Since we'll be revisiting both the starting pitchers and relivers' top 10 rankings and predictions for the 2018 season, I have decided to combine those all into one post. We'll be looking at nine analysts each, with the constants being me (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, and the fans from social media (whom I'm counting as one entity for simplicity purposes). Then, the baseball expert for the starting pitchers was John Smoltz, and the baseball expert for relievers was Dan Plesac.
So how well did we all do that year in those categories? Here are some findings.
2018 Starting Pitchers:
...
I went into that year confident in my starting pitcher choices, but it did not turn out as well as hoped. I did not expect Jacob deGrom to thoroughly dominate the majors in 2018. While I had thought he would have a good year, I had left him off my list, so that hurts my list here. Also, I did not predict Luis Severino nor Kyle Hendricks to be one of the best pitchers, as both of them ended up in the top 10 among pitchers ranked by analysts here. On the other hand, I did rate Noah Syndergaard in my top 10 list, so there's that.
The Shredder did not do so well, either. Like myself, it did not have deGrom nor Severino in their top 10 list, which would be a negative mark on their forecasting accuracy of starting pitchers here in the 2018 season. They did have Kyle Hendricks in their top 10 list though, which was a positive, but they bet big on Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, and Madison Bumgarner, and all of them had relatively disappointing seasons.
MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello had the best list of forecasting 2018 starting pitchers. Though he didn't have deGrom on his list either, he correctly identified Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard as top 10 pitchers among players ranked on this list. While everybody swung and missed at the idea of Kershaw being one of the best pitchers for that year as he ended up being plagued with injuries, Petriello was within range on most starting pitchers than the other analysts.
So here is the relievers' list, who people picked, and how we all did.
2018 Relief Pitchers:
....
It seems that no one did especially well in ranking relievers, as a lot of different players were picked, and like the 2018 second basemen list, this list was also a crapshoot.
Some people had the good presence of mind in picking Pittsburgh Pirates' reliever Felipe (Rivero) Vazquez to be in their top 10 list, and he was the best reliever in Fangraphs WAR among all relievers ranked on this list. There were also some that had picked Roberto Osuna, who pitched fairly well, although he would be plagued with a domestic violence charge late in that season.
However, not many analysts picked Sean Doolittle, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, or Brad Hand to be in their top 10 list. Also, many people picked San Diego Padres' closer Kenley Jansen to be the best reliever in baseball, but he did not go on to pitch nearly as well as hoped that year. Andrew Miller would go on to have an injury-plagued year with the Cleveland Indians, and several other relievers were chosen for top 10 lists that in hindsight, probably shouldn't have been.
I was terrible at forecasting relievers in 2018, and judging from my 2019 list, my prediction is that my 2019 relievers' prediction would be terrible as well. I left off four of the top 6 relievers in Fangraphs WAR among those that were ranked on this list, and three of my top 5 relievers missed the top 10 bar among relievers. On the bright side, I did correctly identify New York Yankees' relief pitcher, Dellin Betances as a pitcher that would go on to have a very good 2018 season.
The Shredder did not do a very good job either, but their list was slightly better than mine. Like myself, they did not pick Vazequz, Doolittle, or David Robertson, but they also left off Betances and Osuna. On the other hand, the Shredder did correctly identify Chad Green, Corey Knebel, and Brad Hand as relievers that would fare well in 2018.
The winner in accuracy in terms of the 2018 relief pitchers' forecast would be MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello. He rated Felipe Vazquez the highest out of all of the analysts, and he he also picked Roberto Osuna and Chad Green to pitch well in 2018. But mostly, he bet big in picking Felipe Vazquez to be a top 5 finisher among relief pitchers, and Vazquez ended up having the best season out of all of the relievers listed here.
Overall, I would give myself a D grade for my starting pitchers' forecast. It was a big, glaring omission to leave off deGrom, Severino, and Hendricks, and that definitely hurt my score in terms of accuracy. I did manage to rate Noah Syndergaard in the top 10, but overall, I feel that my list could've been much better than how it turned out.
Now....my ranking of relief pitchers might have been my worst forecast of the 2018 MLB season.
