Evaluating the St. Louis Cardinals' 1st Round Picks of This Decade: The 2010s

I was reading MLB Pipeline's Prospect Disappointments of this past decade from each team, and while there were some disagreements from me, that article inspired me to take a look at how the Cardinals drafted in the 2010s.  In the short term, for now I'll evaluate just first round picks, as evaluating entire drafts of the Cards from 2010-19 may potentially take too long.  So here's a rundown on who they picked in the first round in the 2010s, and my thoughts on how they fared.

While the draft may be an inexact science, I'll still attempt to evaluate these picks to see how well the Cards drafted in the 1st round with the picks they were given.  Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference, with the WAR metric used from Fangraphs.*  (*Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs uses two different ways to measure WAR, so their results differ from each other.  Also, I decided not to include any MLB drafts prior to 2010.)

1st Rounders Drafted in 2010:

25th overall pick, 3B Zack Cox

He never reached the majors, but he was traded to the Miami Marlins for reliever, Edward Mujica in 2012.  While Cox never ended up making the big leagues, the Cards scored a big win in by acquiring Mujica to bolster their bullpen.

46th overall pick, P Seth Blair

So far, Blair has never reached the majors.  He never really found his footing as a pitcher in the St. Louis Cardinals' organization, but he did flash some big league potential with his performances in the Arizona Fall League in 2012, as well as in AA in 2013, as he's shown that he can strike hitters out.  Blair did reach AAA in 2014, but he's struggled with control and command issues, and he did not pitch well at all at that level.  He has last pitched in A+ ball for the San Diego Padres' organization in 2019, but it's looking unlikely, but not improbable that he'll ever make his way to the big leagues.

Tyrell Jenkins reached the majors with the Atlanta Braves, and he was a key piece to a trade
that netted the Cardinals Jason Heyward. (Photo: MLB.com.)

50th overall pick, P Tyrell Jenkins

MLB Career: 2-4, 5.88 ERA, 52 IP, 9.5 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.7 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 6.86 FIP, -0.9 WAR

The Cardinals didn't exactly make great picks in the first round of the 2010 draft, as only Tyrell Jenkins reached the majors out of the trio of players they had drafted there.  Third baseman Zack Cox did net the Cards a solid veteran pitcher in acquiring Edward Mujica via trade, who was able to make one All-Star team as a closer before fizzling out as a journeyman reliever later in his major league career.

Out of the three 2010 first round picks that the Cards drafted, Jenkins had the most promising career, as he reached the majors briefly with the Atlanta Braves after having been packaged with Shelby Miller in a trade to acquire Jason Heyward, but though Zack Cox was a highly touted hitter drafted out of college, he never reached the majors despite having reached AAA and had had several solid seasons at that level.  But a year after Jenkins made his way to the majors, he had a disastrous AAA season in 2017 for El Paso in the San Diego Padres' organization.  Midway through that year, Jenkins was given his outright release, and he is currently out of baseball.

Among the first rounders drafted in 2010, none of the Cardinals' picks panned out in the majors, but their trades respectively helped get them solid veteran players in reliever Edward Mujica, and outfielder Jason Heyward, as this made the 2010 draft salvageable, even if they only had Heyward for a year.

Cards' 2010 First Round Grade, Evaluating Players Only: D+
Trade Grade in Dealing Cox for Mujica: A+
Trade Grade in Dealing Jenkins (and Shelby Miller) for Heyward: B
Overall 2010 1st Round Grade: C+

1st Rounders Drafted in 2011:

Kolten Wong has been a solid second baseman in the majors for the Cardinals,
and he won his first Gold Glove this past season in 2019. (Photo: Justin Berl/Getty Images.)

22nd overall: 2B Kolten Wong

2019 (MLB - STL): .285 AVG, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 24 SB, .361 OBP, .423 SLG, .784 OPS, Gold Glove, 3.7 WAR
MLB Career (still active): .260 AVG, 52 HR, 265 RBI, 83 SB, .332 OBP, .388 SLG, .720 OPS, 1 Gold Glove, 14.0 WAR
MLB Postseason career: .250 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 4 SB, .250 OBP, .458 SLG, .708 OPS

Kolten Wong has been one of the best picks that the Cardinals made in the first round in this decade.  While he's been inconsistent as a hitter, he's shown some solid pop, hit well last year, and he is a tremendous, rangy fielder who managed to win a Gold Glove in 2019.  He has struggled to field as well in the postseason, but Wong is a talented second baseman that has been a solid starter for the Cards, and he has the potential to make the All-Star team in the National League.

