Revisiting the 2018 Center Fielders' Forecast

The last 2018 top 10 list was in predicting how center fielders would fare for that season.  Los Angeles Angels' outfielder, Mike Trout was largely viewed as the best of that position, as he was a near-unanimous pick to be selected for the top spot to start the year.

Also, the Milwaukee Brewers had acquired both Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, so the Shredder rated both of them as center fielders, even though they would go on to play for the same team.

I wanted to test myself to see how my predictions would stack up against the other analysts.  Here we will be looking at the results of myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Preston Wilson, and the fans from social media (whom I counting as one analyst for simplicity purposes).

So how did I do?  Well, here's how we all did.

2018 Center Fielders:

2018 CF	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Wilson	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Mike Trout	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	1	9.8	1
Christian Yelich	3	6	4	6	15	4	6	10	15	7.6	2
Lorenzo Cain	7	5	6	4	15	6	4	6	15	5.7	3
Aaron Hicks	15	15	15	15	5	15	15	15	15	5.0	4
Tommy Pham	6	2	15	8	3	9	10	4	8	4.1	5
Chris Taylor	15	8	15	10	9	15	9	5	15	3.1	6
Michael Conforto	15	9	15	15	8	15	15	9	10	3.0	7
Ender Inciarte	15	15	5	9	6	15	15	7	4	3.0	7
George Springer	2	4	3	2	4	2	2	2	2	2.9	9
Charlie Blackmon	4	3	2	3	2	3	3	1	3	2.8	10
Jackie Bradley Jr.	8	15	9	15	15	10	7	15	7	2.8	10
A.J. Pollock	15	10	10	15	7	8	15	15	15	2.6	12
Kevin Pillar	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	6	2.0	13
Kevin Kiermaier	5	7	7	5	15	5	5	8	9	1.6	14
Odubel Herrera	9	15	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	0.9	15
Byron Buxton	10	15	8	7	15	7	8	15	5	-0.3	16
Diff. Estimator	83	61	79	75	65	83	79	61	97
Yr Rank	7	1	5	4	3	7	5	1	9

......

I had some good picks, and not so good ones, but overall, I think I could've done better here.  Like virtually everyone else, I picked Mike Trout to be the top center fielder in 2018, and he certainly ended up being that from a Fangraphs WAR standpoint.

I also rated Christian Yelich to be a top 3 finisher, and he turned in an excellent season, as his fangraphs WAR only trailed Trout among players listed here.  I also was well aware that then St. Louis Cardinals' center fielder, Tommy Pham had turned in an excellent 2017 season, and I had correctly picked him to have a very good 2018 season, even though most of his stellar production ended up helping the Tampa Bay Rays after the midseason trade.

However, George Springer and Charlie Blackmon did not fare as well as expected, and I swung and missed with my predictions on Kevin Kiermaier, Jackie Bradley Jr., Odubel Herrera, and Byron Buxton.  Overall, I had plenty of misses as well, which hurt my score more so than expected.

The Shredder did a very good job of making their 2018 center fielders' picks overall.  I was kind of surprised that they had Tommy Pham as the second-best center fielder for the 2018 season, but even so, Pham turned in another solid year that season.  They also had correctly identified Chris Taylor and Michael Conforto as players that would fare well, and the Shredder's misses did not hurt them nearly as much as for the other analysts.

Also, former St. Louis Cardinals' outfielder, Preston Wilson also quietly had a very good forecast of 2018 center fielders.  He was the renegade analyst who decided to not pick Mike Trout to be his top center fielder for the 2018 season, but he did correctly identify Tommy Pham and Chris Taylor as players that would have good seasons that year.  He was in the ball park and within range on a lot of center fielders listed here, and he also correctly picked Ender Inciarte to fare well that season as well.

Overall, I would give myself a C grade for my 2018 center fielders' forecast.  I had some good picks in projecting Yelich and Pham to have very good seasons, but I also had plenty of misses as well.  I got some hits at the top, but I also missed more often than I should have.  Overall, my list was a rather "meh" list.

