Forecasting the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' Season

Hello Cardinals' Nation!  The 2021 season is right around the corner, and here is who made the team on Opening Day, as well as my thoughts on them for the upcoming season as well as my predictions.

Analyzing the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' Team

Jack Flaherty is a very talented pitcher that had a down 2020 season, but he's expected to pitch well this year.

(Photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images, via Sportscasting)

Starting Pitchers (5)

Jack Flaherty
2020 (MLB): 4-3. 4.91 ERA, 40.1 IP, 7.4 H9, 1.3 HR9, 3.6 BB9, 10.9 K9, 4.11 FIP, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-1, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 9 H9, 0 HR9, 3 BB9, 12 K9

He is a young ace that had a very good 2019 season, but he struggled in the shortened 2020 season.  The Cardinals took him to arbitration and lost, and now that move may have cost the Cards, as it may have just increased the odds of them potentially losing Flaherty to free agency when his contract runs up.  This season though, Flaherty is expected to have a solid 2021 season.

Adam Wainwright
2020 (MLB): 5-3, 3.15 ERA, 65.2 IP, 7.4 H9, 1.2 HR9, 2.1 BB9, 7.4 K9, 4.10 FIP, 1.0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0 5.40 ERA, 3.1 IP, 16.2 H9, 0 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 8.1 KP

Wainwright is historically a very good pitcher, and he was the most reliable pitcher in 2020.  He's an aging veteran that is in a race with Father Time, but he is a proven pitcher that will be counted on to pitch well this season once again.

Carlos Martinez
2020 (MLB): 0-3, 9.90 ERA, 20 IP, 14.4 H9, 2.7 HR9, 4.5 BB9, 7.7 K9, 6.89 FIP, -0.2 FIP

Martinez is a former All-Star that once threw triple digits, but he really struggled in the shortened 2020 season, and he's had arm injuries.  He made the rotation, but it's uncertain if he can get back to being his former All-Star self.

Daniel Ponce De Leon
2020 (MLB): 1-3, 4.96 ERA, 32.2 IP, 6.3 H9, 2.2 HR9, 5.5 BB9, 12.4 K9, 5.64 FIP, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-1, 27 ERA, 1 IP, 18 H9, 18 HR9, 9 BB9, 18 K9

He was previously a long man that excelled in his role, and after a couple of injuries that happened to other starting pitchers, Ponce de Leon won a role in the starting rotation this season.  Ponce de Leon also throws hard, and he has strikeout stuff.

John Gant
2020 (MLB): 0-3, 2.40 ERA, 15 IP, 5.4 H9, 0 HR9, 4.2 BB9, 10.8 K9, 2.19 FIP, 0.5 WAR

He was previously a long man that excelled in his role, and after a couple of injuries that happened to other starting pitchers, Gant won a role in the starting rotation this season.

The St. Louis Cardinals' starting rotation is a little banged up, so Gant and Ponce de Leon ended up being announced as starters on opening day.  Kwang-Hyun Kim was said to be day-to-day, but he and Miles Mikolas will start the season on the injured list.

Relievers (8)

Giovanny Gallegos
2020 (MLB): 2-2, 3.60 ERA, 4 SV, 15 IP, 5.4 H9, 0.6 HR9, 2.4 BB9, 12.6 K9, 2.06 FIP, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 1-0, 9.00 ERA, 2 IP, 13.5 H9, 9 HR9, 4.5 BB9, 13.5 K9

Gallegos was the most reliable bullpen pitcher, and he projects to pitch very well for the Cardinals this season.

Alex Reyes
2020 (MLB): 2-1, 3.20 ERA, 19.2 IP, 6.4 H9, 0.5 HR9, 6.4 BB9, 12.4 K9, 3.24 FIP, 0.5 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 2.70 ERA, 3.1 IP, 5.4 H9, 2.7 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 8.1 K9

Reyes is a flamethrower that improved immensely from 2019 to 2020, and he projects to be a good bullpen pitcher this season.

Andrew Miller
2020 (MLB): 1-1, 2.77 ERA, 4 SV, 13 IP, 6.2 H9, 0 HR9, 3.5 BB9, 11.1 K9, 2.58 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.2 IP, 13.5 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 0 K9

Miller is a solid, proven bullpen pitcher that has been reliable for plenty of years, but he is aging veteran that is in a race with Father Time to stay healthy and to pitch well for years to come.

Jordan Hicks
2020 (MLB): DNP – Injured

Hicks is a flamethrower that once threw 105 MPH, but he's been injured, and he had a rocky spring, but he still has a lot of potential to succeed in the bullpen this year.

Genesis Cabrera
2020 (MLB): 4-1, 2.42 ERA, 22.1 IP, 4 H9, 1.2 HR9, 6.4 BB9, 12.9 K9, 4.76 FIP, -0.1 FIP
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 18 ERA, 1 IP, 9 H9, 0 HR9, 27 BB9, 9 K9

He pitched well in the bullpen in 2020, and while he's had control issues, Cabrera is a hard-throwing lefty that could pitch well again this year to help solidify the Cards' pen.

Ryan Helsley
2020 (MLB): 1-1, 5.25 ERA, 6 H9, 2.3 HR9, 6 BB9, 7.5 K9, 7.02 FIP, -0.4 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.2 IP, 5.4 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 10.8 K9

Helsley is a hard throwing bullpen arm that shows promise to succeed in the bullpen.

Tyler Webb   (projected to get sent down when Mikolas returns)
2020 (MLB): 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 21.2 IP, 7.1 H9, 0.8 HR9, 2.9 BB9, 7.9 K9, 3.61 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 13.50 ERA, 0.2 IP, 13.5 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 0 K9

Webb is a lefty that pitched well in the spring, and he was fairly reliably in the bullpen this year, but he will need to show that he can also get righties out.

Jake Woodford (projected to get sent down when Kim returns)
2020 (MLB): 1-0, 5.57 ERA, 21 IP, 8.6 H9, 3 HR9, 2.1 BB9, 6.9 K9, 6.71 FIP, -0.3 WAR

Woodford is a versatile, young pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen, and he pitched well in the spring to earn a spot on this team.

Catchers (2)

Yadier Molina
2020 (MLB): .262 AVG, 4 HR, 16 RBI, .303 OBP, .359 SLG, .662 OPS, 13.5 K%, 0.5 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .462 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .500 OBP, .615 SLG, 1.115 OPS

Yadi is a future Hall of Fame Catcher, and he's historically a tremendous defensive catcher.  Numbers wise though, he seems to be on the verge or on the decline, and his offensive numbers are steadily decreasing.  Molina is the everyday catcher, but he may need some days off so he can rest up and play at full strength this season.

Andrew Knizner
2020 (MLB): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .300 OBP, .229 SLG, .529 OPS, 24.4 K%, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0 for 2, .000, .000 OPS, 1 K

He was a former prized catching prospect who will be Yadi's backup on opening day.  Knizner has not hit well in the majors, but he's shown flashes of his potential, but most likely, he will just be there to give Yadi a breather when he needs it.

Infielders (7)

The St. Louis Cardinals' tandem of Paul Goldschmid and Nolan Arenado will be exciting to watch, that's for sure.
Photo via Getty Images

Nolan Arenado

2020 (COL): .253 AVG, 8 HR, 26 RBI, .303 OBP, .434 SLG, .738 OPS, 10 K%, 0.9 WAR, Gold Glove winner
2019 (COL): .315 AVG, 41 HR, 118 RBI, .379 OBP, .583 SLG, .962 OPS, 14 K%, 6 WAR, All-Star, Gold Glove winner

Nolan Arenado is a very good third baseman that was acquired via trade with Colorado.  He is a good hitter and he is also a tremendous fielder.  He'll team up with Goldschmidt to form a formidable force in the Cards' lineup.

Tommy Edman
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 5 HR, 26 RBI, .317 OBP, .368 SLG, .685 OPS, 21.1 K%, 0.8 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .214 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .214 OBP, .214 SLG, .429 OPS

Edman is a versatile infielder that can play multiple positions, and he is a fairly solid hitter that can hit for a pretty high average.  He had a very good rookie season that was followed by a sophomore slump, but currently he has played his way to get plenty of at-bats and playing time this season.

Paul DeJong
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 3 HR, 25 RBI, .322 OBP, .349 SLG, .671 OPS, 28.7 K%, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .429 OBP, .300 SLG, .729 OPS

DeJong is a power-hitting shortstop that has a good set of tools, and he is also a solid fielder, but his hitting approach leaves much to be desired.  Still, if he can hit for a decent average and get his numbers back up, he can be an upper-tier shortstop in the majors.

Paul Goldschmidt

2020 (MLB): .304 AVG, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .417 OBP, .466 SLG, .883 OPS, 18.6 K%, 2.1 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .231 AVG, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .286 OBP, .769 SLG, 1.055 OPS

Goldschmidt had a very good 2020 season, and he was the Cardinals' best hitter and player last year.  He'll team up with Arenado to form a strong punch in the lineup.

Matt Carpenter
2020 (MLB): .186 AVG, 4 HR, 24 RBI, .325 OBP, .314 SLG, .640 OPS, 28.4 K%, 0.3 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .222 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .429 OBP, .333 SLG, .762 OPS

Carpenter has a good track record, and he is a former multi-All-Star that has hit well previously in the postseason.  He hasn't hit well in recent years, and he's coming off a terrible spring.  He's on the team, but right now, he looks to be a shell of his former self.  Some are hoping that he'll come around to suddenly hit nearly as well as he used to, but I wouldn't bet on it.

John Nogowski 
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .250 OBP, .250 SLG, .500 OPS, 25.0 K%, 0 WAR

He certainly played his way onto the team, and he had a tremendous spring this year.  He mashed the crap out of the baseball, and his ability to hit should bolster the team's bench.

