved in 2018. In addition, right fielders and starting pitchers were the positions that analysts tended to be the most accurate on that year, while analysts tended to miss the most on second basemen and relievers for that season.
So for the 2019 second basemen list, how did we all do? Let's see for ourselves.
2019 Second Basemen:
| 2019 2B | Alan Lu | Shredder | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Reynolds | Fans | fWAR | Rank |
| Ketel Marte | 15 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7.1 | 1 |
| D.J. LeMahieu | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Ozzie Albies | 2 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4.6 | 3 |
| Kolten Wong | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 3.7 | 4 |
| Gleyber Torres | 11 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3.6 | 5 |
| Jose Altuve | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.5 | 6 |
| Whit Merrifield | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2.9 | 7 |
| Chris Taylor | 4 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 1.7 | 8 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 14 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.7 | 8 |
| Brian Dozier | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 1.7 | 8 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 1.3 | 11 |
| Jurickson Profar | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.3 | 11 |
| Robinson Cano | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 13 |
| Joey Wendle | 8 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 0.6 | 14 |
| Ben Zobrist | 9 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0.2 | 15 |
| Jed Lowrie | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 15 | -0.1 | 16 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | -0.4 | 17 |
| Scooter Gennett | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 4 | -0.5 | 18 |
| Josh Harrison | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | -0.6 | 19 |
| Difference Estimator | 116 | 136 | 118 | 108 | 116 | 114 | 116 | 98 | ||
| Yr Rank | 4 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
....
Methodology:
I assessed each analyst's top 10 list, and if they listed an 11th player, or an honorable mention list, that was also included. For each player that wasn't included a 15 number was assessed to approximation purposes so that the similarity findings can be assessed for each analyst.
The Findings:
As you can see, the list turns out to be a crapshoot once again, and analysts turned out to be very inaccurate in general in forecasting how well the second basemen would fare in 2019. While this was generally bad for the analysts, this also meant something else in its entirety.
The fans placed first once again in being the most accurate in forecasting second basemen, this time for the 2019 season, while the Shredder surprisingly finished last in forecasting accuracy here. So from this list, the fans seemed to have very good predictive power specifically in making selections in the second base category. Also, for the second straight year, Houston Astros' second basemen Jose Altuve was the consensus number one choice, but once again, he finished right in the middle of the pack.
The fans actually did a great job of forecasting second basemen in relation to the other analysts here. They correctly identified Ozzie Albies and Gleyber Torres as top 5 finishers among players that were ranked by analysts here, and they also had ranked Kolten Wong the highest among any other analyst, as Wong turned in a very good season in 2019. Their misses did not impact them that much, as the net loss was either minimal or none, since others also missed on Robinson Cano and Scooter Gennett. The fans also had the good fortune to not pick Mets' second baseman Jed Lowrie, who ended up mysteriously missing most of the season this year.
As for myself, I think I did an okay job, but it wasn't great by any means. Having three players in my honorable mention list helped improve my ranking a bit, and it did help me that I had ranked Ozzie Albies near the top, and was the only other analyst to have ranked Kolten Wong in the top 10, as Wong had a very good regular season in 2019. However, I also missed the mark by not putting Ketel Marte in my top 10 list, I ranked D.J. LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres too low, and I had overreached by picking Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, and Joey Wendle to fare well when they would not end up doing so.
The Shredder actually placed last here, as they missed on several names at the top, such as Ketel Marte, Ozzie Albies, and Kolten Wong, while they missed significantly by overreaching on players such as Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, and Scooter Gennett. A handful of the Shredder's projections missed the mark as half of their picks underperformed considerably. They did correctly identify Gleyber Torres as a top 10 finisher of his position, but that helped them minimally as most others also had him in the top 10 on their list as well.
For this list, I don't think either myself or the Shredder did that great here. I will give myself a C- for my 2019 second basemen forecast, and the Shredder a D for their forecast.
Surprisingly, from two years worth of data, the go-to, pinpoint person or analyst you should listen to that may have the most accurate forecast of second basemen for the 2020 MLB season would be.....the FANS!
 |
| That's right! You the fans, have had the most accurate forecast of projecting top 10 rankings of second basemen for the past two seasons. (Picture courtesy of tektite via tenor.com) |
This is an interesting start to the findings of top lists of the 2019 MLB season, and there may be more to come. As for myself, whether or not if you should care about my opinion on 2020 second basemen would be.....meh. I've rated in the middle of the pack in both years regarding this category, but in general the findings for the past two seasons regarding the second basemen forecast is a big win for the fans.
Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts. (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
No comments:
Post a Comment
This is the comment form message. This is also a reminder to be courteous and respectful. Also, no spam.