Here's my 2018 Report Card on my 2018 positions' forecast on baseball players:

2018 Catchers: C
2018 First Basemen: A
2018 Second Basemen: C
2018 Shortstops: B
2018 Third Basemen: C
2018 Left Fielders: C+
2018 Center Fielders: C
2018 Right Fielders: D+
2018 Starting Pitchers: D
2018 Relief Pitchers: D-

Alan Lu's 2018 Baseball Forecast Grade: C

Here's the Shredder's 2018 Report Card on how they rated players via their top 10 lists:

2018 Catchers: B
2018 First Basemen: A-
2018 Second Basemen: D
2018 Shortstops: D+
2018 Third Basemen: D+
2018 Left Fielders: D
2018 Center Fielders: A
2018 Right Fielders: C+
2018 Starting Pitchers: D
2018 Relief Pitchers: C-

The Shredder's 2018 Baseball Forecast Grade: C

(assessment from myself, Alan Lu)
_

So in me vs. the Shredder among making picks for the 2018 MLB season, I will say, this one ends in a tie.  It can be surmised that neither I nor them definitively made better picks than the other when judging the forecasts as a whole.

To sum it up, and I gave this a shot, and I had some swings and misses.  You win some, and you lose some.  Well, hope you enjoyed this, and thank you for reading.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Evaluating the 2018 Pitchers' Forecast

Since we'll be revisiting both the starting pitchers and relivers' top 10 rankings and predictions for the 2018 season, I have decided to combine those all into one post.  We'll be looking at nine analysts each, with the constants being me (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, and the fans from social media (whom I'm counting as one entity for simplicity purposes).  Then, the baseball expert for the starting pitchers was John Smoltz, and the baseball expert for relievers was Dan Plesac.

So how well did we all do that year in those categories?  Here are some findings.

2018 Starting Pitchers:

2018 SP	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Smoltz	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Jacob deGrom	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	8	9	9.0	1
Max Scherzer	4	4	2	2	3	2	2	1	2	7.5	2
Justin Verlander	6	9	3	9	7	9	5	5	5	6.6	3
Chris Sale	1	3	5	4	2	1	4	4	4	6.2	4
Corey Kluber	3	2	1	3	1	3	1	3	3	5.5	5
Luis Severino	15	15	15	8	6	7	15	15	8	5.4	6
Carlos Carrasco	8	8	8	6	8	6	15	9	15	5.2	7
Noah Syndergaard	5	7	15	7	9	15	6	15	7	4.2	8
Kyle Hendricks	15	10	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	3.5	9
Clayton Kershaw	2	1	4	1	4	4	3	2	1	3.3	10
Zack Greinke	7	15	7	10	15	15	8	6	15	2.8	11
Stephen Strasburg	9	5	6	5	5	5	10	7	10	2.4	12
Carlos Martinez	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	2.1	13
Jake Arrieta	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	1.9	14
Madison Bumgarner	10	6	9	15	15	8	7	15	6	1.4	15
Shohei Ohtani	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	1.0	16
Diff. Estimator	67	71	71	53	59	63	63	59	57
Yr Rank	7	8	8	1	3	5	5	4	2

...

I went into that year confident in my starting pitcher choices, but it did not turn out as well as hoped.  I did not expect Jacob deGrom to thoroughly dominate the majors in 2018.  While I had thought he would have a good year, I had left him off my list, so that hurts my list here.  Also, I did not predict Luis Severino nor Kyle Hendricks to be one of the best pitchers, as both of them ended up in the top 10 among pitchers ranked by analysts here.  On the other hand, I did rate Noah Syndergaard in my top 10 list, so there's that.

The Shredder did not do so well, either.  Like myself, it did not have deGrom nor Severino in their top 10 list, which would be a negative mark on their forecasting accuracy of starting pitchers here in the 2018 season.  They did have Kyle Hendricks in their top 10 list though, which was a positive, but they bet big on Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, and Madison Bumgarner, and all of them had relatively disappointing seasons.

MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello had the best list of forecasting 2018 starting pitchers.  Though he didn't have deGrom on his list either, he correctly identified Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard as  top 10 pitchers among players ranked on this list.  While everybody swung and missed at the idea of Kershaw being one of the best pitchers for that year as he ended up being plagued with injuries, Petriello was within range on most starting pitchers than the other analysts.

So here is the relievers' list, who people picked, and how we all did.