Edmundo Sosa
2020 (STL/MLB): Did not play.
2019 (STL/MLB): .250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 SB, .450 OBP, .250 SLG, .650 OPS, 20.0 K%, 0 WAR
2019 (AAA): .291 AVG, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 2 SB, .335 OBP, .466 SLG, .801 OPS, 19.4 K%

I was a little surprised that Edmundo Sosa made the team over Jose Rondon and Max Moroff, considering that Rondon is a power-hitting infielder that started off by having a very good spring, but Rondon cooled off a bit towards the end.  I also thought Moroff was a good challenger for the backup utility infielder position as well, as he also hit well in the spring and is a switch hitter, but Sosa is thought to have a higher upside, and he is also out of options, and the Cards don't want to pass him through waivers without knowing how well he would play in the majors.  Sosa didn't have a great spring, but he played well enough and showed enough to make the team.

Outfielders (4)

Dylan Carlson
2020 (MLB): .200 AVG, 3 HR, 16 RBI, .252 OBP, .364 SLG, .616 OPS, 29.4 K%, 0.2 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .333 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .571 OBP, .444 SLG, 1.016 OPS

He was the Cards' prized hitting prospect, but they didn't call him up right away, and Carlson struggled in the majors in 2020.  He did have a good postseason, and he is a good fielder.  He has a solid set of all-around tools, but his hitting approach was fairly suspect in the majors.  Carlson will be the starter on opening day.

Tyler O’Neill
2020 (MLB): .173 AVG, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 3 SB, .261 OBP, .360 SLG, .621 OPS, 27.4 K%, 0.5 WAR, Gold Glove
2020 (Postseason): 3 GP, 0 for 0, N/A OPS

O'Neill has a tremendous set of tools, and he has a lot of pop in his bat, but his hitting approach leaves much to be desired.  He strikes a ton, but he is also a very good fielder, as evidenced by his Gold Glove win last season.

Justin Williams
2020 (MLB): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .333 OBP, .200 SLG, .533 OPS, 33.3 K%, 0 WAR

He is a hitting prospect that played well in the spring, and he will get some at bats in the majors this season.

Austin Dean (projects to get sent down when Bader comes back)
2020 (MLB): .250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .571 OBP, .500 SLG, 1.071 OPS, 28.6 K%, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0 for 1, 0 OBP or OPS 

He is a fairly solid hitter that hit well in the spring, but Dean has historically not been a very good fielder in the majors.  His tendency to strike out as also concerning.  It was thought that Lane Thomas would win the job, but Dean played well enough to make the team on Opening Day.

Injured:

Harrison Bader (IL)
2020 (MLB): .226 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 3 SB, .336 OBP, .443 SLG, .779 OPS, 32.0 K%, 1.0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): .111 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .182 OBP, .111 SLG, .293 OPS

He is a tremendous fielder, but he's not a very good hitter, and he has an even worse hitting approach.  He projects to be the starting center fielder when he returns from the IL.

Miles Mikolas (IL)
2020 (MLB): DNP, injured

He is a solid veteran pitcher who can control his pitches, and he is a mid-tier starting pitcher.  After having a very good 2018 season, he had an up and down 2019 season, and he missed all of last season.

Kwang-Hyun Kim (IL)
2020 (MLB): 3-0, 1.62 ERA, 39 IP, 6.5 H9, 0.7 HR9, 2.8 BB9, 5.5 K9, 3.88 FIP, 0.6 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 7.36, 3.2 IP, 12.3 H9, 0 HR9, 4.9 BB9, 4.9 BB

He is a solid veteran pitcher who can control his pitches, and he is a mid-tier starting pitcher.  He had a rough spring, but he's expected to provide some solid innings this year.

Dakota Hudson* (60-day IL)
2020 (MLB): 3-2, 2.77 ERA, 39 IP, 5.5 H9, 1.2 HR9, 3.5 BB9, 7.2 K9, 4.50 FIP, 0.4 WAR

He is a solid, young starting pitcher who can control his pitches, and he is a mid-tier starting pitcher.  He's out for the season though.

Sent down:

Kodi Whitley
2020 (MLB): 0-0, 1.93 ERA, 4.2 IP, 3.9 H9, 1.9 HR9, 1.9 BB9, 9.6 K9, 4.48 FIP, 0 WAR
2020 (Postseason): 0-0, 27 ERA, 0.1 IP, 27 H9, 27 HR9, 0 BB9, 0 K9

Johan Oviedo
2020 (MLB): 0-3, 5.47 ERA, 24.2 IP, 8.8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 3.6 BB9, 5.8 K9, 5.30 FIP, 0.1 WAR

Tommy Parsons*
2020 (MLB): Did not play.
2019 (College): 6-1, 2.11 ERA, 47 IP, 5.2H9, 0 HR9, 7.9 BB9, 11.9K9

Jose Rondon*
2020 (MLB): Did not play.
2019 (CHW/BAL/MLB): .196 AVG, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .263 OBP, .280 SLG, .543 OPS
2019 (AAA): .219 AVG, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .313 OBP, .356 SLG, .669 OPS

Max Moroff*
2020 (MLB): Did not play.
2019 (CLE): .125 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, .176 OBP, .250 SLG, .426 OPS
2019 (AAA): .213 AVG, 4 HR, 8 RBI, .375 OBP, .361 SLG, .736 OPS

Lane Thomas
2020 (MLB): .111 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .200 OBP, .250 SLG, .450 OPS, 32.5 K%, -0.3 WAR

Thought would make the team, but was sent down:

Jose Rondon*

Lane Thomas

Should they have made the team?

Matt Carpenter hit .186 last year, and he hit just .054 in the Spring with 0 homers, but his past proven track record helped him make the MLB roster this year.

Carlos Martinez had a 9.90 ERA last year, and he had a less than stellar 5.66 ERA in the spring, but he pitched better towards the end of the spring to be named the third starter in the team's rotation, and it also helped that Gant and Ponce de Leon were not noticeably better in the spring this year.

Current Grades for the 2021 season:
Pitchers: B-
Hitters: B-
Manager: B-

The backend of the starting rotation looks shaky, but the bullpen looks good, and I'm confident that the bullpen will pitch well.  The outfield looks a bit suspect, but I really like the group of infielders that the Cards have, and Yadier Molina is a proven, reliable veteran.

Projected Season Outcome: 3rd in the NL Central, behind the Brewers and Cubs, barely missing the playoffs

Hopefully, the Cardinals will prove my prediction wrong, but I'm not certain if the team's outfield or group of starters will be reliable enough to get this team back to the playoffs.  I am rooting for the Cardinals to win it all this year, though.

Anyways, those are my season predictions, and we'll see how everything shakes out.

Turning Up the Baseball Spice, and my 2021 MLB Season Predictions

Today, I'm writing about some off-topic baseball stuff, so don't attempt to tie this to my music.  This is my personal opinions on baseball, and that alone.  Anyways, for those that are open-minded, feel free to read on.  If you're not open to my different baseball opinions, I'll advise you to please stop reading now.

Anyways, as I was monitoring the MLB Network and scouring their twitter for Top 10 lists, rankings, and players to vote, I decided to take the time to vote in my free time to rank players.  Of course, my votes turned out to bring out the Scovilles, as baseball Twitter was not nearly ready for my opinions on who's good or not, and some trolls even harassed and yelled me just for having different opinions.  

To the haters, I'll say: F#@! THAT NOISE!  

And now, going to the spicy take alert in: 3....2......1.....

About to drop you some hot sauce.  Here is one of my favorite songs.  Beastie Boys ft. Nas, "Too Many Rappers," from the Beastie Boys' album, Hot Sauce Committee Part Two.

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The Spiciest Take In Baseball.......?

It's my belief that the best players make other players better around them, and the best players succeed both in the regular and the postseason.  The problem with baseball Twitter is that they are too stubborn to listen to unconventional takes, and their baseball discourse is too much in the black and white, and we need to see more of the gray area.

I feel like there is a legitimate reason to pick a bone with Mike Trout, even though I know most of you will disagree, because you guys will just point to his advanced metrics and WAR numbers.  The dispute is not if he is a superstar.  He is.  But, let me just say, he, to me, is overrated, and the fact that virtually everyone thinks him to be a no doubt the best center fielder in the game speaks volumes as to how overrated a player he truly is, especially considering he has never truly mattered in playoff baseball.  

Just some of the stuff for you guys to think about, these numbers from Mike Trout that you may not know about (Postseason batting courtesy of Baseball-Reference, and Clutch stats via Fangraphs):

Mike Trout has only been in one postseason in 2014, and he went 1 for 12 against the Kansas City Royals, and he went up against pitchers such as Danny Duffy, Jason Vargas, and Jason Frasor.  Your vaunted "G.O.A.T." couldn't get multiple hits against Ned Yost and the 2014 Kansas City Royals.  The Angels didn't even get to the 2020 postseason, where the top half of the league basically made the playoffs.  

Legends win titles.  Superstars are supposed to get their teams at least kind of far in the playoffs.  I know what you'll say.  "What about Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., or Ty Cobb?"  Well, very good players are great on average.  Great players can excel in the most specific circumstances.  Situational baseball IS important, and in the playoffs, you need very good players and a strong team to come through.  There is something as an empty stats guy on a bad team, and that guy would be the type of guy who hits a homer when his team is down 8-1 to pad his numbers, but strikes out when his team needs one run with the game is on the line in the 9th inning.  

You may argue that a player only gets 4 or 5 at-bats, but he can still make those at-bats count, and he can still try to play well in the field on defense.  Defense is the other half of the game.  Great players can rise to the occasion.  

Let's put it this way.  It would be an asinine argument to have crowned James Harden from 2017-2020 as the "G.O.A.T.," because we all know LeBron James is better.  Even though Harden led the league in Win Shares and PER for years, his lack of playoff success exposes the flaws of his game and the teams he played on.   

In basketball, we know better than just to read a linear weights metric or any kind of all inclusive metric straight off, because they all have flaws in some way or another.  But in baseball, WAR is treated as infallible, when it is a metric created by humans who don't understand that baseball can be a game that can be won in different ways, especially in the postseason.  Thus, those human elements have to be included in the discussion of who the best player is.  Mike Trout fails in the human elements of the discussion, because there is a stark dissonance between his individual success and his team success.  Thus, you need to raise questions, not double down on answers said by a flawed metric.

