Since we'll be recapping forecasts of top position players and pitchers for the 2018 MLB season, we'll be revisiting predictions for second basemen that year. Unlike the right fielders' list, most people whiffed at the top and middle of the 2018 second basemen list, as Fangraphs' WAR had three unlikely candidates that finished atop their rankings for that position.
Ozzie Albies was not listed as a candidate that could be voted on Twitter, so he did not end up on my list, nor the Shredder, or fans. Granted, I would've heavily considered Albies if he were, as he had played very well in limited playing time the year before, and I had considered him to be a sleeper.
Most of the second basemen that people picked skewed older, so what had generally happened was that those selected to fare well generally tended to go into decline to have disappointing seasons, and plenty of under the radar players ended up rising to the top.
One commonality was that everybody chose Jose Altuve to be the best second baseman in 2018, myself included, but one surprising statistic was that he ended up finishing not first, but 4th rather, in Fangraphs WAR amongst second basemen that were picked by analysts that year.
Here, I will be looking back at various analysts' picks, which will be myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Harold Reynolds, and fans from social media (who will be counted as one entity for simplicity purposes).
On January 12th, 2018, I made my selections for the top 10 right fielders' list via Twitter. So how well did I fare here? Let's find out through this table listed below:
.......
Oh, boy. Just about everyone had a terrible time predicting second basemen in 2018. (That, along with relief pitchers, but we'll likely get to that in a later post.)
Not many analysts selected Javier Baez or Whit Merrifield, and virtually no one picked Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Ozzie Albies, or Starlin Castro to finish in the top 10 in this category.
While everyone successfully picked Jose Altuve and Robinson Cano to be top 10 finishers among players that were ranked here, everyone missed hard by predicting Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, and Jonathan Schoop to fare very well when they did not end up being top 10 finishers among second basemen.
_
As for how I did, I think I did okay, but I could've done a better job making my picks. On the plus side, I had Javier Baez on my list, and he actually finished tops amongst second basemen in Fangraphs WAR for the 2018 season. Ian Kinsler and D.J. LeMahieu also played fairly well that year.
On the other hand, like many others, I bet on Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Schoop, Neil Walker, and Dustin Pedroia to fare well, and none of them had good seasons in 2018.
The Shredder did not do so hot, either. They missed on most of the top 10 finishers among those that were ranked by analysts, which include Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield, Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Ozzie Albies, and Starlin Castro. Like myself, their picks of Dozier, Murphy, Schoop, Walker, and Pedroia did not pan out at all. On the bright side, their pick of LeMahieu to finish in the top 10 turned out to be one of their better picks among second basemen that year.
In this category, the fans from social media actually did the best job in terms of forecasting accuracy on 2018 second basemen. That's right.....the FANS!
They had Javier Baez ranked 2 on their list, and he finished tops amongst 2018 second basemen in Fangraphs WAR. They also picked Whit Merrifield and Starlin Castro to finish in the top 10, and both did so amongst the players on this list. They bet big on Baez, and he rewarded them for their faith. Good job, fans.
Overall, I would give myself a C for my picks of 2018 second basemen. I didn't do so well here, but neither did most of the analysts (except fans), but since I was picking off of the options Twitter gave me, I wasn't left with a whole lot of enticing choices. A good handful of my picks did poorly, but picking Baez to finish in the top 10 may have been the saving grace for my 2018 second basemen forecast here.
For who everyone else picked, you can view it from Brewers Nation. (It's kind of ironic, since I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Also, hope you enjoyed reading this, and you can follow me on Twitter @AlanLuSTL.
Ozzie Albies was not listed as a candidate that could be voted on Twitter, so he did not end up on my list, nor the Shredder, or fans. Granted, I would've heavily considered Albies if he were, as he had played very well in limited playing time the year before, and I had considered him to be a sleeper.
Most of the second basemen that people picked skewed older, so what had generally happened was that those selected to fare well generally tended to go into decline to have disappointing seasons, and plenty of under the radar players ended up rising to the top.