For relief pitchers, I'll give myself a D- grade for that forecast. It's just short of flunking, but my relief pitchers list looked to be pretty.....pretty.....pretty bad.
Oh, boy. Where do I start?
Like I said, I did not have Vazquez, Doolittle, Chad Green, or David Robertson on my top 10 relievers' list, which were big missteps on my part. Then I also had Kenley Jansen and Andrew Miller in my top 3, as neither finished in the top 10 among relievers.
Probably the worst take, was predicting Houston Astros' reliever, Chris Devenski to finish in the top 5 among relievers. Granted he was seen as a versatile reliever that could start or come out of the bullpen, but his stuff was not seen to be nearly as electric as the others, and while it seemed bold at the time, it looks really bad now in retrospect, as he ended up playing like a below replacement level player in the majors in 2018.
But, I did have Dellin Betances in my top 10, as I was the only one to have done so, so I will not flunk myself this time for relievers. Overall, my pitchers' lists were not great overall, and I will grade my overall pitchers' forecast to be a D, which even then, may lean towards being generous.
So how well did we all do that year in those categories? Here are some findings.
2018 Starting Pitchers:
| 2018 SP | Alan Lu | Shredder | James | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Smoltz | Fans | fWAR | Rank |
| Jacob deGrom | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Max Scherzer | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Justin Verlander | 6 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6.6 | 3 |
| Chris Sale | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6.2 | 4 |
| Corey Kluber | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5.5 | 5 |
| Luis Severino | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 5.4 | 6 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 5.2 | 7 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 5 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 4.2 | 8 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 3.5 | 9 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3.3 | 10 |
| Zack Greinke | 7 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 2.8 | 11 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 2.4 | 12 |
| Carlos Martinez | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 2.1 | 13 |
| Jake Arrieta | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.9 | 14 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 10 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 1.4 | 15 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.0 | 16 |
| Diff. Estimator | 67 | 71 | 71 | 53 | 59 | 63 | 63 | 59 | 57 | ||
| Yr Rank | 7 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
I went into that year confident in my starting pitcher choices, but it did not turn out as well as hoped. I did not expect Jacob deGrom to thoroughly dominate the majors in 2018. While I had thought he would have a good year, I had left him off my list, so that hurts my list here. Also, I did not predict Luis Severino nor Kyle Hendricks to be one of the best pitchers, as both of them ended up in the top 10 among pitchers ranked by analysts here. On the other hand, I did rate Noah Syndergaard in my top 10 list, so there's that.
The Shredder did not do so well, either. Like myself, it did not have deGrom nor Severino in their top 10 list, which would be a negative mark on their forecasting accuracy of starting pitchers here in the 2018 season. They did have Kyle Hendricks in their top 10 list though, which was a positive, but they bet big on Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, and Madison Bumgarner, and all of them had relatively disappointing seasons.
MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello had the best list of forecasting 2018 starting pitchers. Though he didn't have deGrom on his list either, he correctly identified Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard as top 10 pitchers among players ranked on this list. While everybody swung and missed at the idea of Kershaw being one of the best pitchers for that year as he ended up being plagued with injuries, Petriello was within range on most starting pitchers than the other analysts.
So here is the relievers' list, who people picked, and how we all did.
2018 Relief Pitchers:
| 2018 RP | Alan Lu | Shredder | James | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Plesac | Fans | fWAR | Rank |
| Felipe Vazquez | 15 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Sean Doolittle | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 8 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1.8 | 3 |
| Dellin Betances | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.7 | 4 |
| Chad Green | 15 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 1.7 | 4 |
| David Robertson | 15 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 1.4 | 6 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 7 |
| Brad Hand | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 1.2 | 8 |
| Roberto Osuna | 5 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 1.1 | 9 |
| Corey Knebel | 15 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 1.0 | 10 |
| Alex Colome | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.9 | 11 |
| Wade Davis | 15 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0.8 | 12 |
| Ken Giles | 15 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.8 | 12 |
| Brandon Morrow | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.7 | 14 |
| Andrew Miller | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.4 | 15 |
| Archie Bradley | 7 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 0.4 | 15 |
| Kenley Jansen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | 17 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 9 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.3 | 17 |
| Pat Neshek | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 0.3 | 17 |
| Ryan Madson | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.2 | 20 |
| Zach Britton | 15 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 0.1 | 21 |
| Chris Devenski | 4 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.1 | 22 |
| Cody Allen | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.1 | 22 |
| Diff. Estimator | 163 | 159 | 159 | 137 | 161 | 151 | 147 | 155 | 137 | ||
| Yr Rank | 9 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
....
