Normally, I like to do things in chronological order in terms of the lists from shows that were rolled out on the MLB Network. The relief pitchers actually happened last in the 2019 chronology, as the starting pitchers, first basemen, and shortstops' list all came before it, but the results of the top 10 rankings of 2019 relievers was such a crapshoot that I decided that the relief pitchers' list did not merit having its own post. So I decided to lump the results of the pitchers' rankings in general, as you will be looking at how people's predictions of starting pitchers and relievers did this year.
In reviewing the results of the 2019 starting pitchers' forecast, we will use the Fangraphs' WAR to assess the results of picks made by analysts such as from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Ron Darling, and fans from social media (whom I am counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).
So without further ado, how did we all do?
2019 Starting Pitchers' Rankings:
....
The Findings:
Neither me nor the Shredder did especially that well here. I think I was about in the middle of the pack while the Shredder rated towards the bottom of the list in terms of accuracy here.
For me, several of the pitchers I had in my top 5 were well within range, but neither me nor the Shredder rated Houston Astros' Gerrit Cole high enough, and we also omitted Buehler, Corbin, and Syndergaard from our lists. The Shredder completely omitted Gerrit Cole, which was a bad look for them since Cole finished atop the Fangraphs' WAR among starters in 2019.
I did have Clayton Kershaw in about the right range, but they had Blake Snell a little too high on their list. Overall, I would give myself a C, and the Shredder will get a D+ for their efforts on starting pitchers here in 2019.
Interestingly enough, Vince Gennaro had the best list in making predictions of starting pitchers in 2019. He did a good job of rating Gerrit Cole high on his list, as he was the highest on Gerrit Cole, who rewarded him by having a fantastic season for the Astros this year. Gennaro also had the good sense to put both Patrick Corbin and Noah Syndergaard on his top 10 list, and Corbin was an integral pitcher on the eventual 2019 World Series champions, the Washington Nationals this season.
In analyzing two years worth of data, the go-to, pinpoint person for your 2020 starting pitchers' forecast should be Mike Petriello. A good number of picks regarding starting pitchers have been well within range, and he also will sometimes pick sleepers that will turn out to play far better than anyone else may have anticipated.
_____
So now, we will take a look at how various analysts did in terms of projecting 2019 relievers when making their top 10 lists. The analysts' lists we will be looking at will be of myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Dan Plesac, and fans from social media (whom I am counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).
As I have mentioned above, pretty much everyone had a terrible time predicting relief pitchers, because forecasting their eventual results may be the toughest thing to do in baseball. Case in point, Craig Kimbrel was the closer on the 2018 World Series champions' Boston Red Sox, and he had been a 7-time All-Star that had made the last three All-Star teams prior to the 2019 season. Kimbrel even earned a couple of first place votes in terms of who would be the best reliever for this season, unfortunately from both myself and the Shredder, and he was on every analyst's top 10 list (in this case, I'm counting fans as one vote for simplicity purposes).
But Kimbrel was unsigned to start the year as he signed midway with the Chicago Cubs after missing the first couple of months of the 2019 season, and Kimbrel went on to have a terrible season, as he finished with a horrendous 6.53 ERA that also helped lead manager Joe Maddon to getting fired at the end of the year. Kimbrel was unanimously had the worst season among relievers that was ranked by analysts on this list, but no one could have predicted just how terrible he would pitch, even despite the fact that he missed two months of the season due to greed, pure selfishness, and just him wanting too much money as his absence away from spring training and the early part of the regular season may have left him unprepared for the rigors of the 2019 Major League Baseball season. That and the fact that Kimbrel is in his early-30s, as the decline stage really hit him like a ton of bricks this year.
I really didn't want my last post on the 2019 top 10 lists to be on relief pitchers, and for good reason. No one was very accurate in their projections in this category, and what you will see below are a lot of relief pitchers who were not projected to be top 10 relievers of 2019 that went on to do so for that season.
2019 Relief Pitchers:
...
(Just for a reference and to clarify things, even though 23 different relief pitchers made the top 10 lists of eight analysts above here, the 15 number just indicates a player who was NOT on that analyst's top 10 list.)
The Findings:
The relievers' forecast did not end up well, as there ended up being a good number of relievers that were top 10 finishers on this list that were not projected to do so before the season started. Craig Kimbrel managed to be the LVP of this list, as he was on everybody's top 10 list, and even received a couple of first place votes, and everybody missed at least half of the relievers that made the top 10 list among those ranked by analysts at the end of the year.
I did not put out a great top 10 relievers' list for the MLB season, but neither did the Shredder. Only Vince Gennaro expected Kirby Yates to excel as one of the best relievers this season, and I missed out on too many relief pitchers. The Shredder also missed out on a handful as well, but so did the first place finisher of this list, Ben Lindbergh.
In analyzing two years worth of data, if there is anybody that you should go to as the go-to, point person for your 2020 relievers' forecast, it would be the Ringer's writer Ben Lindbergh, as his list has been more accurate than others using the Fangraphs' WAR method in the past two seasons.
