Friday, November 1, 2019

Analyzing the 2019 Shortstops Rankings' Forecast


There’s enough time to go through one more list.  Right after the MLB Network put out their list of top 10 first basemen for the 2019 season, they put out their list for the top 10 shortstops for that season.  Cleveland Indians’ shortstop, Francisco Lindor was the near-unanimous choice for the top spot for that year, while San Diego Padres’ shortstop Manny Machado received Vince Gennaro’s vote.

Here, we will look at lists of eight different analysts; from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Harold Reynolds, and fans from social media (whom I’m counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).

So listed below is the shortstop rankings of the 2019 MLB season using the Fangraphs’ WAR method (the Baseball-Reference WAR method is actually different, and is closer to the one the MLB Network uses, but the Fangraphs WAR method is used here because I feel that it is more accurate in generally evaluating pitching and defense).   Then, I will provide you with an overview with how I did over for the 2019 MLB season, compared to the Shredder.

 2019 Shortstop Rankings:


2019 SS Alan Lu Shredder Petriello Gennaro Lindbergh Kenny Reynolds Fans fWAR Rank
Xander Bogaerts 7 15 7 5 6 3 5 9 6.8 1
Trevor Story 9 3 3 8 8 4 8 7 5.8 2
Francisco Lindor 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 4.4 3
Javier Baez 8 2 5 4 7 7 4 2 4.4 3
Paul DeJong 10 8 15 15 15 10 10 15 4.1 5
Trea Turner 4 15 9 6 9 9 6 15 3.5 6
Corey Seager 2 7 6 7 4 8 7 8 3.3 7
Carlos Correa 5 6 8 3 3 2 3 5 3.2 8
Manny Machado 3 4 2 2 1 5 2 4 3.1 9
Jean Segura 15 9 10 9 10 15 9 15 2.3 10
Andrelton Simmons 6 5 4 10 5 6 15 6 1.7 11
Didi Gregorious 15 10 15 15 15 15 15 3 0.9 12
Brandon Crawford 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 0.4 13
Diff. Estimator 56 48 44 42 56 44 40 66
2019 Rank 6 5 3 2 6 3 1 8


....

The Findings:

In using the Fangraphs' WAR method, Harold Reynolds ended up being the most accurate analyst in projecting shortstops for the 2019 season.  He had the most players ranked as a top 10 finisher on this list among those that were ranked by analysts, and he was right on the mark in his Trea Turner and Corey Seager predictions while also having done a good job of picking Jean Segura to finish in the back half of the top 10 list.

For me, I think I did okay in general, but so did everyone else, so my list gets knocked down as a result.  This time around, I didn't rate Xander Bogaerts or Trevor Story high enough, and I actually had Javier Baez too low in my top 10 list.  I did a good job of rating Trea Turner in the right range while also having put Paul DeJong in my top 10 list, but I ended up over-rating Andrelton Simmons here, while having placed a bit too much faith in Corey Seager to finish near the top of the list, as Seager ended up having a good, but not great 2019 season.

The Shredder also did okay, but they finished in the middle of the pack in terms of accuracy, so they will get knocked down a bit as well.  On the plus side, they did a good job of rating Trevor Story high, and they also had Jean Segura in the appropriate range.  However, the Shredder missed the mark by not having rated Xander Bogaerts or Trea Turner for the second year in a row, and they rated Simmons and Didi Gregorious too high.  Gregorious started the year on the injured list and came back, but he did not end up playing as well as people thought he would, which hurt the Shredder and fans' ranking here.  Therefore, I will give myself a C, and the Shredder a C+ for our efforts in making these predictions of shortstops this past year.

In analyzing two years worth of data in who you should follow for your 2020 shortstops' forecast, it appears to be a three-way tie between Mike Petriello, Brian Kenny, and Harold Reynolds.  In general, people have tended to be quite accurate in making shortstop predictions, and sometimes analysts may have sleeper picks that end up doing far better than anyone else may anticipate.

As for whether or not if you should care about my shortstop predictions for the 2020 season, yes, you should.  Though I placed in 6th place this year in shortstop projections, I finished first in projecting 2018 shortstops in the sample that we looked at a while back, as my tendency to project sleepers generally have boded well for me in this category.