So no, I don't consider Mike Trout the G.O.A.T., your precious WAR statistic is not infallible, because it is a theoretical metric created by man.  While Trout is still technically a "superstar," and I won't debate that because he is a superstar, but he is not the G.O.A.T, and he's got a long way to go before he arrives in that discussion along the likes of Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Jackie Robinson, Bob Gibson, and others.  As for the center fielder rankings, I'd have preferred if they were to have put Mookie Betts in that list, because I'd have put Betts over Trout, because Betts has won, and also has consistently played well in both the regular and post season.  

You can keep your regular season numbers' guy (Trout).  If he is, that's cool.  Trout is very, very good at baseball.  That, I won't argue with.  He may be your favorite player, but he's not my favorite player.  But I'll stick to my old baseball favorites of Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Stan Musial, Albert Pujols, and Ozzie Smith (great players who are in the Hall of Fame and who also won titles).  Also, some of my favorites, Rickey Henderson, another guy who was great and significantly impacted the postseason.

If you hated my soapbox, then my baseball opinions aren't for you.  Just know that I'm a fan of both great players and winning.  The St. Louis Cardinals have the second most titles in MLB baseball history, second to the New York Yankees.  So before you decide to get all up in my grill, I'm saying, I have a right to my opinion, and it's kind of a valid argument. 

The naysayers may say argue, that clutch rankings like David Eckstein better than Mike Trout.  So what?  Eckstein WAS clutch.  He was terrific in the postseason, and he had a very good hitting approach to the plate.  He'd wear pitchers out, and he'd make them go through a ton of pitches, and he'd find ways to get on base.  He produced in critical moments in the World Series.  That's why he was the World Series MVP.  He rose to the occasion.  Eckstein was very good for the Angels and the Cards.  I enjoyed watching him play.  So please, don't knock Eckstein.  He was a good player in his own right.

I'll go ahead and cut to the chase.  My prediction is that Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels won't be making the 2021 MLB playoffs.  If he can get them to win the ALDS, then sure, maybe I'll consider him the best player in center field.  But I don't think that's happening this year, and that probably won't happen the next year, either.   

Truly great players in major league baseball can dominate a playoff series, and their presence can be unstoppable every time they step into the batters' box.  Carlos Beltran in 2003 did this for the Houston Astros in his first postseason.  David Ortiz did this in 2013 in the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals.  The effect Barry Bonds had was this: For a full series against a team, he could dominate and be unstoppable.  Mike Trout hasn't had this in a critical series or with meaningful stakes on the line.  So I can't accept him as the very best player in the game until he does this.

Great players should chase success, and rings are part of success.  You play the games to win, not just to pile up statistics that make you look cool.  Next time a player leaves your organization, don't blame the player, blame the organization and all of their infrastructure for not putting the player in the best place to succeed.  And if the player doesn't recognize if he's not in the best position to win, then it's on him, because players should want to win, and they should get fed up with losing.

Alright.  Your reactions may be:

T-Pain on the Hot Ones when eating the wings with hot sauce.  (via GIPHY)

Or maybe your reaction is....

From the Indiana Jones' Tomb Raiders of the Lost Ark (Pic via GIPHY).

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And now, on to my 2021 MLB Predictions based on my top 10 lists that you guys hate so much.

And....here is all of Baseball Twitter's reactions to my baseball takes.  (Pic via GIPHY, this was from the movie, Half Baked.)

My 2021 MLB Season Predictions:

I decided to rank teams based on this formula: 45% Hitters' Rankings, 45% Pitcher's Rankings, 10% Manager's Rankings.  I know.  Most people in the MLB stats community would probably frown at the idea of rating managers or thinking them to be valuable.  But managers are valuable, and their decisions can be beneficial or costly based on how well they manage their teams in games.

Here are my Rankings for the Team's Infield Rankings:

Here are my Rankings for the Team's Outfield Rankings:

Here are my Rankings for Pitchers:

Here are my complete positional rankings from all of the lists, and then I decided to rate some DHs and managers in my free time, too.

I'm not sure if you can read the above, so here is a more simplistic version of this:

Here are my projected standings in baseball for the time being:

In this model, here would be the projected 2021 MLB playoffs:

In the AL Wildcard game:

(4) Tampa Bay Rays would play against the (5) Minnesota Twins:  (4) Rays advance.

In the ALDS

(4) Tampa Bay Rays would play against the (1) Chicago White Sox: (1) White Sox advance in 5.

(2) New York Yankees would play against the (3) Oakland A's: (2) Yankees advance in 4.

In the ALCS:
(1) Chicago White Sox would play the (2) New York Yankees: (1) White Sox advance in 7.

It's a tough one, for some reason I believe in Lance Lynn.  He's won a lot of games, he's pitched quite well in the past 2 seasons, and technically the White Sox do have the reigning MVP in Jose Abreu.  Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert could be due for prime, breakout seasons. That said, the Yankees do have Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole, but the Yankees have seemed to have a lot of talent, but they keep coming up short.  The Yankees seem to me to be a bit top heavy, whereas the White Sox seem to have stronger back-end players, and they seem to be a more well-rounded team top to bottom.  It does seem tempting to take the Yankees, though, but I'll go with the White Sox here.

In the NL side of the bracket:

In the NL Wildcard game:
(4) Los Angeles Dodgers would play against (5) Washington Nationals: (4) Dodgers advance.

In the NLDS:

(4) Los Angeles Dodgers would play against the (1) San Diego Padres: (4) Dodgers advance in 5.
(2) New York Mets would play against the (3) Milwaukee Brewers: (2) Mets advance in 4.

The Dodgers-Padres' series would be tough.  Padres have a lot of talent and upside, but Dodgers have experience on their side.  Mookie Betts and Clay Bellinger have been through the ringer, and I know Bellinger's name has been dragged through the mud, but he is a versatile player that can play 1B, CF, he's hit 45 homers, and he's won the NLCS MVP.  That's one more postseason award than Trout's ever won.  Some of you will point to Bellinger's career playoff batting average as something to laugh at, but trust me, Mike Trout's career playoff batting average is twice as worse.

In the NLCS:
(4) Los Angeles Dodgers would play against the (2) New York Mets: (4) Dodgers advance in 6.

2021 World Series Predictions:

(4) Los Angeles Dodgers would play against the (1) Chicago White Sox: I'll pick the Dodgers in 6.

You've gotten this far in the article.  Your thoughts are probably.....

Parks and Recreation and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World's Aubrey Plaza was on The Hot Ones (Pic via GIPHY).

Now, the St. Louis Cardinals' fan in me wants me to say, SCREW those predictions I just made, the Cardinals are going to win 90-100 games, and they're winning it all!  

Alright, now take a deep breath.

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are good, but I have hesitations about the team's pitchers, outfielders, and general hitting approach.  Going all the way in run prevention is a bold choice.  I do think they still could compete to win the NL Central, though there will be a lot of competition they'll face this year.

I'm keeping my expectations my low, so that they'll have a low bar to clear, and hopefully maybe the Cards will make the playoffs and even win the 2021 title.  I've made my predictions, but I'm a Cardinals' fan, and they're my team I'm rooting for.  

Anyways, let's have a fun baseball season, as fun as it can be.

Here are my 2021 NBA All-Star Selections and Who I Voted For

Today is considered to be the last day to vote for NBA All-Stars.  It was pretty tough to debate amongst myself to decide who I should take.  Debates included such as do I take Rudy Gobert or Nikola Jokic as my starting center in the West, Bradley Beal or Kyrie Irving as my starting point guard in the East, and how much should I value the standings in making picks.  Also things I debated in my head, do I pick a starter on a bad team?  Do I pick a player that has been injured (Kyrie Irving), or is currently injured (Anthony Davis)?  All things to consider.  Here is what I decided to go with.

Who would make my 2021 NBA All-Star team?

I went on NBA.com to make my picks.  After much deliberation, here is who I voted for:

My West Starting 5:
C Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
F LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
F Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
G Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
G Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

My East Starting 5:
C Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
F Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
F Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets
G Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
G James Harden, Brooklyn Nets

I mostly went with very good players that were on winning teams, but I made an exception in Beal's case, who is currently the scoring leader this season.  Perhaps a controversial decision, but I went with it.

Here would be my reserve picks:

My Eastern Conference Reserves:

G Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
G Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
G Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls
F Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
C Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers
F Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
G-F-C Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

My Western Conference Reserves:

G Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns
G Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz
G-F Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
G-F DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs
C Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
F Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
r-F Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers (replacement)*

Injured player: F-C Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers

The head coaches would be:
Eastern Conference HC: Doc Rivers, Philadelphia 76ers
Western Conference HC: Quin Snyder, Utah Jazz

So in review, my picks for the 2021 NBA All-Star teams would be:

Now that you know who I voted for and who my reserves would be, go out and vote!  Make your picks!  Choose your own All-Star team!  And let's tune in together to see who actually makes the NBA All-Star team weeks from now.

So there you have it.  Thanks for reading.

Evaluating the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' Prospects: #1-20

This time around, I decided to rate the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' prospects that are currently in their organization.  After sifting through numerous websites, such as Prospects Live, Prospects 1500, Baseball Reference, and Fangraphs, I have poured over information to rate them accordingly.  Here are my rankings of the St. Louis Cardinals' prospects for the 2021 season.

I also attempted to project each of the top 20 prospects that I'm ranking in the St. Louis Cardinals' system for the 2021 season.  Without further ado, let's go to it, shall we say?

Dylan Carlson's 2020 Rookie of the Year campaign didn't go as expected, but he showed a solid glove, and he played better towards the end of the 2020 MLB season.  He also especially played well in the 2020 playoffs, which is an encouraging sign for how he may fare in the upcoming season.
(Photo: Ron Vesely/Getty Images)

1. OF Dylan Carlson - B+

Last year, I rated Dylan Carlson as one of the most ready prospects for the majors after having a terrific 2019 season, and I felt that he was a dark horse contender for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year award.  Unfortunately, he didn’t start the season in the majors, and he got off to a very slow start in the shortened 2020 season.

