A while back, predictions were made on who would be the best right fielders in baseball for the 2018 MLB season. I decided to see how I would stack up against the Shredder, as well as seven other analysts (in this case, fans will be counted as one entity), to see how well my predictions would go for that year.
In terms of how I did, I think some of my picks were good, but there were definitely others that I would've liked to have taken back. My Betts pick to be #1 turned out to be correct, but several of my other choices fared poorly in 2018. I would grade my forecasting of 2018 right fielders to be a D+. To sum it up in other words, my picks in this category did not tend to pan out as well as I hoped that year. Better luck next time.
So in this case, we will be looking at my forecast (Alan Lu), Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Cliff Floyd, and fans from social media to see who we picked. Twitter had not mentioned Andrew McCutchen as a candidate to be selected for right field, so I did not know I could select him for that position there, and because of that, he also was not included on The Shredder's or the fans list.
2018 Right Fielders:
This was the third list that they had put out, as I had tweeted out my right fielders' list on January 12th, 2018. With this table below, here is who everybody had forecasted for the 2018 MLB Season:
This was the third list that they had put out, as I had tweeted out my right fielders' list on January 12th, 2018. With this table below, here is who everybody had forecasted for the 2018 MLB Season:
| 2018 RF | Alan Lu | Shredder | James | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Floyd | Fans | fWAR | FWAR Rank |
| Mookie Betts | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10.4 | 1 |
| J.D. Martinez | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Aaron Judge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Mitch Haniger | 10 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4.3 | 5 |
| Bryce Harper | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3.4 | 6 |
| Nicholas Castellanos | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 3.0 | 7 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 15 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 2.7 | 8 |
| Jason Heyward | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 2.0 | 9 |
| Yasiel Puig | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 1.8 | 10 |
| Josh Reddick | 15 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 1.1 | 11 |
| Domingo Santana | 15 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.7 | 12 |
| Avisail Garcia | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 0.1 | 13 |
| Jay Bruce | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 0.1 | 13 |
| Kole Calhoun | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 15 |
| Steven Souza Jr. | 8 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.4 | 16 |
| Aaron Altherr | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.5 | 17 |
| Dexter Fowler | 6 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | -1.1 | 18 |
| Difference Estimator | 85 | 71 | 55 | 72 | 73 | 45 | 71 | 61 | 77 | ||
| Yr Rank | 9 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
So, you may ask, how did I do?
....
At first glance, it seemed like I did alright. I correctly picked who the best right fielder would be for the 2018 MLB season, Mookie Betts, and I had picked 6 of the top 10 finishers in that position among players who were ranked in the top ten at one point by analysts.
However, on another viewing, my list wasn't as good as it could've been. I also picked a handful of players that ended up having down seasons, such as Dexter Fowler, whose falling out with Mike Matheny and season-ended injury negatively impacted his 2018 season, Steven Souza Jr. had a very bad season in which no team brought him back in 2019, and Kole Calhoun and Avisail Garcia all had lackluster years in 2018.
The Shredder seemed to do a fairly average of making its selections here. It didn't get the top player right, as it had picked Aaron Judge instead of Mookie Betts, but like me, it had correctly picked 6 of the top 10 finishers in that position. While they also had a handful of players who missed the top 10 in Fangraphs WAR in Josh Reddick, Domingo Santana, Avisail Garcia, and Dexter Fowler, there misses weren't as big as mine, as I had banked heavily on Dexter Fowler, Kole Calhoun, and Steven Souza Jr., whom unfortunately turned in some of the worst performances among right fielders in the 2018 season.
The big winner in predicting right fielders for the 2018 season was Ben Lindbergh, who is a writer at the Ringer. Like me, he correctly picked Mookie Betts to finish as the season's best right fielder in 2018. But he also correctly identified Andrew McCutchen and Yasiel Puig as others that would finish in the top 10 among right fielders out of those that were ranked in the top 10 lists by an analyst. He didn't have any big misses, as Josh Reddick and Domingo Santana came relatively close to cracking the list than some of the other outfielders that were predicted to fare well that year.
In looking at how well people overall had picked right fielders, they tended to be closer in forecasting them than any other position for the 2018 season. People didn't seem to be far off in making their selections, as most had over half of their picks to turn out successfully that year.
....
In looking at how well people overall had picked right fielders, they tended to be closer in forecasting them than any other position for the 2018 season. People didn't seem to be far off in making their selections, as most had over half of their picks to turn out successfully that year.
....
In terms of how I did, I think some of my picks were good, but there were definitely others that I would've liked to have taken back. My Betts pick to be #1 turned out to be correct, but several of my other choices fared poorly in 2018. I would grade my forecasting of 2018 right fielders to be a D+. To sum it up in other words, my picks in this category did not tend to pan out as well as I hoped that year. Better luck next time.
For the entire list, you can view it from Brewers Nation. (It's kind of ironic, since I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and you can give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
Thank you for reading, and you can give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
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