Revisiting the 2019 First Basemen Rankings' Forecast

On January 27^th,  the MLB Network asked people on Twitter to vote for the top first basemen for the 2019 baseball season.  This year, the Shredder voted St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to be atop their list for the 2019 season, and plenty of the analysts agreed.  On the other hand, there were plenty of other analysts that felt that Atlanta Braves’ first baseman Freddie Freeman would be the best among players that play that position for the upcoming year.  When it was all said and done, there was another player that ended up leading first basemen in Fangraphs WAR this year.

Here, we will look at and assess the projections of eight analysts, from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Jim Thome, and fans from social media (whom for simplicity purposes, will count as one singular vote).  So, how did we all do?  Let’s find out for ourselves, using the Fangraphs’ WAR method.

2019 First Basemen Rankings:

2019 1B	Alan Lu	Shredder	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Thome	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Max Muncy	7	4	7	2	7	8	6	7	4.8	1
Carlos Santana	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	4.4	2
Freddie Freeman	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	4	3
Anthony Rizzo	5	5	3	5	4	4	3	4	4	3
Matt Olson	6	6	5	8	5	7	9	6	3.9	5
Paul Goldschmidt	2	1	1	3	2	1	1	2	2.9	6
Edwin Encarnacion	15	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	2.5	7
Rhys Hoskins	4	9	6	6	6	6	8	5	2.2	8
Jose Abreu	15	10	15	15	10	10	7	10	1.9	9
Joey Votto	3	3	4	4	3	3	5	3	0.7	10
Brandon Belt	9	15	15	15	8	15	15	15	0.5	11
Justin Smoak	15	7	15	10	15	15	15	15	0.2	12
Jesus Aguilar	8	8	8	7	9	5	4	15	-0.1	13
Daniel Murphy	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	-0.2	14
Miguel Cabrera	15	15	9	9	15	15	10	9	-0.3	15
Eric Hosmer	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	8	-0.4	16
Diff. Estimator	60	58	70	66	56	58	66	70
2019 Rank	4	2	7	5	1	2	5	7

......

The Findings:

The Ringer's writer, Ben Lindbergh was found to have the most accurate list in projecting top 10 first basemen for the 2019 season.  Most of his picks were within range, though he did miss out picking Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion.

I think I did alright here.  Like Lindbergh, most of my picks were also within range, but I did a good job of picking Carlos Santana to be in my top 10 when no one else did, and Santana went on to have a great year.  However, Cincinnati Reds' first basemen, Joey Votto underperformed, as did Milwaukee Brewers' first baseman, Jesus Aguilar.

The Shredder also did a good job of making their picks, as their picks also tended to be within range, and they did a good job of rating Max Muncy high, while they rated Rhys Hoskins and Jose Abreu in the appropriate range, but they also missed on several picks such as Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion, while over-reaching on Justin Smoak and Jesus Aguilar.  So overall, I will give myself a B- and the Shredder a B, as I think we both did a pretty good job, though we didn't really uncover any big sleepers for the 2019 season.

The most interesting thing was that Los Angeles Dodgers' first baseman, Max Muncy led all first basemen in Fangraphs WAR (4.8) in 2019, as he had a very good season this year.  On the flip side, others such as Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt did not fare nearly as well as they failed to meet some rather lofty expectations, as both of them finished in the middle of the pack this season.

In analyzing two years worth of data in evaluating first basemen via the Fangraphs' WAR method, your go-to, point person for the 2020 First Basemen forecast should be Ringer's writer, Ben Lindbergh.  Most of his picks tend to be within range, and sometimes he will make sleeper picks that will do better than others may anticipate.

As for whether or not if you should care about my 2020 first basemen rankings' projections, yes, you definitely should.  I was the most accurate analyst in the sample we looked at in forecasting 2018 first basemen, and my 2019 list regarding this category was not too shabby in itself.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.