On the bright side, Carlson has fielded well in the big leagues, and he also managed to hit well in the postseason.  While he might not have the upside as the other elite prospects, Carlson has the skills to be a solid major league player, especially if his bat can come around this time.

2020 (STL/MLB):
.200 AVG, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .252 OBP, .364 SLG, .616 OPS, 29.4 K%, 0.2 WAR

2020 (STL Postseason):
.333 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 SB, .571 OBP, .444 SLG, 1.016 OPS, 21.4 K%

2019 (AAA): .
361 AVG, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, .418 OBP, .681 SLG, 1.098 OPS, 22.8 K%

2019 (AA):
.281 AVG, 21 HR, 59 RBI, 18 SB, .364 OBP, .518 SLG, .882 OPS,  20.3 K%

Projected 2021 Season:

2021 (MLB): 110 GP, 412 PA, 373 AB, 91 H, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 20 2B, 5 3B, 29 BB, 5 HBP, 5 SF, 6 SB, 4 CS, 114 K

Dylan Carlson’s Projected 2021 Season (Age 22 season):

2021 (STL/MLB): .244 AVG, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 6 SB, .303 OBP, .421 SLG, .724 OPS, 27.7 K%, 1.7 WAR (mostly glove-related)

2021’s Player’s Age (22) Season

Carlson’s 2021 Rating: 2 stars (3.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting Right Fielder for the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals

Future role: Starting Right Fielder for the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals

ETA: 2021

Nolan Gorman is a prized prospect in the Cardinals' farm system, but he didn't exactly dominate in the minors in 2019, and his strikeout rates in the minors may be rather alarming for a player that is considered to be a top prospect.
(Photo: Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

2. 3B Nolan Gorman - B

Nolan Gorman has been a prized prospect in the Cardinals’ farm system for plenty of years now.  He is an offensive minded, power-hitting third baseman that can hit and mash, and he’s been rated very high on prospect boards across many websites.  

One alarming trend though, is that he has consistently struck out at high rates in the minors, and he hasn’t quite played nearly as well at higher levels.  He’s got plenty of potential, but there is a concern that his high whiff rate may not bode well for him in the high minors.

2020 (STL): Did not play

2019 (A+):  .256 AVG, 5 HR, 21 RBI, .304 OBP, .428 SLG, .732 OPS, 31.7 K%

2019 (A): .241 AVG, 10 HR, 41 RBI, .344 OBP, .448 SLG, .792 OPS, 28 K%

2018 (A): .202 AVG, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .280 OBP, .426 SLG, .706 OPS, 36.4 K%

2018 (Rk): .350 AVG, 11 HR, 28 RBI, .443 OBP, .664 SLG, 1.107 OPS, 22.2 K%

Projected 2021 Season (20/21 Season):

2021 (AA): 100 GP, 422 PA, 385 AB, 93 H, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 20 2B, 4 3B, 29 BB, 6 HBP, 2 SF, 1 SB, 2 CS, 141 K

2021 (AAA): 25, 106 PA, 97 AB, 22 H, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 4 2B, 1 3B, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 1 SF, 0 SB, 1 CS, 37 K

Nolan Gorman’s Projected 2021 Season (Age 20/21 season):

(AA): .242 AVG, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB, .303 OBP, .408 SLG,  .711 OPS, 33.4 K%

(AAA): .227 AVG, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB, .283 OBP, .381 SLG, .664 OPS, 34.9 K%

2021’s Player’s Age (20/21) Season

Gorman’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (3 star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting AA Third Baseman in the Cardinals’ Farm system

Future role: Starting Third Baseman on the St. Louis Cardinals

ETA: 2022

3. SS/RHP Masyn Winn - B

2020 (HS): 

As a hitter, .417 AVG, 8 HR, 46 RBI

As a pitcher, 13-0, 0.67 ERA, 76.1 IP, 117 K, 13.8 K/9

Link: https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/first-arkansas-signee-off-the-board-in-2020-mlb-draft

2019 (HS): Stats not available.

Masyn Winn is a two-way player that can play multiple positions, and he was drafted to play both shortstop and be a pitcher in the St. Louis Cardinals’ farm system.  He is said to have very good tools both as a shortstop and as a pitcher.  He has not played in the minors, but he is a young player that may possess plenty of upside as a prospect for the majors.

2021 Season Projection: Not available.

2021’s Player’s Age (19) Season

Winn’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (3 Star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starter in Rookie Ball in the St. Louis Cardinals’ Farm System

Future role: Starter in the majors

ETA: 2025

 

4. 3B Jordan Walker - B

2020 (HS): 16 GP, .457 AVG, 4 HR, 15 RBI, N/A OBP, N/A SLG, N/A OPS

2019 (HS): .519 AVG, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 24 SB, N/A OBP, N/A SLG, N/A OPS

Link: His Wikipedia page

Jordan Walker is a skilled third baseman that can certainly hit the baseball.  He has a strong set of all-around tools, and he was the Cardinals’ first round draft pick in 2020.  He has not played in the minors, but he is a young player that may possess plenty of upside as a prospect for the majors.

2021 Season Projection: Not available.

2021’s Walker's Age (18/19) Season

Player’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (3 Star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starter in Rookie Ball in the St. Louis Cardinals’ Farm System

Future role: Starter in the majors

ETA: 2025

5. LHP Zack Thompson - B-

2020 (STL): Did not play.

2019 (A+): 0-0, 4.05 ERA, 13.1 IP, 10.8 H9, 0 HR9, 2.7 BB9, 12.8 K9

2019 (Rk): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 13.5 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 18 K9

2019 (NCAA): 6-1, 2.40 ERA, 90 IP, 5.9 H9, 0.3 HR9, 3.4 BB9, 13 K9

2018 (NCAA): 2-1, 4.94 ERA, 31 IP, 7 H9, 1.2 HR9, 5.8 BB9, 12.2 K9

Zack Thompson is a left-handed pitcher that has three good pitches, with his best pitch being a solid curveball that has a tight spin.  He also has an effective changeup.  He hasn’t pitched much in the minors, but he played very well in college baseball in 2019, and he’s shown that he can consistently strike hitters out at high rates.  He could project to at best be a mid-tier starting pitcher in the majors, or at least a power bullpen arm that can strike hitters out in the big leagues.

2021 Season Projections (Age 23 season):

2021 (AA): 20 GP, 20 GS, 108.2 IP, 58 ER, 4-4, 111 H, 11 HR, 54 BB, 118 K, 3.83 FIP

2021 (AAA): 8 GP, 0 GS, 8.2 IP, 5 ER, 0-1, 9 H, 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K

2021 (MLB): 8 GP, 0 GS, 7.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1-0, 1 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 

Zack Thompson’s 2021 Season Projections:

2021 (AA): 4-4, 4.80 ERA, 108.2 IP, 9.2 H9, 0.9 HR9, 4.5 BB9, 9.8 K9, 3.83 FIP

2021 (AAA): 0-1, 5.19 ERA, 9.3 H9, 1.0 HR9, 5.2 BB9, 10.4 K9, 4.12 FIP

2021 (MLB): 1-0, 6.14 ERA, 9.8 H9, 1.2 HR9, 6.1 BB9, 9.8 K9, 4.99 FIP, 0 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (23) Season

Thompson’s 2021 Rating: 1 stars (2.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting pitcher in AA in the Cardinals’ farm system

Future role: Backend starter or versatile bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2021

Matthew Liberatore will finally pitch in the St. Louis Cardinals' farm system, but did they give up too much in trading away Arozarena to get him?
(Photo: Austin Anthony/Bowling Green Daily News)

6. LHP Matthew Liberatore - B-

2020 (STL): Did not play.

2019 (A): 6-2, 3.10 ERA, 78.1 IP, 8 H9, 0.2 HR9, 3.6 BB9, 8.7 K9

2018 (Rk): 2-2, 1.38 ERA, 32.2 IP, 5.8 H9, 0 HR9, 3.6 BB9, 10.2 K9

He is a young, left-handed pitcher that was acquired in a trade that sent Randy Arozarena to the Tampa Bay Rays.  Liberatore is a former first round pick, and he is a hard thrower that is said to have good control and breaking stuff.  He’s struggled a bit with his control in A ball a bit, but he is considered to be one of the best prospects in the Cards’ organization, and is said to have potentially ace-level stuff in the future.

2021 Season Projections (Age: 21 season)

2021 (AA): 20 GP, 103 IP, 6-4, 106 H, 61 ER, 9 HR, 55 BB, 85 K

2021 (A): 5 GP, 26.2 IP, 2-1, 7 ER, 22 H, 8 BB, 0 HR, 29 K

2021 (AAA): 1 GP, 3.2 IP, 0-0, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 3 K

Matthew Liberatore’s 2021 Season Projections (Age 21 season):

2021 (A): 2-1, 2.36 ERA, 26.2 IP, 7.4 H9, 0 HR9, 2.7 BB9, 9.8 K9, 1.92 FIP

2021 (AA): 6-4. 5.33 ERA, 103 IP, 9.3 H9, 0.8 HR9, 4.8 BB9, 7.4 K9, 4.29 FIP

2021 (AAA): 0-0, 4.91 ERA, 3.2 IP, 9.8 H9, 0 HR9, 4.9 BB9, 7.4 K9, 3.20 FIP

2021’s Player’s Age (21) Season

Liberatore's 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.5 star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting pitcher in AA in the Cardinals’ farm system

Future role: Middle of the rotation starter on the St. Louis Cardinals years from now

ETA: 2022

7. C Ivan Herrera - B-

Ivan Herrera is a young catcher whose best trait is his hit tool.  He can hit for a high batting average, and he may have the patience to be able to get on base at a fairly high rate at higher levels.  On the downside, he hasn’t shown much pop in his bat at higher levels, and he struggled in the Mexican Pacific Winter League this year.  Still, his ability to hit and get on base makes him an intriguing prospect on the Cardinals’ team.