On the bright side, I did rate Cleveland Indians' Brad Hand significantly higher than others, and he went on to have a pretty good season. But overall regarding the 2019 relievers' forecast, I did not do a great job here, so I'll give myself a D-, and the Shredder will get a C. They did finish in the upper half of this list, but no one was very accurate in general, and both myself and the Shredder would get docked considerably for missing out on Kirby Yates and for putting Kimbrel atop our lists. But the Shredder did rate Felipe Vazquez, Chad Green, and Jose Leclerc farely well, and those three all turned in pretty good seasons. As for me, I am choosing not to give myself a failing grade because I did manage to predict that Brad Hand would have a solid season when almost no one else did. But on the flip side, projecting how well relievers will do may actually be one of the toughest things to predict in baseball.
Also, on whether or not if you should care about who I rank in the top 10 amongst starting pitchers and relief pitchers for the 2020 season, I will say, no, you should not. I have not been very accurate in predicting starting pitchers so far, as there are always a few pitchers I miss out on at or near the top, and you definitely should not care about my list regarding 2020 relievers, as I have not at all found a way to accurate project relievers yet. I might keep trying, but unfortunately, I've placed at or near the bottom in predicting relievers each time for the past two seasons. Predicting outfielders and first basemen has been a strong suit of mine, but unfortunately, predicting pitchers has not been a strong suit for me yet.
Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts. (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
In reviewing the results of the 2019 starting pitchers' forecast, we will use the Fangraphs' WAR to assess the results of picks made by analysts such as from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Ron Darling, and fans from social media (whom I am counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).
So without further ado, how did we all do?
2019 Starting Pitchers' Rankings:
| 2019 Starters | Alan Lu | Shredder | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Darling | Fans | fWAR | Rank |
| Gerrit Cole | 9 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| Max Scherzer | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6.5 | 3 |
| Justin Verlander | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6.4 | 4 |
| Walker Buehler | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 5 |
| Patrick Corbin | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 4.8 | 6 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 4.4 | 7 |
| Chris Sale | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3.6 | 8 |
| Aaron Nola | 6 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 3.4 | 9 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 10 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 3.4 | 9 |
| Trevor Bauer | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 3.3 | 11 |
| Blake Snell | 15 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 2.7 | 12 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 8 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 1.0 | 13 |
| Corey Kluber | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 0.6 | 14 |
| Luis Severino | 7 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 0.5 | 15 |
| Diff. Estimator | 77 | 83 | 63 | 57 | 73 | 65 | 87 | 77 | ||
| 2019 Rank | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 5 |
....
The Findings:
Neither me nor the Shredder did especially that well here. I think I was about in the middle of the pack while the Shredder rated towards the bottom of the list in terms of accuracy here.
For me, several of the pitchers I had in my top 5 were well within range, but neither me nor the Shredder rated Houston Astros' Gerrit Cole high enough, and we also omitted Buehler, Corbin, and Syndergaard from our lists. The Shredder completely omitted Gerrit Cole, which was a bad look for them since Cole finished atop the Fangraphs' WAR among starters in 2019.
I did have Clayton Kershaw in about the right range, but they had Blake Snell a little too high on their list. Overall, I would give myself a C, and the Shredder will get a D+ for their efforts on starting pitchers here in 2019.
Interestingly enough, Vince Gennaro had the best list in making predictions of starting pitchers in 2019. He did a good job of rating Gerrit Cole high on his list, as he was the highest on Gerrit Cole, who rewarded him by having a fantastic season for the Astros this year. Gennaro also had the good sense to put both Patrick Corbin and Noah Syndergaard on his top 10 list, and Corbin was an integral pitcher on the eventual 2019 World Series champions, the Washington Nationals this season.
In analyzing two years worth of data, the go-to, pinpoint person for your 2020 starting pitchers' forecast should be Mike Petriello. A good number of picks regarding starting pitchers have been well within range, and he also will sometimes pick sleepers that will turn out to play far better than anyone else may have anticipated.
_____
So now, we will take a look at how various analysts did in terms of projecting 2019 relievers when making their top 10 lists. The analysts' lists we will be looking at will be of myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Dan Plesac, and fans from social media (whom I am counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).
As I have mentioned above, pretty much everyone had a terrible time predicting relief pitchers, because forecasting their eventual results may be the toughest thing to do in baseball. Case in point, Craig Kimbrel was the closer on the 2018 World Series champions' Boston Red Sox, and he had been a 7-time All-Star that had made the last three All-Star teams prior to the 2019 season. Kimbrel even earned a couple of first place votes in terms of who would be the best reliever for this season, unfortunately from both myself and the Shredder, and he was on every analyst's top 10 list (in this case, I'm counting fans as one vote for simplicity purposes).
