Analyzing the 2019 Shortstops Rankings' Forecast

There’s enough time to go through one more list.  Right after the MLB Network put out their list of top 10 first basemen for the 2019 season, they put out their list for the top 10 shortstops for that season.  Cleveland Indians’ shortstop, Francisco Lindor was the near-unanimous choice for the top spot for that year, while San Diego Padres’ shortstop Manny Machado received Vince Gennaro’s vote.

Here, we will look at lists of eight different analysts; from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Harold Reynolds, and fans from social media (whom I’m counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).

So listed below is the shortstop rankings of the 2019 MLB season using the Fangraphs’ WAR method (the Baseball-Reference WAR method is actually different, and is closer to the one the MLB Network uses, but the Fangraphs WAR method is used here because I feel that it is more accurate in generally evaluating pitching and defense).   Then, I will provide you with an overview with how I did over for the 2019 MLB season, compared to the Shredder.

 2019 Shortstop Rankings:

2019 SS	Alan Lu	Shredder	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Reynolds	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Xander Bogaerts	7	15	7	5	6	3	5	9	6.8	1
Trevor Story	9	3	3	8	8	4	8	7	5.8	2
Francisco Lindor	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	4.4	3
Javier Baez	8	2	5	4	7	7	4	2	4.4	3
Paul DeJong	10	8	15	15	15	10	10	15	4.1	5
Trea Turner	4	15	9	6	9	9	6	15	3.5	6
Corey Seager	2	7	6	7	4	8	7	8	3.3	7
Carlos Correa	5	6	8	3	3	2	3	5	3.2	8
Manny Machado	3	4	2	2	1	5	2	4	3.1	9
Jean Segura	15	9	10	9	10	15	9	15	2.3	10
Andrelton Simmons	6	5	4	10	5	6	15	6	1.7	11
Didi Gregorious	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	3	0.9	12
Brandon Crawford	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	0.4	13
Diff. Estimator	56	48	44	42	56	44	40	66
2019 Rank	6	5	3	2	6	3	1	8

....

The Findings:

In using the Fangraphs' WAR method, Harold Reynolds ended up being the most accurate analyst in projecting shortstops for the 2019 season.  He had the most players ranked as a top 10 finisher on this list among those that were ranked by analysts, and he was right on the mark in his Trea Turner and Corey Seager predictions while also having done a good job of picking Jean Segura to finish in the back half of the top 10 list.

For me, I think I did okay in general, but so did everyone else, so my list gets knocked down as a result.  This time around, I didn't rate Xander Bogaerts or Trevor Story high enough, and I actually had Javier Baez too low in my top 10 list.  I did a good job of rating Trea Turner in the right range while also having put Paul DeJong in my top 10 list, but I ended up over-rating Andrelton Simmons here, while having placed a bit too much faith in Corey Seager to finish near the top of the list, as Seager ended up having a good, but not great 2019 season.

The Shredder also did okay, but they finished in the middle of the pack in terms of accuracy, so they will get knocked down a bit as well.  On the plus side, they did a good job of rating Trevor Story high, and they also had Jean Segura in the appropriate range.  However, the Shredder missed the mark by not having rated Xander Bogaerts or Trea Turner for the second year in a row, and they rated Simmons and Didi Gregorious too high.  Gregorious started the year on the injured list and came back, but he did not end up playing as well as people thought he would, which hurt the Shredder and fans' ranking here.  Therefore, I will give myself a C, and the Shredder a C+ for our efforts in making these predictions of shortstops this past year.

In analyzing two years worth of data in who you should follow for your 2020 shortstops' forecast, it appears to be a three-way tie between Mike Petriello, Brian Kenny, and Harold Reynolds.  In general, people have tended to be quite accurate in making shortstop predictions, and sometimes analysts may have sleeper picks that end up doing far better than anyone else may anticipate.

As for whether or not if you should care about my shortstop predictions for the 2020 season, yes, you should.  Though I placed in 6th place this year in shortstop projections, I finished first in projecting 2018 shortstops in the sample that we looked at a while back, as my tendency to project sleepers generally have boded well for me in this category.

So to wrap it up, here we go....

Here's my 2018 Report Card on my 2019 positions' forecast on baseball players: 

2019 Catchers: D
2019 First Basemen: B-
2019 Second Basemen: C-
2019 Shortstops: C
2019 Third Basemen: B+
2019 Left Fielders: A-
2019 Center Fielders: A-
2019 Right Fielders: A-
2019 Starting Pitchers: C
2019 Relief Pitchers: D-

Alan Lu's 2019 Baseball Forecast Grade: C+

Meanwhile, here's the Shredder's 2018 Report Card on how they rated players via their top 10 lists:

2019 Catchers: C+
2019 First Basemen: B
2019 Second Basemen: D
2019 Shortstops: C+
2019 Third Basemen: C
2019 Left Fielders: C
2019 Center Fielders: A-
2019 Right Fielders: B
2019 Starting Pitchers: D+
2019 Relief Pitchers: C

The Shredder's 2019 Baseball Forecast Grade: C+

(assessment from myself, Alan Lu)

_____

When tallying up all the grades individually, I came out barely ahead.  So therefore I will say, that my 2019 projections this year overall were slightly better than the Shredder, as the grade averages come out to 78.9 to 77.5.

Overall, both me and the Shredder had a better season this year than in 2018, though we both had our fair share of misses.  My outfielder picks were great this year, but I need to get better at projecting catchers and pitchers.  For the Shredder, they did a good job of picking first basemen, center fielders, and right fielders, though they also were inaccurate in making projections in the other categories.

Making projections is not an easy business,
but if you come out ahead, that's a good thing.
(Picture courtesy of GIPHY and C2TCH's tumblr page via the movie Friday)

To sum it up, you win some, and you lose some.  Well, hope you enjoyed this, and thank you for reading.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Goodbye top 10 baseball lists....until next time.
(In this clip, Jon Stewart and John Oliver were dancing to Mystikal's song, Danger!)
(Photo courtesy of GIPHY, and the Daily Show.)

Thank you baseball, this was a good season, I enjoyed watching the St. Louis Cardinals get into the playoffs, and they had a magnificent 13-run game in the pivotal 5th game of the NLDS to get into the NLCS, and congratulations to the Washington Nationals for winning the title.  In the meantime, I'll try my best to get out those pesky top 10 baseball lists in January or February for the 2020 MLB season.

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.