2020-21 (MXPW): .184 AVG, 0 HR, 9 RBI, .310 OBP, .204 SLG, .514 OPS, 22.4 K%,
Defense: 52 CS%

2019 (AZFL): .324 AVG, 0 HR, 6 RBI, .439 OBP, .382 SLG, .821 OPS, 9.8 K%, 
Defense: 33 CS%

2019 (A+): .276 AVG, 1 HR, 5 RBI, .338 OBP, .328 SLG, .666 OPS, 24.6 K%,
Defense: 33 CS%

2019 (A): .286 AVG, 8 HR, 42 RBI, .381 OBP, .423 SLG, .805 OPS, 19.2 K%,
Defense: 30 CS%

Ivan Herrera’s Projected 2021 season (Age 20/21 season):

2021 (A): 20 GP, 83 PA, 69 AB, 21 H, 2 HR, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 SB, 0 CS, 11 BB, 2 HBP, 1 SF, 14 K, 
Defense: 7 CS, 13 SB

2021 (AA): 100 GP, 413 PA, 366 AB, 89 H, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 7 2B, 0 3B, 36 BB, 8 HBP, 3 SF, 93 K, 1 SB, 2 CS,
Defense: 42 CS, 83 SB

2021 (AAA): 5 GP, 15 PA, 13 AB, 3 H, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 2B, 0 3B, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0 SF, 0 SB, 0 CS, 4 K,
Defense: 2 CS, 5 SB

Ivan Herrera's Projected 2021 season (Age 20/21 season):

2021 (A): .304 AVG, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB, .410 OBP, .435 SLG, .844 OPS, 16.9 K%, 35 CS%

2021 (AA): .243 AVG, 4 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, .322 OBP, .295 SLG, .617 OPS, 22.5 K%, 33.6 CS%

2021 (AAA): .231 AVG, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, .333 OBP, .231 SLG, .564 OPS, 26.7 K%, 28.6 CS%

2021’s Player’s Age (20/21) Season

Herrera’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting catcher in AA in the St. Louis Cardinals’ farm system

Future role: Starting catcher for either the St. Louis Cardinals or another team in the majors years from now

ETA: 2023

8. RHP Tink Hence - B-

2020 (HS): 0.00 ERA, 18 IP, 41 K, 4 BB, 2 BB9, 20.5 K9

2019 (HS): 0.64 ERA, 43.2 IP, 61 K, 12.6 K/9

Link: https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/hard-throwing-in-state-rhp-selected-in-2020-mlb-draft

He is a young pitcher that throws hard, and he has two very good pitches, as he has a solid fastball and a curveball.  Hence also is said to have good control and command of his pitches, but he will need to develop more of a repertoire in his arsenal.

2021 Season Projection: N/A

2021’s Player’s Age (18/19) Season

Hence’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting pitcher in Rookie-ball in the minors

Future role: Backend starter or versatile bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2025

9. RHP Angel Rondon - C+

2020-21 (MXPW): 0-1, 3.29 ERA, 13.2 IP, 9.9 H9, 0.7 HR9, 4.6 BB9, 7.2 K9

2019 (AA): 6-6, 3.21 ERA, 115 IP, 7.7 H9, 0.9 HR9, 3.3 BB9, 8.8 K9

2019 (A+): 5-1, 2.20 ERA, 45 IP, 5.2 H9, 0.6 HR9, 3.4 BB9, 9.4 K9

Angel Rondon is a young pitcher that pitched well in AA in 2019, and he has three solid pitches.  He has a good fastball and a curveball, and a reliable changeup offering.  He will need to improve his control and command, but he could fit into any role in the majors if he continues to progress as expected.

Projected 2021 season (age 23 season):

2021 (AAA): 26 GP, 26 GS, 5-8, 141 IP, 69 ER, 142 H, 21 HR, 69 BB, 116 K, 4.96 FIP

2021 (MLB): 5 GP, 0 GS, 0-0, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 5.35 FIP

Angel Rondon’s Projected 2021 season (age 23 season):

2021 (AAA): 5-8, 4.40 ERA, 141 IP, 9.1 H9, 1.3 HR9, 4.4 BB9, 7.4 K9, 4.96 FIP

2021 (MLB): 0-0, 4.50 ERA, 6 IP, 9.0 H9, 1.5 HR9, 4.5 BB9, 7.5 K9, 5.35 FIP, 0 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (23) Season

Angel Rondon’s 2021 Rating: 1.0 stars (2.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role:  Starting Pitcher in AAA in the Cardinals’ farm system

Future role: Backend starter in the majors or versatile bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2021

Johan Oviedo had a respectable 2020 season during his time up in the majors, yet he still counts as a rookie yet again for the upcoming season.  However, he didn't pitch well in AA in 2019.  The question about Oviedo in 2021 is whether or not if he's poised for more innings in the majors, or if his 2020 season performance was perhaps a fluke.
(Photo: Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports)

10. RHP Johan Oviedo - C+

2020 (STL/MLB): 0-3, 5.47 ERA, 24.2 IP, 8.8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 3.6 BB9, 5.8 K9, 5.30 FIP, 0.1 WAR

2019 (AA): 7-8, 5.65 ERA, 113 IP, 9.6 H9, 0.7 HR9, 5.1 BB9, 10.2 K9

2019 (A+): 5-0, 1.60 ERA, 33.2 IP, 7.8 H9, 0.3 HR9, 3.2 BB9, 9.4 K9

Johan Oviedo is a tall, right-handed pitcher that reached the majors in the shortened 2020 season, and he consistently throws in the mid-90s.  His best pitch is that he throws a heavy slider and he gets good spin on it that can fool hitters.  On the downside, he will need to improve his control and command.  He has enough talent to reach the majors and potentially be an effective pitcher there this season, but he will need to find a way to put his skills all together to reach his full potential.

Projected 2021 season (age 23 season):

2021 (AA): 1 GP, 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1-0, 2 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 6 K

2021 (AAA): 26 GP, 26 GS, 128 IP, 76 ER, 6-10, 130 H, 15 HR, 63 BB, 124 K, 4.26 FIP 

2021 (MLB): 5 GP, 1 GS, 7.1 IP, 4 ER, 0-1, 7 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 6 K

Johan Oviedo’s Projected 2021 season (age 23 season):

2021 (AA): 1-0, 3.38 ERA, 5.1 IP, 8.4 H9, 0 HR9, 3.4 BB9, 10.1 K9, 2.07 FIP

2021 (AAA): 6-10, 5.34 ERA, 128 IP, 9.1 H9, 1.1 HR9, 4.4 BB9, 8.7 K9, 4.26 FIP

2021 (MLB): 0-1, 4.91 ERA, 8.6 H9, 1.2 HR9, 4.9 BB9, 7.4 K9, 5.57 FIP, 0.0 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (23) Season

Player’s 2021 Rating: 1 stars (2.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting pitcher in AAA in the Cardinals’ farm system

Future role: Backend starter or versatile bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2021

Edwin Nunez is a talented prospect who has yet to pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals.  They say he can throw up to 100 miles per hour, which sounds like a Paul Bunyan-esque tall tale, but Nunez's upside could be even higher if he can quickly climb up the minors.
(Photo: Laurie Skrivan/St. Louis Post Dispatch)

11. RHP Edwin Nunez - C+

He’s received rave reviews by Prospects 1500, and he’s said that he can throw up to 100 MPH.  He also has a curveball, but he has yet to pitch in the minors.

2021 Season Projection: N/A

2021’s Player’s Age (19) Season

Player’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starter in rookie-ball

Future role: Bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2025

Junior Fernandez quickly climbed up the minors as he pitched very well there in 2019, but he hasn't quite translated that into major-league production yet.  Time will tell if he'll pitch in the majors this season or in 2022.
(Photo: Jay Biggerstaff/USA Today Sports)

12. RHP Junior Fernandez - C

2020 (STL/MLB): 0-0, 18.00 ERA, 3 IP, 18 H9, 3 HR9, 6 BB9, 6 K9, 8.19 FIP, -0.1 WAR

2019 (STL/MLB): 0-1, 5.40 ERA, 11.2 IP, 6.9 H9, 1.5 HR9, 4.6 BB9, 12.3 K9, 5.27 FIP, -0.1 WAR

2019 (AAA): 2-1, 1.48 ERA, 24.1 IP, 6.3 H9, 0 HR9, 4.1 BB9, 10 K9

2019 (AA): 1-1, 1.55 ERA, 29 IP, 5.6 H9, 0 HR9, 3.4 BB9, 13 K9

2019 (A+): 0-0, 1.54 ERA, 11.2 IP, 6.2 H9, 0 HR9, 6.2 BB9, 8.5 K9

Projected 2021 season:

2021 (AAA): 38 GP, 3-2, 1.66 ERA, 54.1 IP, 10 ER, 40 H, 2 HR, 23 BB, 68 K, 7 SV, 2.45 FIP

2021 (MLB): 20 GP, 1-1, 21.2 IP, 11 ER, 0 SV, 20 H, 3 HR, 12 BB, 27 K, 5.00 FIP

Junior Fernandez's Projected 2021 season (Age 24 season):

2021 (AAA): 3-2, 1.66 ERA, 7 SV, 54.1 IP, 6.6 H9, 0.3 HR9, 3.8 BB9, 11.3 K9, 2.45 FIP

2021 (MLB): 1-1, 4.57 ERA, 21.2 IP, 8.3 H9, 1.2 HR9, 5.0 BB9, 11.2 K9, 5.00 FIP, 0.1 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (24) Season

Fernandez’s 2021 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Vacillate between AAA and the majors as a bullpen arm

Future role: Bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2021

Edmundo Sosa has consistently put up solid numbers in the minors, but he hasn't gotten much run in the majors, and he didn't end up getting any time up in the big leagues in 2020.  It's uncertain when he'll be able to be a full-time major league player, or if the Cardinals will be the team to give him that playing time, but Sosa is talented infielder that can hit.
(Photo: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports)

13. SS Edmundo Sosa - C

2020 (STL/MLB): Did not play.