2018 Relief Pitchers:

2018 RP	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Plesac	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Felipe Vazquez	15	15	15	4	15	10	10	15	8	2.1	1
Sean Doolittle	15	15	15	7	5	15	15	15	15	1.9	2
Aroldis Chapman	8	8	10	6	15	4	4	5	4	1.8	3
Dellin Betances	6	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	1.7	4
Chad Green	15	4	15	9	15	15	5	9	7	1.7	4
David Robertson	15	15	5	15	7	15	15	8	15	1.4	6
Craig Kimbrel	2	3	1	2	2	2	3	2	2	1.3	7
Brad Hand	10	9	15	15	15	9	15	15	10	1.2	8
Roberto Osuna	5	15	15	5	3	5	6	15	9	1.1	9
Corey Knebel	15	7	6	15	15	6	15	7	15	1.0	10
Alex Colome	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.9	11
Wade Davis	15	15	3	15	10	15	8	3	6	0.8	12
Ken Giles	15	15	7	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.8	12
Brandon Morrow	15	15	15	15	6	15	15	15	15	0.7	14
Andrew Miller	3	2	4	3	4	3	1	4	3	0.4	15
Archie Bradley	7	5	15	15	15	8	7	6	15	0.4	15
Kenley Jansen	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0.3	17
Raisel Iglesias	9	10	9	15	15	7	15	15	15	0.3	17
Pat Neshek	15	15	15	15	15	15	9	10	15	0.3	17
Ryan Madson	15	15	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	0.2	20
Zach Britton	15	6	15	15	15	15	15	15	5	0.1	21
Chris Devenski	4	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	15	-0.1	22
Cody Allen	15	15	15	10	9	15	15	15	15	-0.1	22
Diff. Estimator	163	159	159	137	161	151	147	155	137
Yr Rank	9	6	6	1	8	4	3	5	1

....

It seems that no one did especially well in ranking relievers, as a lot of different players were picked, and like the 2018 second basemen list, this list was also a crapshoot.

Some people had the good presence of mind in picking Pittsburgh Pirates' reliever Felipe (Rivero) Vazquez to be in their top 10 list, and he was the best reliever in Fangraphs WAR among all relievers ranked on this list.  There were also some that had picked Roberto Osuna, who pitched fairly well, although he would be plagued with a domestic violence charge late in that season.

However, not many analysts picked Sean Doolittle, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, or Brad Hand to be in their top 10 list.  Also, many people picked San Diego Padres' closer Kenley Jansen to be the  best reliever in baseball, but he did not go on to pitch nearly as well as hoped that year.  Andrew Miller would go on to have an injury-plagued year with the Cleveland Indians, and several other relievers were chosen for top 10 lists that in hindsight, probably shouldn't have been.

I was terrible at forecasting relievers in 2018, and judging from my 2019 list, my prediction is that my 2019 relievers' prediction would be terrible as well.  I left off four of the top 6 relievers in Fangraphs WAR among those that were ranked on this list, and three of my top 5 relievers missed the top 10 bar among relievers.  On the bright side, I did correctly identify New York Yankees' relief pitcher, Dellin Betances as a pitcher that would go on to have a very good 2018 season.

The Shredder did not do a very good job either, but their list was slightly better than mine.  Like myself, they did not pick Vazequz, Doolittle, or David Robertson, but they also left off Betances and Osuna.  On the other hand, the Shredder did correctly identify Chad Green, Corey Knebel, and Brad Hand as relievers that would fare well in 2018.

The winner in accuracy in terms of the 2018 relief pitchers' forecast would be MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello.  He rated Felipe Vazquez the highest out of all of the analysts, and he he also picked Roberto Osuna and Chad Green to pitch well in 2018.  But mostly, he bet big in picking Felipe Vazquez to be a top 5 finisher among relief pitchers, and Vazquez ended up having the best season out of all of the relievers listed here.

Overall, I would give myself a D grade for my starting pitchers' forecast.  It was a big, glaring omission to leave off deGrom, Severino, and Hendricks, and that definitely hurt my score in terms of accuracy.  I did manage to rate Noah Syndergaard in the top 10, but overall, I feel that my list could've been much better than how it turned out.

Now....my ranking of relief pitchers might have been my worst forecast of the 2018 MLB season.

My 2018 relief pitchers' forecast was.....pretty bad.
(Picture courtesy of wesholing via Imgur.)

For relief pitchers, I'll give myself a D- grade for that forecast.  It's just short of flunking, but my relief pitchers list looked to be pretty.....pretty.....pretty bad.

Oh, boy.  Where do I start?