So to wrap it up, here we go....



Here's my 2018 Report Card on my 2019 positions' forecast on baseball players: 

2019 Catchers: D
2019 First Basemen: B-
2019 Second Basemen: C-
2019 Shortstops: C
2019 Third Basemen: B+
2019 Left Fielders: A-
2019 Center Fielders: A-
2019 Right Fielders: A-
2019 Starting Pitchers: C
2019 Relief Pitchers: D-

Alan Lu's 2019 Baseball Forecast Grade: C+

Meanwhile, here's the Shredder's 2018 Report Card on how they rated players via their top 10 lists:

2019 Catchers: C+
2019 First Basemen: B
2019 Second Basemen: D
2019 Shortstops: C+
2019 Third Basemen: C
2019 Left Fielders: C
2019 Center Fielders: A-
2019 Right Fielders: B
2019 Starting Pitchers: D+
2019 Relief Pitchers: C

The Shredder's 2019 Baseball Forecast Grade: C+

(assessment from myself, Alan Lu)

_____

When tallying up all the grades individually, I came out barely ahead.  So therefore I will say, that my 2019 projections this year overall were slightly better than the Shredder, as the grade averages come out to 78.9 to 77.5.

Overall, both me and the Shredder had a better season this year than in 2018, though we both had our fair share of misses.  My outfielder picks were great this year, but I need to get better at projecting catchers and pitchers.  For the Shredder, they did a good job of picking first basemen, center fielders, and right fielders, though they also were inaccurate in making projections in the other categories.


Making projections is not an easy business,
but if you come out ahead, that's a good thing.
(Picture courtesy of GIPHY and C2TCH's tumblr page via the movie Friday)

To sum it up, you win some, and you lose some.  Well, hope you enjoyed this, and thank you for reading.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  


Goodbye top 10 baseball lists....until next time.
(In this clip, Jon Stewart and John Oliver were dancing to Mystikal's song, Danger!)
(Photo courtesy of GIPHY, and the Daily Show.)

Thank you baseball, this was a good season, I enjoyed watching the St. Louis Cardinals get into the playoffs, and they had a magnificent 13-run game in the pivotal 5th game of the NLDS to get into the NLCS, and congratulations to the Washington Nationals for winning the title.  In the meantime, I'll try my best to get out those pesky top 10 baseball lists in January or February for the 2020 MLB season.


Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Revisiting the 2019 First Basemen Rankings' Forecast


On January 27th,  the MLB Network asked people on Twitter to vote for the top first basemen for the 2019 baseball season.  This year, the Shredder voted St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to be atop their list for the 2019 season, and plenty of the analysts agreed.  On the other hand, there were plenty of other analysts that felt that Atlanta Braves’ first baseman Freddie Freeman would be the best among players that play that position for the upcoming year.  When it was all said and done, there was another player that ended up leading first basemen in Fangraphs WAR this year.

Here, we will look at and assess the projections of eight analysts, from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Jim Thome, and fans from social media (whom for simplicity purposes, will count as one singular vote).  So, how did we all do?  Let’s find out for ourselves, using the Fangraphs’ WAR method.

2019 First Basemen Rankings:


2019 1B Alan Lu Shredder Petriello Gennaro Lindbergh Kenny Thome Fans fWAR Rank
Max Muncy 7 4 7 2 7 8 6 7 4.8 1
Carlos Santana 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 4.4 2
Freddie Freeman 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 4 3
Anthony Rizzo 5 5 3 5 4 4 3 4 4 3
Matt Olson 6 6 5 8 5 7 9 6 3.9 5
Paul Goldschmidt 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 2.9 6
Edwin Encarnacion 15 15 15 15 15 9 15 15 2.5 7
Rhys Hoskins 4 9 6 6 6 6 8 5 2.2 8
Jose Abreu 15 10 15 15 10 10 7 10 1.9 9
Joey Votto 3 3 4 4 3 3 5 3 0.7 10
Brandon Belt 9 15 15 15 8 15 15 15 0.5 11
Justin Smoak 15 7 15 10 15 15 15 15 0.2 12
Jesus Aguilar 8 8 8 7 9 5 4 15 -0.1 13
Daniel Murphy 15 15 10 15 15 15 15 15 -0.2 14
Miguel Cabrera 15 15 9 9 15 15 10 9 -0.3 15
Eric Hosmer 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 8 -0.4 16
Diff. Estimator 60 58 70 66 56 58 66 70
2019 Rank 4 2 7 5 1 2 5 7

......