2019 (STL/MLB): .250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 SB, .450 OBP, .250 SLG, .650 OPS, 20.0 K%, 0 WAR

2019 (AAA): .291 AVG, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 2 SB, .335 OBP, .466 SLG, .801 OPS, 19.4 K%

2018 (STL/MLB): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .333 OBP, .000 SLG, .333 OPS, 33.3 K%, 0 WAR

2018 (AAA): .262 AVG, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 5 SB, .321 OBP, .408 SLG, .729 OPS, 20.1 K%

2018 (AA): .276 AVG, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 1 SB, .308 OBP, .429 SLG, .737 OPS, 18.7 K%

Edmundo Sosa is an offensive-minded infielder that has hit well in the minors, but he hasn’t played much in the majors because he’s been blocked by other players in front of him.  It’s not certain if he will find much playing time in the big leagues this year or make the opening day, but he is a good player to have in the organization, as he will be ready to play if the Cardinals need him this season.

Projected 2021 season

2021 (AAA): 100 GP, 404 PA, 368 AB, 115 H, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 20 2B, 4 3B, 22 BB, 10 HBP, 4 SF, 72 K, 5 SB, 3 CS

2021 (MLB): 40 GP, 77 PA, 68 AB, 17 H, 2 HR, 2 2B, 1 3B, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 1 SF, 1 SB, 1 CS, 16 K

Edmundo Sosa's Projected 2021 season (Age 25 season):

2021 (AAA): .313 AVG, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 5 SB, .364 OBP, .519 SLG, .883 OPS, 17.8 K%

2021 (MLB): .250 AVG, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, .325 OBP, .397 OBP, .722 OPS, 20.8 K%, 0.3 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (25) Season

Sosa’s 2021 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting shortstop or second baseman in AAA

Future role: Backup infielder in the majors

ETA: 2021

Kodi Whitley opened the season on the Major League roster and pitched well in his brief time up, but injuries and COVID sidelined him in 2020, and he will need to continue to pitch well to secure a spot on the Major League roster in 2021.
(Photo: David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch)

14. RHP Kodi Whitley - C

2020 (STL/MLB): 0-0, 1.93 ERA, 4.2 IP, 3.9 H9, 1.9 HR9, 1.9 BB9, 9.6 K9, 4.48 FIP, 0 WAR

2019 (AAA): 2-0, 1.52 ERA, 23.2 IP, 8 H9, 0 HR9, 1.5 BB9, 10.3 K9

2019 (AA): 1-4, 1.83 ERA, 39.1 IP, 7.1 H9, 0.7 HR9, 3 BB9, 10.5 K9

2019 (AZFL): 0-1, 2.45 ERA, 11 IP, 6.5 H9, 0.8 HR9, 0.8 BB9, 10.6 K9

Kodi Whitley is a bullpen pitcher that briefly pitched in the majors, but he ended up missing a considerable portion of the season due to COVID.  He has three solid pitches, as he has an above average fastball, changeup, and a useful slider pitch that can enable him to get outs.  He’ll have a chance to make the opening day roster once again, and he could be an effective bullpen pitcher on the Cardinals’ team this season.

Projected 2021 Season (Age 26 season):

2021 (AAA): 25 GP, 2-2, 33.2 IP, 7 ER, 30 H, 3 HR, 9 BB, 40 K, 5 SV

2021 (MLB): 20 GP, 1-1, 24 IP, 8 ER, 20 H, 4 HR, 7 BB, 26 K

Kodi Whitley's Projected 2021 Season (Age 26 season):

2021 (AAA): 2-2, 1.87 ERA, 5 SV, 33.2 IP, 8 H9, 0.8 HR9, 2.4 BB9, 10.7 K9

2021 (MLB): 1-1, 3.00 ERA, 24 IP, 7.5 H9, 1.5 HR9, 2.6 BB9, 9.8 K9, 4.07 FIP, 0.1 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (26) Season

Whitley’s 2021 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Vacillate between AAA and the majors as a bullpen arm

Future role: Bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2021

15. OF Justin Williams - C

2020 (MLB): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .333 OBP, .200 SLG, .533 OPS, 33.3 K%

2019 (AAA): .353 AVG, 7 HR, 26 RBI, .437 OBP, .608 SLG, 1.045 OPS, 25.2 K%

2019 (AA): .193 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, .246 OBP, .263 SLG, .509 OPS, 27.9 K%

2018 (AAA): .252 AVG, 11 HR, 57 RBI, 4 SB, .307 OBP, .379 SLG, .685 OPS, 21.2 K%

2018 (MLB): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .000 OPS, 0 K%

Justin Williams had been acquired when the Cardinals dealt Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay.  Williams hasn't quite panned out as well as expected, but he's shown that he can hit AAA pitching by now.  While he hasn't played well in the majors yet, his strong season in AAA in 2019 may suggest that he could be worthy of being a full-time regular in the majors either this season or the next.

Projected 2021 season (Age 25/26 season):

2021 (AAA): 100 GP, 385 PA, 341 AB, 97 H, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 14 2B, 1 3B, 39 BB, 3 HBP, 2 SF, 4 SB, 3 CS, 82 K

2021 (MLB): 15 GP, 29 PA, 25 AB, 6 H, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 2B, 0 3B, 4 BB, 0 HBP, 0 SF, 0 SB, 0 CS, 7 K

Justin Williams' Projected 2021 season:

2021 (AAA): .284 AVG, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 4 SB, .361 OBP, .437 SLG, .798 OPS, 21.3 K%

2021 (MLB): .240 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .345 OBP, .280 SLG, .625 OPS, 24.1 K%, 0 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (25/26) Season

Williams' 2021 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Vacillate between AAA and the majors

Future role: Bench outfielder in the majors

ETA: 2021

16. RHP Seth Elledge - C

2020 (MLB): 1-0, 4.63 ERA, 8.5 H9, 1.5 HR9, 6.2 BB9, 10.8 K9, 5.33 FIP, 0 WAR

2019 (AAA): 3-1, 4.72 ERA, 7.3 H9, 0.8 HR9, 5.0 BB9, 8.4 K9

2019 (AA): 3-3, 3.78 ERA, 9.2 H9, 0.8 HR9, 3.5 BB9, 11.6 K9

Seth Elledge had reached the majors in 2020, and he could be a bullpen arm in the majors this season in 2021.

Projected 2021 season stats (age 24/25 season):

2021 (AAA): 25 GP, 2-2, 35.2 IP, 16 ER, 30 H, 3 HR, 17 BB, 39 K

2021 (MLB): 20 GP, 1-1, 24.2 IP, 12 ER, 23 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 28 K

Projected 2021 season stats (age 24/25 season):

2021 (AAA): 2-2, 4.04 ERA, 35.2 IP, 7.6 H9, 0.8 HR9, 4.3 BB9, 9.8 K9, 3.54 FIP

2021 (MLB): 1-1, 4.38 ERA, 24.2 IP, 8.4 H9, 1.1 HR9, 5.1 BB9, 10.2 K9, 4.46 FIP, 0.1 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (24/25) Season

Elledge’s 2021 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Vacillate between AAA and the majors as a bullpen arm

Future role: Bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2021

Ali Sanchez hit the ball well in AA, and scouts have rated his glove well, but he struggled to hit the ball in AAA or the majors, and he hasn't shown much pop in his bat at all at the higher levels.
(Photo: Ed Delany/MMO)

17. C Ali Sanchez – C

2020 (NYM/MLB): .111 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .200 OBP, .111 SLG, .311 OPS, 30 K%, -0.1 WAR, Defense: 0 CS%

2019 (AAA): .179 AVG, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .277 OBP, .250 SLG, .527 OPS, 16.9 K%,
Defense: 63 CS%

2019 (AA): .278 AVG, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, .337 OBP, .337 SLG, .674 OPS, 17.7 K%,
Defense: 42 CS%

Ali Sanchez is a defensive minded catcher that reached the majors briefly in 2020.  He hit well in AA in 2019, but struggled to hit well at higher levels beyond that.  He also doesn’t run well nor have much pop in his bat.  He could contend to for a backup catcher job in the majors sometime in the future, and he could be a prospect to watch this season.

Projected 2021 season:

2021 (AAA): 100 GP, 362 PA, 318 AB, 77 H, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 18 2B, 0 3B, 33 BB, 8 HBP, 3 SF, 1 SB, 2 CS, 74 K,
Defense: 36 CS, 51 SB

2021 (MLB): 10 GP, 23 PA, 21 AB, 5 H, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 0 3B, 2 BB, 0 HBP, 0 SF, 0 SB, 0 CS, 6 K,
Defense: 3 CS, 7 SB

Ali Sanchez's Projected 2021 season:

2021 (AAA): .242 AVG, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 1 SB, .326 OBP, .355 SLG, .681 OPS, 20.4 K%, 41.4 CS%

2021 (MLB): .238 AVG, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, .304 OBP, .286 SLG, .590 OPS, 26.1 K%, 0 WAR, 30 CS%, 0.1 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (24) Season

Player’s 2021 Rating: 1 star (2 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting catcher in AAA

Future role: Backup catcher in the majors

ETA: 2021

Johan Quezada is a recently acquired prospect from the Philadelphia Phillies.  He hasn't pitched much in the majors, and he made a considerable leap to get there, but he is a tall pitcher at 6-9, 255 pounds, and he at the least could provide an intimidating presence on the mound.

(Photo: Jasen Vinlove/USA Today Sports)

18. P Johan Quezada - C

2020 (MIA/MLB): 0-0, 9.00 ERA, 3 IP, 12 H9, 3 HR9, 3 BB9, 6 K9, 7.19 FIP, -0.1 WAR

2019 (A+): 7-2, 3.44 ERA, 33 GP, 52.1 IP, 8.5 H9, 0.3 HR9, 4.8 BB9, 8.4 K9

2018 (A): 1-1, 0.93 ERA, 9.2 IP, 6.5 H9, 0 HR9, 1.9 BB9, 9.3 K9

He is a bullpen arm that briefly reached the majors, but has struggled with his control and command.  He is a very tall pitcher, as he is listed at 6-9, 255 pounds.