It seems that no one did especially well in ranking relievers, as a lot of different players were picked, and like the 2018 second basemen list, this list was also a crapshoot.
Some people had the good presence of mind in picking Pittsburgh Pirates' reliever Felipe (Rivero) Vazquez to be in their top 10 list, and he was the best reliever in Fangraphs WAR among all relievers ranked on this list. There were also some that had picked Roberto Osuna, who pitched fairly well, although he would be plagued with a domestic violence charge late in that season.
However, not many analysts picked Sean Doolittle, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, or Brad Hand to be in their top 10 list. Also, many people picked San Diego Padres' closer Kenley Jansen to be the best reliever in baseball, but he did not go on to pitch nearly as well as hoped that year. Andrew Miller would go on to have an injury-plagued year with the Cleveland Indians, and several other relievers were chosen for top 10 lists that in hindsight, probably shouldn't have been.
I was terrible at forecasting relievers in 2018, and judging from my 2019 list, my prediction is that my 2019 relievers' prediction would be terrible as well. I left off four of the top 6 relievers in Fangraphs WAR among those that were ranked on this list, and three of my top 5 relievers missed the top 10 bar among relievers. On the bright side, I did correctly identify New York Yankees' relief pitcher, Dellin Betances as a pitcher that would go on to have a very good 2018 season.
The Shredder did not do a very good job either, but their list was slightly better than mine. Like myself, they did not pick Vazequz, Doolittle, or David Robertson, but they also left off Betances and Osuna. On the other hand, the Shredder did correctly identify Chad Green, Corey Knebel, and Brad Hand as relievers that would fare well in 2018.
The winner in accuracy in terms of the 2018 relief pitchers' forecast would be MLB.com writer, Mike Petriello. He rated Felipe Vazquez the highest out of all of the analysts, and he he also picked Roberto Osuna and Chad Green to pitch well in 2018. But mostly, he bet big in picking Felipe Vazquez to be a top 5 finisher among relief pitchers, and Vazquez ended up having the best season out of all of the relievers listed here.
Overall, I would give myself a D grade for my starting pitchers' forecast. It was a big, glaring omission to leave off deGrom, Severino, and Hendricks, and that definitely hurt my score in terms of accuracy. I did manage to rate Noah Syndergaard in the top 10, but overall, I feel that my list could've been much better than how it turned out.
Now....my ranking of relief pitchers might have been my worst forecast of the 2018 MLB season.
 |
| My 2018 relief pitchers' forecast was.....pretty bad. (Picture courtesy of wesholing via Imgur.) |
Oh, boy. Where do I start?
Like I said, I did not have Vazquez, Doolittle, Chad Green, or David Robertson on my top 10 relievers' list, which were big missteps on my part. Then I also had Kenley Jansen and Andrew Miller in my top 3, as neither finished in the top 10 among relievers.
Probably the worst take, was predicting Houston Astros' reliever, Chris Devenski to finish in the top 5 among relievers. Granted he was seen as a versatile reliever that could start or come out of the bullpen, but his stuff was not seen to be nearly as electric as the others, and while it seemed bold at the time, it looks really bad now in retrospect, as he ended up playing like a below replacement level player in the majors in 2018.
But, I did have Dellin Betances in my top 10, as I was the only one to have done so, so I will not flunk myself this time for relievers. Overall, my pitchers' lists were not great overall, and I will grade my overall pitchers' forecast to be a D, which even then, may lean towards being generous.
Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts. (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
No comments:
Post a Comment
This is the comment form message. This is also a reminder to be courteous and respectful. Also, no spam.