The Findings:

The Ringer's writer, Ben Lindbergh was found to have the most accurate list in projecting top 10 first basemen for the 2019 season.  Most of his picks were within range, though he did miss out picking Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion.

I think I did alright here.  Like Lindbergh, most of my picks were also within range, but I did a good job of picking Carlos Santana to be in my top 10 when no one else did, and Santana went on to have a great year.  However, Cincinnati Reds' first basemen, Joey Votto underperformed, as did Milwaukee Brewers' first baseman, Jesus Aguilar.

The Shredder also did a good job of making their picks, as their picks also tended to be within range, and they did a good job of rating Max Muncy high, while they rated Rhys Hoskins and Jose Abreu in the appropriate range, but they also missed on several picks such as Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion, while over-reaching on Justin Smoak and Jesus Aguilar.  So overall, I will give myself a B- and the Shredder a B, as I think we both did a pretty good job, though we didn't really uncover any big sleepers for the 2019 season.

The most interesting thing was that Los Angeles Dodgers' first baseman, Max Muncy led all first basemen in Fangraphs WAR (4.8) in 2019, as he had a very good season this year.  On the flip side, others such as Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt did not fare nearly as well as they failed to meet some rather lofty expectations, as both of them finished in the middle of the pack this season.

In analyzing two years worth of data in evaluating first basemen via the Fangraphs' WAR method, your go-to, point person for the 2020 First Basemen forecast should be Ringer's writer, Ben Lindbergh.  Most of his picks tend to be within range, and sometimes he will make sleeper picks that will do better than others may anticipate.

As for whether or not if you should care about my 2020 first basemen rankings' projections, yes, you definitely should.  I was the most accurate analyst in the sample we looked at in forecasting 2018 first basemen, and my 2019 list regarding this category was not too shabby in itself.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Thursday, October 31, 2019

A Look Back at the 2019 Pitchers' Rankings Forecast of Both Starters and Relievers

Normally, I like to do things in chronological order in terms of the lists from shows that were rolled out on the MLB Network.  The relief pitchers actually happened last in the 2019 chronology, as the starting pitchers, first basemen, and shortstops' list all came before it, but the results of the top 10 rankings of 2019 relievers was such a crapshoot that I decided that the relief pitchers' list did not merit having its own post.  So I decided to lump the results of the pitchers' rankings in general, as you will be looking at how people's predictions of starting pitchers and relievers did this year.

In reviewing the results of the 2019 starting pitchers' forecast, we will use the Fangraphs' WAR to assess the results of picks made by analysts such as from myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Ron Darling, and fans from social media (whom I am counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).

So without further ado, how did we all do?

2019 Starting Pitchers' Rankings:

2019 Starters Alan Lu Shredder Petriello Gennaro Lindbergh Kenny Darling Fans fWAR Rank
Gerrit Cole 9 15 8 4 6 8 15 15 7.4 1
Jacob deGrom 3 3 1 1 3 2 4 1 7 2
Max Scherzer 2 1 2 2 2 4 1 2 6.5 3
Justin Verlander 4 5 4 5 4 3 6 5 6.4 4
Walker Buehler 15 15 10 15 15 15 15 15 5 5
Patrick Corbin 15 15 15 7 15 15 15 15 4.8 6
Noah Syndergaard 15 15 15 10 15 15 15 15 4.4 7
Chris Sale 1 2 3 3 1 1 3 3 3.6 8
Aaron Nola 6 6 5 15 9 9 8 7 3.4 9
Clayton Kershaw 10 7 15 15 15 10 5 6 3.4 9
Trevor Bauer 15 15 9 15 7 7 15 9 3.3 11
Blake Snell 15 10 6 8 15 6 10 4 2.7 12
Carlos Carrasco 8 9 15 6 8 15 7 15 1.0 13
Corey Kluber 5 4 7 9 5 5 2 8 0.6 14
Luis Severino 7 8 15 15 10 15 9 10 0.5 15
Diff. Estimator 77 83 63 57 73 65 87 77
2019 Rank 5 7 2 1 4 3 8 5

....