One commonality was that everybody chose Jose Altuve to be the best second baseman in 2018, myself included, but one surprising statistic was that he ended up finishing not first, but 4th rather, in Fangraphs WAR amongst second basemen that were picked by analysts that year.
Here, I will be looking back at various analysts' picks, which will be myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Harold Reynolds, and fans from social media (who will be counted as one entity for simplicity purposes).
On January 12th, 2018, I made my selections for the top 10 right fielders' list via Twitter. So how well did I fare here? Let's find out through this table listed below:
| 2018 2B | Alan Lu | Shredder | James | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Reynolds | Fans | fWAR | FWAR Rank |
| Javier Baez | 8 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Whit Merrifield | 15 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Jed Lowrie | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Jose Altuve | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.9 | 4 |
| Scooter Gennett | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Ozzie Albies | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 3.8 | 6 |
| Robinson Cano | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | 7 |
| Starlin Castro | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 2.3 | 8 |
| Ian Kinsler | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 2.2 | 9 |
| D.J. LeMahieu | 10 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 2.1 | 10 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 15 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 2.1 | 10 |
| Brian Dozier | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.9 | 12 |
| Daniel Murphy | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0.8 | 13 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 14 |
| Josh Harrison | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 0.3 | 15 |
| Neil Walker | 9 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 0.1 | 16 |
| Joe Panik | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.1 | 16 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 6 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 5 | -0.1 | 18 |
| Diff.Estimator | 120 | 124 | 104 | 100 | 124 | 122 | 134 | 108 | 96 | ||
| Yr Rank | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
.......
 |
| 2018 was not a great year for forecasting second basemen. (Picture courtesy of The Odyssey Online.) |
Oh, boy. Just about everyone had a terrible time predicting second basemen in 2018. (That, along with relief pitchers, but we'll likely get to that in a later post.)
Not many analysts selected Javier Baez or Whit Merrifield, and virtually no one picked Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Ozzie Albies, or Starlin Castro to finish in the top 10 in this category.
While everyone successfully picked Jose Altuve and Robinson Cano to be top 10 finishers among players that were ranked here, everyone missed hard by predicting Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, and Jonathan Schoop to fare very well when they did not end up being top 10 finishers among second basemen.
_
As for how I did, I think I did okay, but I could've done a better job making my picks. On the plus side, I had Javier Baez on my list, and he actually finished tops amongst second basemen in Fangraphs WAR for the 2018 season. Ian Kinsler and D.J. LeMahieu also played fairly well that year.
On the other hand, like many others, I bet on Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Schoop, Neil Walker, and Dustin Pedroia to fare well, and none of them had good seasons in 2018.
The Shredder did not do so hot, either. They missed on most of the top 10 finishers among those that were ranked by analysts, which include Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield, Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Ozzie Albies, and Starlin Castro. Like myself, their picks of Dozier, Murphy, Schoop, Walker, and Pedroia did not pan out at all. On the bright side, their pick of LeMahieu to finish in the top 10 turned out to be one of their better picks among second basemen that year.
In this category, the fans from social media actually did the best job in terms of forecasting accuracy on 2018 second basemen. That's right.....the FANS!
They had Javier Baez ranked 2 on their list, and he finished tops amongst 2018 second basemen in Fangraphs WAR. They also picked Whit Merrifield and Starlin Castro to finish in the top 10, and both did so amongst the players on this list. They bet big on Baez, and he rewarded them for their faith. Good job, fans.
Overall, I would give myself a C for my picks of 2018 second basemen. I didn't do so well here, but neither did most of the analysts (except fans), but since I was picking off of the options Twitter gave me, I wasn't left with a whole lot of enticing choices. A good handful of my picks did poorly, but picking Baez to finish in the top 10 may have been the saving grace for my 2018 second basemen forecast here.
For who everyone else picked, you can view it from Brewers Nation. (It's kind of ironic, since I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
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