Projected 2021 season:
2021 (AAA): 45 GP, 54.2 IP, 32 ER, 65 H, 8 HR, 26 BB, 47 K
2021 (MLB):10 GP, 10.1 IP, 8 ER, 13 H, 2 HR, 5 BB, 9 K

Johan Quezada's Projected 2021 season:

2021 (AAA): 7-5, 5.27 ERA, 54.2 IP, 10.7 H9, 1.3 HR9, 4.3 BB9, 7.7 K9, 4.81 FIP
2021 (MLB): 0-0, 6.97 ERA, 10.1 IP, 11.3 H9, 1.7 HR9, 4.4 BB9, 7.8 K9, 5.45 FIP, -0.1 WAR

2021’s Player’s Age (26/27) Season

Quezada’s 2021 Rating: 1 star (2 star potential) 

Expected 2021 role: Bullpen arm in AAA, maybe reach the majors as a September call-up

Future role: Bullpen arm in the majors

ETA: 2021

19. OF Trejyn Fletcher - C

2020 (STL): Did not play.

2019 (RK): .244 AVG, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 7 SB, .291 OBP, .375 SLG, .666 OPS, 43.4 K%

He is an athletic, toolsy outfielder that can run and hit for power, but he did not hit well in rookie ball, and he struck out too much in 2019.

2021’s Player’s Age (19/20) Season

Projected 2021 season:

2021 (Rk): 100 GP, 407 PA, 368 AB, 100 H, 14 HR, 86 RBI, 21 2B, 4 3B, 30 BB, 2 HBP, 7 SF, 18 SB, 2 CS, 147 K
2021 (A): 30 GP, 122 PA, 111 AB, 26 H, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 5 2B, 1 3B, 8 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SF, 5 SB, 1 CS, 54 K

Trejyn Fletcher's Projected 2021 season (Age 19/20 season):
2021 (Rk): .272 AVG, 14 HR, 86 RBI, 18 SB, .324 OBP, .465 SLG, .789 OPS, 36.1 K%
2021 (A): .234 AVG, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 5 SB, .287 OBP, .378 SLG, .665 OPS, 44.3 K%

Fletcher’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2 stars potential)
Expected 2021 role: Starter in Rookie-ball in the minors
Future role: 3rd or 4th outfielder in the majors
ETA: 2025

20. OF Jhon Torres - C

2020 (STL): Did not play.

2019 (A): .167 AVG, 0 HR, 8 RBI, .240 OBP, .212 SLG, .452 OPS, 38.7 K%

2019 (Rk): .286 AVG, 6 HR, 17 RBI, .391 OBP, .527 SLG, .918 OPS, 27.1 K%

2018 (RK): .321 AVG, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, .409 OBP, .525, .933 OPS, 19.9 K%

Jhon Torres is a hitter that scouts like for his ability to hit and for power, and he also has a solid throwing arm.  On the downside, he’s not a great fielder or runner.  Unfortunately, he has not hit well above rookie-ball, and he really struggled in A-ball in 2019.  He’ll need to show more of his hit tools at higher levels, or he could end up getting passed up as a prospect in the Cardinals’ organization.

Torres’ Projected 2021 season (Age: 21 season)

2021 (A): 100 GP, 409 PA, 357 AB, 82 H, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 17 2B, 4 3B, 42 BB, 7 HBP, 3 SF, 4 SB, 5 CS, 116 K

2021 (AA): 20 GP, 82 PA, 74 AB, 14 H, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 2 2B, 0 3B, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SF, 0 SB, 1 CS, 29 K

Torres’ Projected 2021 season (Age: 21 season)

2021 (A): .230 AVG, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 4 SB, .320 OBP, .359 SLG, .679 OPS, 28.4 K%

2021 (AA): .189 AVG, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, .256 OBP, .257 SLG, .513 OPS, 35.4 K%

2021’s Player’s Age (21) Season

Torres' 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.0 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting outfielder in A-ball in the minors

Future role: 3rd or 4th outfielder in the majors

ETA: 2025

Honorable Mention: 1B/3B Malcolm Nunez, RHP Ian Bedell, 1B John Nogowski, RHP Andre Pallante, 1B Luken Baker.

Side notes: 

Elehuris Montero would've been slotted as the 9th best prospect in the Cardinals' organization by my rankings had he not been traded to Colorado, and neither Tony Locey, Mateo Gil, nor Jake Sommers would've made the top 20 list.

4/3/21 Update: 

Delvin Perez was crushing the baseball in the Spring, as he was tearing the covers off the baseball, so now he would be the 12th best prospect in the Cardinals' organization.

12. SS Delvin Perez - C+

2021 (Spring Training): .286 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, .286 OBP, .714 SLG, 1.000 OPS, 0 BB%, 43 K%
2020 (MLB): Did not play.
2019 (A): .269 AVG, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 22 SB, .329 OBP, .325 SLG, .654 OPS, 5.3 BB%, 23.1 K%

Basically, Delvin Perez has really increased his hitting power, and he's always been a solid runner and fielder.  He hit for a decent average in A-ball in 2019, and he's hit well in the spring, but his low walk rates and high strikeout rates are alarming.

Still, his strong spring may now make him a solid prospect, and a good season could catapult him up the prospect list in 2022.

Perez's Projected 2021 season (Age: 22 season)

2021 (AA): 110 GP, 467 PA, 433 AB, 102 H, 14 2B, 8 3B, 9 HR, 77 RBI, 150 K, 24 BB, 8 HBP, (4 SH), 2 SF, 11 SB, 9 CS

2021 (AAA): 15 GP, 50 PA, 47 AB, 13 H, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 16 K, 1 HBP, 0 SF, 2 SB, 0 CS
2021 (MLB): 9 GP, 25 PA, 23 AB, 5 H, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 8 K, 0 SF, 1 SB, 0 CS

Delvin Perez’s Projected Age (22) Season:

2021 (AA): .236 AVG, 9 HR, 77 RBI, 11 SB, .287 OBP, .367 SLG, .654 OPS, 5.1 BB%. 32.1 K%
2021 (AAA): .277 AVG, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, .320 OBP, .426 SLG, .746 OPS, 4.0 BB%, 32 K%
2021 (MLB): .217 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SB, .280 OBP, .261 SLG, .541 OPS, 4.0 BB%, 32 K%

2021’s Player’s Age (22) Season

Player’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting shortstop in AA-ball in the minors

Future role: Average starting infielder/above average utility player in the majors

ETA: 2021

Thanks for reading, and this has been fun.

Grading the Nolan Arenado Trade (Hint: It's a Big Win for the Cardinals!)

 Recently, the St. Louis Cardinals made a blockbuster trade with the Colorado Rockies to acquire superstar third baseman, Nolan Arenado. Understandably, a lot of people on the Cardinals side are extremely happy, and a lot of people on the Rockies’ end are upset, with neutral baseball fans being baffled at the totality of this trade being made, especially on Colorado’s end.  The Cardinals traded away Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, and three other minor-leaguers, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, and Jake Sommers, which at first glance is a very small price to pay to get Arenado, and the baseball world was in shock that the Cardinals didn’t have to give up an elite prospect to get Arenado.  

Or did they give up an elite prospect without knowing?  This is why I’m here, to help you break down this trade.  Off we go! (Questions about the 2021 rating scale are answered at the bottom of this article.*)

Anyways, off to the analysis!

Nolan Arenado is a superstar third baseman that was a tremendous player for the Colorado Rockies, and the St. Louis Cardinals will eagerly await his arrival for the 2021 season.

(Photo: Viva El Birdos)

The St. Louis Cardinals get:

3B Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado has long been considered one of the premier players at his position for many years now, as he’s been considered the gold standard, the mark of consistency of having a strong bat and glove that makes him a very good player yearly.  Of course, naysayers will point to the other fact that he played in Colorado, which notoriously is played in a hitters’ ballpark.  Therefore, it will be important to demonstrate how well he played on the road, which would be other places that were his home ballpark.

Here are Nolan Arenado’s past three regular seasons (Fangraphs' WAR is used instead):

2020 (COL): .253 AVG, 8 HR, 26 RBI, .303 OBP, .434 SLG, .738 OPS, 10 K%, 0.9 WAR, Gold Glove winner

2019 (COL): .315 AVG, 41 HR, 118 RBI, .379 OBP, .583 SLG, .962 OPS, 14 K%, 6 WAR, All-Star, Gold Glove winner

2018 (COL): .297 AVG, 38 HR, 110 RBI, .374 OBP, .561 SLG, .935 OPS, 18.1 K%, 5.8 WAR, All-Star, Gold Glove winner, Silver Slugger winner

Here are Arenado’s career home and road splits:

Home (Career, or Coors Field): .322 AVG, 136 HR, 461 RBI, .376 OBP, .609 SLG, .985 OPS, 13.7 K%

Road (Everywhere Else): .263 AVG, 99 HR, 299 RBI, .322 OBP, .471 SLG, .793 OPS, 16.3 K%

Here is how well he’s played at Busch Stadium in his career:

(at STL): .98 PA, 278 AVG, 5 HR, 17 RBI, .337 OBP, .511 SLG, .848 OPS, 17.3 K%

Here are the postseasons (or playoffs, rather) that he’s showed up in from 2018-2020 (if you're a Cardinals' fan, you might want to skip this section, and go right to my 2021 season projections for him):

2020 (COL): Team didn’t make the playoffs

2019 (COL): Team didn’t make the playoffs

2018 (COL/postseason): .188 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .167 OBP, .188 SLG, .354 OPS 

So with all of the facts presented, Nolan Arenado has perennially been a top player at the third base position, but he struggled in a shortened 2020 season.  He’s been a terrific player at Coors Field, and he’s been solid, but not outstanding elsewhere.  He’s only played in two postseasons in 2017 and 2018, but he has not played well in the playoffs, yet, so it’s not certain if he can be relied heavily in crunch time or in the clutch.  