Overall 2011 1st Round Grade: A-

1st Rounders Drafted in 2012:

Michael Wacha has been a solid starter for the Cardinals,
and he recently signed on to pitch for the New York Mets for the 2020 season. 
(Photo: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

19th overall: P Michael Wacha

2019 (MLB w/STL): 6-7, 4.76 ERA, 126.2 IP, 10.2 H9, 1.8 HR9, 3.9 BB9, 7.4 K9, 5.61 FIP, 104 K, -0.2 WAR
MLB Career (still active): 59-39, 3.91 ERA, 867.2 IP, 8.8 H9, 1.0 HR9, 3.1 BB9, 7.9 K9, 3.96 FIP, 1 All-Star Team, 10.8 WAR
MLB Postseason Career: 4-3, 4.08 ERA, 35.1 IP, 6.1 IP, 1.8 HR9, 4.1 BB9, 9.7 K9

This was probably the Cards' best selection in this draft, though Piscotty would be a close second.  Wacha-mania was born his rookie year in 2013, and he had a tremendous rookie and postseason that year, as he helped lead his team to the World Series.  He also made the All-Star team in 2015, but has been injury plagued ever since, which has limited his effectiveness as a starter recently.  Wacha recently signed to join the New York Mets, and his new team will be hoping that a change of scenery can help him become rejuvenated.

23rd overall: OF James Ramsey

A productive college outfielder that had a patient hitting approach, Ramsey unfortunately never reached the majors. He came close, as he reached AAA and had some fairly solid seasons at the level, but he could never contribute enough to get the call to the big leagues.

Stephen Piscotty was a solid draft choice by the St. Louis Cardinals,
and he is currently a starter on the Oakland A's.
(Photo: Orlando Ramirez/The Associated Press.)

36th overall: OF Stephen Piscotty

2019 (MLB w/OAK): .249 AVG, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 2 SB, .309 OBP, .412 SLG, .720 OPS, 0.6 WAR
MLB Career (still active): .265 AVG, 78 HR, 295 RBI, 16 SB, .336 OBP, .447 SLG, .783 OPS, 7.3 WAR
MLB Postseason Career: .316 AVG, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, .409 OBP, .842 SLG, 1.251 OPS

Stephen Piscotty has had his ups and downs as a major-league starter over the years, as he's shown flashes of All-Star potential, and then follows up a solid season by regressing in the next one.  When he's playing well, he's a solid hitter that has good power and above-average fielding potential, but he is also prone to prolonged slumps as a hitter.  He was traded to Oakland to be with his ailing mother, who he was able to spend time with shortly before she passed away.  Piscotty is a talented, but inconsistent hitter, but he is a good player that could end up having a long career in the majors.

52nd overall: 3B Patrick Wisdom

2019 (MLB w/TEX): .154 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB, .185 OBP, .192 SLG, .377 OPS, -0.3 WAR
MLB Career (still active): .224 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, .306 OBP, .408 SLG, .714 OPS, 0.1 WAR

Patrick Wisdom is a power hitting third basemen that was called up to the majors in 2018 by the St. Louis Cardinals, and he has also hit 31 homers in AAA in 2017.  Wisdom showed flashes of being able to be an everyday player in the big leagues by playing well as a September call-up for the Cards, but he has never really been able to stay in the majors for very long.  The Cards let him walk in free agency to the Texas Rangers, where he briefly was in the majors before being sent back down to AAA.  This year, Wisdom will be trying out for the Seattle Mariners, but it seems that his likely career path will be one where he will vascillate back forth from AAA to the majors and back, before ending up as a AAA mainstay, unless if he can replicate his 2018 success that he had with the Cardinals.

59th overall: C Steve Bean

A surprise selection at the time, Bean has since never reached the majors.  Perhaps drafted because of his defense, Bean has shown an adequate ability to throw runners out, and he thrown out 32% of the baserunners throughout his minor league career.  He didn't hit very well in the minors, but the highest level he has reached was A+ ball in 2016.  He is currently out of baseball.

Overall 2012 1st Round Grade, Evaluating Players Only: B+
Trade Grade in Dealing Piscotty for Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock: C
Overall 2012 1st Round Grade: B

1st Rounders Drafted in 2013:

Marco Gonzales is currently coming off a 16-win season with the Seattle Mariners.
(Photo: Bill Greenblatt/UPI.)