The Findings:

Neither me nor the Shredder did especially that well here.  I think I was about in the middle of the pack while the Shredder rated towards the bottom of the list in terms of accuracy here.

For me, several of the pitchers I had in my top 5 were well within range, but neither me nor the Shredder rated Houston Astros' Gerrit Cole high enough, and we also omitted Buehler, Corbin, and Syndergaard from our lists.  The Shredder completely omitted Gerrit Cole, which was a bad look for them since Cole finished atop the Fangraphs' WAR among starters in 2019.

I did have Clayton Kershaw in about the right range, but they had Blake Snell a little too high on their list.  Overall, I would give myself a C, and the Shredder will get a D+ for their efforts on starting pitchers here in 2019.

Interestingly enough, Vince Gennaro had the best list in making predictions of starting pitchers in 2019.  He did a good job of rating Gerrit Cole high on his list, as he was the highest on Gerrit Cole, who rewarded him by having a fantastic season for the Astros this year.  Gennaro also had the good sense to put both Patrick Corbin and Noah Syndergaard on his top 10 list, and Corbin was an integral pitcher on the eventual 2019 World Series champions, the Washington Nationals this season.

In analyzing two years worth of data, the go-to, pinpoint person for your 2020 starting pitchers' forecast should be Mike Petriello.  A good number of picks regarding starting pitchers have been well within range, and he also will sometimes pick sleepers that will turn out to play far better than anyone else may have anticipated.

_____

So now, we will take a look at how various analysts did in terms of projecting 2019 relievers when making their top 10 lists.  The analysts' lists we will be looking at will be of myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Dan Plesac, and fans from social media (whom I am counting as one vote for simplicity purposes).

As I have mentioned above, pretty much everyone had a terrible time predicting relief pitchers, because forecasting their eventual results may be the toughest thing to do in baseball.  Case in point, Craig Kimbrel was the closer on the 2018 World Series champions' Boston Red Sox, and he had been a 7-time All-Star that had made the last three All-Star teams prior to the 2019 season.  Kimbrel even earned a couple of first place votes in terms of who would be the best reliever for this season, unfortunately from both myself and the Shredder, and he was on every analyst's top 10 list (in this case, I'm counting fans as one vote for simplicity purposes).

But Kimbrel was unsigned to start the year as he signed midway with the Chicago Cubs after missing the first couple of months of the 2019 season, and Kimbrel went on to have a terrible season, as he finished with a horrendous 6.53 ERA that also helped lead manager Joe Maddon to getting fired at the end of the year.  Kimbrel was unanimously had the worst season among relievers that was ranked by analysts on this list, but no one could have predicted just how terrible he would pitch, even despite the fact that he missed two months of the season due to greed, pure selfishness, and just him wanting too much money as his absence away from spring training and the early part of the regular season may have left him unprepared for the rigors of the 2019 Major League Baseball season.  That and the fact that Kimbrel is in his early-30s, as the decline stage really hit him like a ton of bricks this year.

I really didn't want my last post on the 2019 top 10 lists to be on relief pitchers, and for good reason.  No one was very accurate in their projections in this category, and what you will see below are a lot of relief pitchers who were not projected to be top 10 relievers of 2019 that went on to do so for that season.