Like I said, I did not have Vazquez, Doolittle, Chad Green, or David Robertson on my top 10 relievers' list, which were big missteps on my part.  Then I also had Kenley Jansen and Andrew Miller in my top 3, as neither finished in the top 10 among relievers.

Probably the worst take, was predicting Houston Astros' reliever, Chris Devenski to finish in the top 5 among relievers.  Granted he was seen as a versatile reliever that could start or come out of the bullpen, but his stuff was not seen to be nearly as electric as the others, and while it seemed bold at the time, it looks really bad now in retrospect, as he ended up playing like a below replacement level player in the majors in 2018.

But, I did have Dellin Betances in my top 10, as I was the only one to have done so, so I will not flunk myself this time for relievers.  Overall, my pitchers' lists were not great overall, and I will grade my overall pitchers' forecast to be a D, which even then, may lean towards being generous.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Revisiting the 2018 First Basemen Rankings' Forecast

In 2018, the debate for who would be the best first baseman for that season was fierce.  In addition, analysts would debate on which first basemen would be regarded as the best in baseball that year, as each analyst sent in their top 10 list.  I had sent mine through Twitter on January 26^th, and this was definitively my best list in 2018.  Not only did it receive the most likes out of my lists that year, but I ended up having the most accurate list overall in that category.

Here, we will be analyzing my own list (Alan Lu), as well as the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Jim Thome, and the fans from social media.

Here is how we all fared in this category that year.

2018 First Basemen:

2018 1B	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Thome	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Freddie Freeman	4	2	7	3	4	3	2	6	4	5.3	1
Paul Goldschmidt	1	3	2	2	2	2	3	1	2	5.2	2
Matt Carpenter	6	9	15	15	15	8	9	15	15	5.0	3
Cody Bellinger	5	5	5	5	3	5	4	7	5	3.6	4
Joey Votto	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	3.5	5
Matt Olson	15	15	9	15	15	15	15	15	15	3.5	5
Anthony Rizzo	3	4	3	4	5	4	5	4	3	2.9	7
Joey Gallo	15	15	15	10	6	10	15	15	15	2.7	8
Brandon Belt	10	8	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	2.2	9
Carlos Santana	9	10	15	7	15	7	7	15	15	1.8	10
Justin Smoak	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	9	15	1.7	11
Ryan Zimmerman	15	15	15	15	7	15	15	15	15	1.3	12
Jose Abreu	8	6	6	8	9	6	6	3	9	1.2	13
Yuli Gurriel	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	1.1	14
Edwin Encarnacion	7	7	15	6	15	15	10	8	15	1.0	15
Josh Bell	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.9	16
Eric Thames	15	15	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	0.9	16
Miguel Cabrera	15	15	15	9	15	9	15	10	7	0.7	18
Greg Bird	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	8	0.1	19
Eric Hosmer	15	15	4	15	10	15	8	5	6	-0.1	20
Diff. Estimator	69	71	93	85	85	71	81	107	105
Yr Rank	1	2	7	5	5	2	4	9	8

...

This was by far, my best list of 2018.  I had the most accurate list here, and also had bet big on Matt Carpenter, which paid off as he went on to have a superb season that resulted him in finished 3rd in Fangraphs WAR among players ranked by analysts in this position.  No one voted for Freddie Freeman at the top, so me picking Paul Goldschmidt to be #1 was a solid choice, as he finished 2nd in Fangraphs WAR among first basemen out of players on this list.  In addition, I correctly identified Brandon Belt and Carlos Santana as players that would be top 10 finishers among first basemen listed here.

The Shredder also did a good job in forecasting 2018 first basemen.  Like myself, they had the good sense to pick Matt Carpenter as a top 10 first baseman for that season, and they also had Belt and Santana in their top 10 list.  While they missed by picking Abreu and Encarnacion, that did not hurt them that much here.

We still do remember Matt Carpenter's secret salsa, right?
 He had a tremendous second half in 2018 to cap off a terrific 2018 season.
(Picture courtesy of STL Sports Page via Rob Rains and Suzanne Corbett)

Overall, I would give myself an A for my 2018 first basemen forecast.  Though no one had Freeman at #1, I must pat myself on the back for picking Matt Carpenter the highest out of all of the other analysts, and he rewarded my faith by having a 5.0 Fangraphs WAR season.  He certainly was the Cardinals' MVP in the 2nd half of the season, and he was definitely one of the best players in baseball in 2018.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.