19th overall: P Marco Gonzales

2019 (MLB w/SEA): 16-13, 3.99 ERA, 203 IP, 9.3 H9, 1.0 HR9, 2.5 BB9, 6.5 K9, 4.15 FIP, 3.7 WAR
MLB Career (still active): 34-25, 4.25 ERA, 447 IP, 9.7 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.4 BB9, 7.2 K9, 4.04 FIP, 7.0 WAR
MLB Postseason Career: 2-1, 4.50 ERA, 6 IP, 6 H9, 0 HR9, 3 BB9, 6 K9

This is one player that seemed to have gotten away from St. Louis, as he has thrived in Seattle in the majors.  Gonzales initially stormed through the minors to get to the big leagues in 2014, and he showed promise as a left-handed pitcher that can start and come out of the bullpen.  He boasted having a terrific changeup to go along with his fastball, but injuries plagued him in the years following the first time he was called up by the Cards.  That, along with the Cardinals having him rushed him back in the following years, including a baffling 2015 season in which Gonzales struggled mightily in AAA, only to be called up to start against the Nationals in which he got creamed, and then was sent down again.  It wasn't until the trade was made with Seattle for Tyler O'Neill that Gonzales really was able to thrive in the majors once again.  The Mariners helped him establish his curveball to make his pitching repertoire more dynamic, and to make him less predictable and harder to hit.  Gonzales had a solid 2019 season, and he could potentially vie for an All-Star bid in 2020.

28th overall: P Rob Kaminsky

A talented, high-school left-handed pitcher that was thought to be middle of the rotation material, Kaminsky was an up and coming pitching prospect that was dealt to the Cleveland Indians to acquire Brandon Moss.  At the time, it seemed to be a steep price to acquire a one-time All-Star that can mash, but had little plate discipline, and Kaminsky was once thought to be an upper-tier organizational prospect, but he has since stalled at the higher levels of the minors, as he's struggled with his control, and has since moved to the bullpen.  So far, he has not reached the majors.  If anything, the Cardinals re-acquired Kaminsky this year, as they may give him a shot to make their team as a reliever in 2020.

Overall 2013 1st Round Grade, Evaluating Players Only: B-
Trade Grade in Dealing Gonzales for Tyler O'Neill: C
Overall 2013 1st Round Grade: C+

1st Rounders Drafted in 2014:

Luke Weaver is a starting pitcher that was included in the trade that netted the Cardinals Paul Goldschmidt.
(Photo: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

27th overall: P Luke Weaver

2019 (MLB w/ARI): 4-3, 2.94 ERA, 64.1 IP, 7.7 H9, 0.8 HR9, 2.0 BB9, 9.7 K9, 3.07 FIP, 1.8 WAR
MLB Career (still active): 19-20, 4.39 ERA, 297.1 IP, 9.4 H9, 1.2 HR9, 2.9 BB9, 9.3 K9, 3.88 FIP, 4.9 WAR

Luke Weaver was fast-tracked early to the majors, but he's had his ups and downs before being dealt along with catcher Carson Kelly to the Arizona Diamondbacks for 6-time All-Star first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt.  Weaver ended up getting hurt midway through last season, and was out for the year, but he is a talented starter that has the stuff to be a middle of the rotation pitcher for his new team.

Jack Flaherty is currently one of the best pitchers in baseball.  (Photo: Kelley L. Cox/USA Today Sports.)

34th overall: P Jack Flaherty

2019 (MLB w/STL): 11-8, 2.75 ERA, 196.1 IP, 6.2 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.5 BB9, 10.6 K9, 231 K, 3.46 FIP, 4.7 WAR
MLB Career (still active): 19-19, 3.20 ERA, 368.2 IP, 6.5 H9, 1.2 HR9, 3.0 BB9, 10.6 K9, 433 K, 3.73 FIP, 7.0 WAR
MLB Postseason Career: 1-2, 4.24 ERA, 17 IP, 9.0 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.1 BB9, 11.6 K9

Jack Flaherty had a tremendous second half of the 2019 season, as he's blossomed into being one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball.  As he is just 24 years old, he has a very bright future ahead of him, and the Cardinals see him as a pitcher who could be the ace of the staff for many years to come.

Overall 2014 1st Round Grade, Evaluating Players Only: A
Trade Grade in Dealing Weaver and Kelly for Goldschmidt: B
Overall 2014 1st Round Grade: A

1st Rounders Drafted in 2015:

23rd overall: OF Nick Plummer

The Cardinals were thought to go with a college player with their first round pick, but then scouting director, Chris Correa decided to have the Cards take a talented, but unpolished outfielder in Nick Plummer.  Unfortunately, his high school success in Michigan has not at all translated to the success in the minors.

Though Plummer draws a lot of walks, he has never hit for a .230 batting average or higher at any minor league level, and he has been a whiff machine due to his extremely high strikeout totals.  Plummer also has not shown as much pop in his bat that he was touted to have, and his trajectory unfortunately seems to indicate that he could be one of the bigger busts in Cardinals' draft history.

39th overall: P Jake Woodford

Jake Woodford has not reached the majors yet, but he may be on his way to doing so.  He recently reached AAA in 2019, and he produced mixed results as a starter at this past season.  His numbers haven't been overwhelming, but he produced his highest strikeout total as of yet.  The big keys for him will be control and command, as he's struggled with that more at the higher levels.  Whether if he can crack the Cardinals' roster remains to be seen, if so, he may have a shot to end up in the bullpen as a September call-up in 2020.