But Kimbrel was unsigned to start the year as he signed midway with the Chicago Cubs after missing the first couple of months of the 2019 season, and Kimbrel went on to have a terrible season, as he finished with a horrendous 6.53 ERA that also helped lead manager Joe Maddon to getting fired at the end of the year. Kimbrel was unanimously had the worst season among relievers that was ranked by analysts on this list, but no one could have predicted just how terrible he would pitch, even despite the fact that he missed two months of the season due to greed, pure selfishness, and just him wanting too much money as his absence away from spring training and the early part of the regular season may have left him unprepared for the rigors of the 2019 Major League Baseball season. That and the fact that Kimbrel is in his early-30s, as the decline stage really hit him like a ton of bricks this year.
I really didn't want my last post on the 2019 top 10 lists to be on relief pitchers, and for good reason. No one was very accurate in their projections in this category, and what you will see below are a lot of relief pitchers who were not projected to be top 10 relievers of 2019 that went on to do so for that season.
2019 Relief Pitchers:
| 2019 Relievers | Alan Lu | Shredder | Petriello | Gennaro | Lindbergh | Kenny | Plesac | Fans | fWAR | Rank |
| Kirby Yates | 15 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Josh Hader | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Felipe Vazquez | 15 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 15 | 2.1 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 15 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Brad Hand | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 1.5 | 5 |
| Ryan Pressly | 15 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.5 | 5 |
| Adam Ottavino | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 1.3 | 7 |
| Chad Green | 4 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.2 | 8 |
| Kenley Jansen | 8 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 1.2 | 8 |
| Jose Leclerc | 15 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 1.2 | 8 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 1.1 | 11 |
| Sean Doolittle | 15 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 0.7 | 12 |
| Jordan Hicks | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 0.5 | 13 |
| Jeremy Jeffress | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0.3 | 14 |
| Dellin Betances | 6 | 15 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 0.1 | 15 |
| Edwin Diaz | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| Corey Knebel | 5 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
| Brandon Morrow | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
| David Robertson | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | -0.1 | 19 |
| Jeurys Familia | 15 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | -0.2 | 20 |
| Blake Treinen | 15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -0.3 | 21 |
| Andrew Miller | 10 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 8 | -0.4 | 22 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 4 | -1.0 | 23 |
| Difference Estimator | 159 | 149 | 153 | 151 | 137 | 175 | 147 | 165 | ||
| 2019 Rank | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
...
(Just for a reference and to clarify things, even though 23 different relief pitchers made the top 10 lists of eight analysts above here, the 15 number just indicates a player who was NOT on that analyst's top 10 list.)
The Findings:
The relievers' forecast did not end up well, as there ended up being a good number of relievers that were top 10 finishers on this list that were not projected to do so before the season started. Craig Kimbrel managed to be the LVP of this list, as he was on everybody's top 10 list, and even received a couple of first place votes, and everybody missed at least half of the relievers that made the top 10 list among those ranked by analysts at the end of the year.
 |
| It's not easy predicting how well relief pitchers would fare in any given season, and this season was no different. The relievers' category was the last accurate list made by analysts in 2019. (Photo courtesy of Don and Y.F. via Know Your Meme) |
I did not put out a great top 10 relievers' list for the MLB season, but neither did the Shredder. Only Vince Gennaro expected Kirby Yates to excel as one of the best relievers this season, and I missed out on too many relief pitchers. The Shredder also missed out on a handful as well, but so did the first place finisher of this list, Ben Lindbergh.
In analyzing two years worth of data, if there is anybody that you should go to as the go-to, point person for your 2020 relievers' forecast, it would be the Ringer's writer Ben Lindbergh, as his list has been more accurate than others using the Fangraphs' WAR method in the past two seasons.
On the bright side, I did rate Cleveland Indians' Brad Hand significantly higher than others, and he went on to have a pretty good season. But overall regarding the 2019 relievers' forecast, I did not do a great job here, so I'll give myself a D-, and the Shredder will get a C. They did finish in the upper half of this list, but no one was very accurate in general, and both myself and the Shredder would get docked considerably for missing out on Kirby Yates and for putting Kimbrel atop our lists. But the Shredder did rate Felipe Vazquez, Chad Green, and Jose Leclerc farely well, and those three all turned in pretty good seasons. As for me, I am choosing not to give myself a failing grade because I did manage to predict that Brad Hand would have a solid season when almost no one else did. But on the flip side, projecting how well relievers will do may actually be one of the toughest things to predict in baseball.
Also, on whether or not if you should care about who I rank in the top 10 amongst starting pitchers and relief pitchers for the 2020 season, I will say, no, you should not. I have not been very accurate in predicting starting pitchers so far, as there are always a few pitchers I miss out on at or near the top, and you definitely should not care about my list regarding 2020 relievers, as I have not at all found a way to accurate project relievers yet. I might keep trying, but unfortunately, I've placed at or near the bottom in predicting relievers each time for the past two seasons. Predicting outfielders and first basemen has been a strong suit of mine, but unfortunately, predicting pitchers has not been a strong suit for me yet.
Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts. (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)
Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.