2019 Relief Pitchers:


2019 Relievers Alan Lu Shredder Petriello Gennaro Lindbergh Kenny Plesac Fans fWAR Rank
Kirby Yates 15 15 15 5 15 15 15 15 3.4 1
Josh Hader 2 3 1 3 2 1 2 1 2.3 2
Felipe Vazquez 15 6 15 15 6 15 4 15 2.1 3
Aroldis Chapman 15 8 7 10 4 15 7 5 2 4
Brad Hand 7 15 15 15 15 9 15 15 1.5 5
Ryan Pressly 15 15 10 6 3 15 15 15 1.5 5
Adam Ottavino 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 9 1.3 7
Chad Green 4 7 15 15 15 15 15 15 1.2 8
Kenley Jansen 8 15 9 15 8 5 9 10 1.2 8
Jose Leclerc 15 9 6 4 15 15 15 15 1.2 8
Raisel Iglesias 9 15 15 15 15 4 8 15 1.1 11
Sean Doolittle 15 2 5 15 15 15 6 15 0.7 12
Jordan Hicks 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6 0.5 13
Jeremy Jeffress 15 15 15 15 15 7 15 15 0.3 14
Dellin Betances 6 15 4 15 7 15 10 7 0.1 15
Edwin Diaz 3 4 2 1 1 3 5 2 0 16
Corey Knebel 5 15 15 15 10 15 15 15 0 16
Brandon Morrow 15 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 0 16
David Robertson 15 15 15 15 15 10 15 15 -0.1 19
Jeurys Familia 15 15 15 8 15 15 15 15 -0.2 20
Blake Treinen 15 5 3 2 5 2 1 3 -0.3 21
Andrew Miller 10 15 15 9 15 6 15 8 -0.4 22
Craig Kimbrel 1 1 8 7 9 8 3 4 -1.0 23
Difference Estimator 159 149 153 151 137 175 147 165
2019 Rank 6 3 5 4 1 8 2 7

...

(Just for a reference and to clarify things, even though 23 different relief pitchers made the top 10 lists of eight analysts above here, the 15 number just indicates a player who was NOT on that analyst's top 10 list.)

The Findings:

The relievers' forecast did not end up well, as there ended up being a good number of relievers that were top 10 finishers on this list that were not projected to do so before the season started.  Craig Kimbrel managed to be the LVP of this list, as he was on everybody's top 10 list, and even received a couple of first place votes, and everybody missed at least half of the relievers that made the top 10 list among those ranked by analysts at the end of the year.

It's not easy predicting how well relief pitchers
would fare in any given season, and this season was no different.
The relievers' category was the last accurate list made by analysts in 2019.
(Photo courtesy of Don and Y.F. via Know Your Meme)

I did not put out a great top 10 relievers' list for the MLB season, but neither did the Shredder.  Only Vince Gennaro expected Kirby Yates to excel as one of the best relievers this season, and I missed out on too many relief pitchers.  The Shredder also missed out on a handful as well, but so did the first place finisher of this list, Ben Lindbergh.

In analyzing two years worth of data, if there is anybody that you should go to as the go-to, point person for your 2020 relievers' forecast, it would be the Ringer's writer Ben Lindbergh, as his list has been more accurate than others using the Fangraphs' WAR method in the past two seasons.

On the bright side, I did rate Cleveland Indians' Brad Hand significantly higher than others, and he went on to have a pretty good season.  But overall regarding the 2019 relievers' forecast, I did not do a great job here, so I'll give myself a D-, and the Shredder will get a C.  They did finish in the upper half of this list, but no one was very accurate in general, and both myself and the Shredder would get docked considerably for missing out on Kirby Yates and for putting Kimbrel atop our lists.  But the Shredder did rate Felipe Vazquez, Chad Green, and Jose Leclerc farely well, and those three all turned in pretty good seasons.  As for me, I am choosing not to give myself a failing grade because I did manage to predict that Brad Hand would have a solid season when almost no one else did.  But on the flip side, projecting how well relievers will do may actually be one of the toughest things to predict in baseball.

Also, on whether or not if you should care about who I rank in the top 10 amongst starting pitchers and relief pitchers for the 2020 season, I will say, no, you should not.  I have not been very accurate in predicting starting pitchers so far, as there are always a few pitchers I miss out on at or near the top, and you definitely should not care about my list regarding 2020 relievers, as I have not at all found a way to accurate project relievers yet.  I might keep trying, but unfortunately, I've placed at or near the bottom in predicting relievers each time for the past two seasons.  Predicting outfielders and first basemen has been a strong suit of mine, but unfortunately, predicting pitchers has not been a strong suit for me yet.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.