Overall 2015 1st Round Grade: C-

1st Rounders Drafted in 2016:

23rd overall: SS Delvin Perez

Perez was considered to be a potential top 5 pick before slipping in the draft due to testing positive for PEDs, and so the Cards swooped in and took him.  Unfortunately, he's had a rocky road in the minors, but he had a decent season in A ball, as Perez hit for a .269 average and stole 22 bases.  As he just turned 22 in late November, time is ticking as it's uncertain if he'll be able to fare as well at the higher levels.  He's also never hit more than one home run in any minor league season.  But there's still hope that he could make it to the big leagues one day, and there's a saying, and that is, better late than never.

Dylan Carlson looks to be the Cardinals' top prospect for the 2020 season.
(Photo: Tony Dejak/The Associated Press.)

33rd overall: OF Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson had a tremendous 2019 season in the minors, as he played very well in AA and AAA, and now looks to be the best prospect in the Cardinals' entire organization.  He hit .281 with 21 homers and stole 18 bases in AA, and he hit .361 while smashing 5 homers in 72 AAA at-bats.  The majors for him is likely just around the corner, and he could be a sleeper Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League for the 2020 season.

Dakota Hudson had a solid rookie season, as he won 16 games for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2019.
(Photo: Harry How/Getty Images.)

34th overall: P Dakota Hudson

2019 (MLB w/STL): 16-7, 3.35 ERA, 174.2 IP, 8.2 H9, 1.1 HR9, 4.4 BB9, 7.0 K9, 4.93 FIP, 1.0 WAR
MLB Career (still active): 20-8, 3.25 ERA, 202 IP, 8.0 H9, 1.0 HR9, 4.6 BB9, 6.9 K9, 4.78 FIP, 1.1 WAR
Postseason Career: 0-1, 9.00 ERA, 5 IP, 18.0 H9, 1.8 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 3.6 K9

Hudson had a very good rookie season in the majors in 2019, as he won 16 games, and sported a 3.35 ERA, as he showed good command throughout the regular season.  His postseason start against the Washington Nationals was a disaster, but Hudson otherwise played quite well last year.  He will need to keep working to improve his control, but he is a talented pitcher that could end up being a middle of the rotation starter in the big leagues.

Overall 2016 1st Round Grade: A-

1st Rounders Drafted in 2017:

None

The Cardinals did not have a first round pick in 2017, so they will not get a grade for that season.

Overall 2017 1st Round Grade: I  (I for incomplete)


1st Rounders Drafted in 2018:

Nolan Gorman has a bright future ahead of him, as he projects to be an everyday starter at 3B in the future.
(Photo: Paul R. Gierhart/MiLB.com)

19th overall: 3B Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman is a power hitting, third baseman that is one of the best prospects in the Cardinals' organization.  After having a stellar 2018 season, he's regressed a bit this past year, as he hit just a .248 batting average in A and A+ ball combined, but he still managed to hit 15 home runs.  Gorman does have some areas of concern.  His ability to make contact has been dropping off as his strikeout rates have climbed way up, and he struck out 152 times in 512 plate appearances at both levels in 2019.  Gorman does boast having All-Star potential, and the Cards consider him to be the third baseman of the future.

43rd overall: P Griffin Roberts

Roberts had a solid collegiate career with Wake Forest, as well as a very good start to his minor league career, but his development path got derailed with a 50-game suspension for violating the MLB's drug policy.  He did not pitch well in A+ ball in 2019, as he went 1-7 with a 6.44 ERA, as he struggled with his command, and did not strike nearly as many hitters out as he did in previous seasons.  Roberts did bounce back to have a solid Arizona Fall League this year, so there's hope that he can pitch significantly better, to the point that it's still possible that he can make the majors one day.

Overall 2018 1st Round Grade: B

1st Rounders Drafted in 2019:

19th overall: P Zack Thompson

The hard throwing lefty had a solid collegiate career with Kentucky, and he has pitched well early in his minor league career.  He had a 4.05 ERA in A+ ball in 2019, but he's shown a terrific ability to strike hitters out, and has kept his walks down.  There's hope that he can make it to the majors either as a backend starter, or as a versatile, multi-inning reliever in a big league bullpen.

Overall 2019 1st Round Grade: B-

Conclusion:

The St. Louis Cardinals in this decade did a very good job of drafting players, as they have developed their upper echelon players into being very good producers for their team over the years such as Jack Flaherty, Kolten Wong, and Michael Wacha, and they also managed to flip some of their other first round picks to acquire major league players that would help their ball club.  The Cards have also appeared to draft some duds along the way, but it seems that they excelled at finding talented players in these drafts that would go on to help their team.

Overall 1st Round Draft Grade of the 2010s Decade: B

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