As for the playoffs, well....at least Arenado has a higher playoff batting average than Mike Trout?  (Mike Trout has only been in one playoff series during his career, and Trout is 1 for 12 in the playoffs, as Trout is a career .083 hitter in the postseason, with his only hit being a home run.)  Also, unlike Mike Trout, Arenado has won at least one playoff game.  (Sorry, just had to throw in that dig at Trout.  Anyways, carry on.)

Either way, Nolan Arenado is going to be a big factor in the Cardinals’ lineup.  Given the Cardinals’ hitting coach, Jeff Albert’s current track record, what may be expected may be for Arenado’s batting average to not be as good as expected, but to see a rise in his walks, home runs, but also in strikeouts when he’ll be at the plate in 2021.

Nolan Arenado is going to be on the St. Louis Cardinals for the 2021 MLB season!

(Photo: Clutch Points)

Here are my projected statistics for Nolan Arenado’s 2021 season:

Arenado's projected 2021 regular season:

2021 (STL): 654 PA, 561 AB, 158 H, 28 HR, 94 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS, 28 2B, 0 3B, 82 BB, 93 K, 14.2 K%, 2 HBP, 11 SF

Nolan Arenado’s projected 2021 season (age 29/30 season): 

.282 AVG, 28 HR, 94 RBI, .370 OBP, .481 SLG%, .851 OPS, 14.2 K%, 4.6 WAR, Gold Glove

My projection is that, while he’s expected to experience a dip in his offensive statistics due to being away from Coors Field, he is still a good hitter regardless, and his strong glove will still make him an All-Star caliber player, and one of the best players at his position in 2021.  

Also, Arenado is a disciplined hitter as he rarely strikes out, and his strong ability to make contact should help him on offense even if he doesn’t quite reach the power numbers that he’s posted when he was at Colorado.  In 2021, I project that he might not necessarily make the All-Star team, but his impact will be as if he’ll make one, and I also project him to win the Gold Glove at third baseman for the Cardinals.

Nolan Arenado’s Projected 2021 Rating: 4 stars

Projected 2021 Role: Starting Third Basemen of the St. Louis Cardinals, future 2021 Gold Glove winner

Future Role: Starting Third Basemen of the St. Louis Cardinals, maybe make some All-Star teams, win some Gold Gloves, and hopefully get the Cardinals some World Series championships

The Colorado Rockies Get:

Here are the players that the Colorado Rockies received in this trade:

Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, and Jake Sommers.

Austin Gomber is a versatile pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen in the majors.
(Photo: Roy Chenoy/USA Today Sports, via SB Nation's Minor League Ball)

LHP Austin Gomber

He is a tall, young left-handed pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen, and he is a hard thrower whose versatility can make him a fairly solid addition to their team.  Gomber was rated as a upper mid-tier organizational prospect when he was in the Cardinals’ farm system.  He might not have ace level stuff, but he’s easily the most important piece for the Rockies, at least in the short term.  Gomber’s long-term future could be either as a solid, multi-inning bullpen arm, or as a back end rotation starter if they decide to deploy him as a starting pitcher.

Here is what Gomber did in his past 2 Major League seasons:

2020 (STL): 1-1, 1.86 ERA, 14 GP, 4 GS, 29 IP, 5.9 H9, 0.3 HR9, 4.7 BB9, 8.4 K9, 3.54 FIP, 0.5 WAR 

2019 (STL): 6-2, 4.44 ERA, 29 GP, 11 GS, 75 IP, 9.7 H9, 0.8 HR9, 3.8 BB9, 8 K9, 4.03 FIP, 0.8 WAR

Gomber hasn’t pitched very much in Coors Field, and his lone appearance in Colorado was a win where he pitched 6 innings and allowed one run, so I don’t anticipate being able to project park factors into how well he’ll pitch during the 2021 season, so I’ll just go off of what he’s done previously in the majors.  Interestingly enough, the splits suggest he's pitched considerably better as a starter than as a relief pitcher.  He's not expected to be an innings eater if he's a full-time starter, but he does have the stuff to capably fill out a role either as a starter or bullpen pitcher this year.

Here is what Gomber has done in the postseason:

2020 Postseason (STL): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.1 IP, 13.5 H9, 0 HR9, 6.8 BB9, 13.5 K9

Since the Rockies are not expected to contend this year, and Gomber has been a solid pitcher in his role for the Cardinals, he’s expected to compete for a starting spot, and I think he could win a spot in their rotation.

Here is my 2021 season projections for Austin Gomber:

Austin Gomber, 2021 season projections:

2021 (COL): 32 GP, 155 IP, 169 H, 69 ER, 12 HR, 57 BB, 153 K, 1.847 WAR

Austin Gomber’s Projected 2021 season (age 27 season):

2021 (COL): 11-13, 4.01 ERA, 155 IP, 9.8 H9, 0.7 HR9, 3.3 BB9, 8.9 K9, 3.49 FIP, 1.8 WAR

Based on looking at Gomber’s statistics and splits, he may stand a lot to gain if he can make Colorado’s starting rotation, and if his solid home and road splits holds up in his move to Colorado.  He is a four-pitch pitcher, as he throws an above average fastball, a heavy slider, and he also throws a curveball and a changeup.  In looking at his pitching metrics on Fangraphs, it suggests that his fastball is his best pitch, and his breaking stuff is not nearly as good.  Therefore, it’s expected that he will likely experience some drop off in his move to Colorado.  Theoretically, the drop-off could be significant, but that hasn’t shown up in his statistics yet.

If Gomber plays up to his expectations as Colorado’s centerpiece on their end of this deal, this would be a decent acquisition, as he could capably be a middle of the rotation starter on their team.

Austin Gomber’s Projected 2021 Rating: 2.5 stars

Projected 2021 Role: Middle of the Rotation Starting Pitcher on the Colorado Rockies

Future Role: Middle of the Rotation Starting Pitcher on the Colorado Rockies

Elehuris Montero was once a highly regarded prospect, but his progress has stalled a bit in the high minors.

(Photo: Bryan Green/Flickr, via Prospects 1500)

3B Elehuris Montero

Prospect Rankings: Baseball America rated him as the 81st best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2019 season.  Here is what he has done in the past three seasons.

2020 (STL): Did not play.

2019 (AA): .188 AVG, 7 HR, 18 RBI, .235 OBP, .317 SLG, .552 OPS

2019 (AZFL): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .333 OBP, .300 SLG, .633 OPS

2018 (A+): .286 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI, .330 OBP, .408 SLG, .738 OPS

2018 (A): .322 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI, .381 OBP, .529 SLG, .910 OPS

Elehuris Montero was once a rising prospect in the Cardinals’ farm system, as he is a corner infielder that showed the ability to hit, and for power, but he has since struggled in the high minors, and his progress has stalled at higher levels.  He hasn’t played up to his potential recently, and so his prospect shine has worn off.

 With uncertainty regarding the length of minor-league baseball, I’ll project minor leaguers to have a full season.

Here are my projections for Elehuris Montero in 2021:

2021 (AA): 508 PA, 460 AB, 112 H, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 30 2B, 3 3B, 40 BB, 139 K, 5 HBP, 3 SF

2021 (AAA): 20 PA, 19 AB, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 SB, 0 CS, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HBP, 0 SF

2021 (MLB): 10 PA, 2 H, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 SB, 0 CS, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP, 0 SF

Elehuris Montero’s 2021 season projections – (age 22/23 season):

2021 (AA): .243 AVG, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, .309 OBP, .420 SLG, .729 OPS, 27.4 K%

2021 (AAA): .211 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, .250 OBP, .421 SLG, .671 OPS, 30.0 K%

2021 (MLB): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .273 OBP, .200 SLG, .473 OPS, 40.0 K%, 0 WAR

Elehuris Montero’s struggles at the higher minors suggests that he might not likely hit for a high batting average this year, as his placement suggests that he will likely start out at AA, but he has enough tools to hit for power and to advance if he can hit well enough at that level.  If he can play well in the minors, there is still time for him to advance and carve out a major-league career at some point in the future.

Elehuris Montero’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.5 star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting third baseman in AA in the Colorado Rockies’ farm system

Future role: Starting third baseman of a major league team, with his hit power as his strongest trait

RHP Tony Locey

Tony Locey is a former 3rd round pick that was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2019 MLB Draft.  He was a star pitcher at Georgia in college baseball, but so far, his collegiate success has not quite translated to the minors yet.

Here is what he has done in the past couple of seasons:

2019 (A): 1-2, 6.00 ERA, 10 GP, 15 IP, 9 H9, 0.6 HR9, 6.0 BB9, 16.8 K9

2018 (NCAA): 11-2, 2.53 ERA, 16 GP, 89 IP, 5.2 H9, 0.8 HR9, 4.6 BB9, 9.8 K9

Here is his projected 2021 season:

2021 (A): 20 GP, 20 GS, 7-7, 108.2 IP, 55 ER, 108 H, 11 HR, 60 BB, 124 K

2021 (AA): 5 GP, 5 GS, 1-2, 13 ER. 22.1 IP, 23 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 21 K

Here is Tony Locey’s projected 2021 season (age 22/23 season):

2021 (A): 7-7, 4.56 ERA, 108.2 IP, 8.9 H9, 0.9 HR9, 5.0 BB9, 10.3 K9, 3.89 FIP

2-21 (AA): 1-2, 5.24 ERA, 22.1 IP, 9.3 H9, 1.2 HR9, 5.6 BB9, 8.5 K9, 4.95 FIP

Tony Locey’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2 star potential)

Expected 2021 role: Starting Pitcher in A-ball in the Colorado Rockies’ low minors

Future role: Bullpen arm in the majors or back end starting pitcher in the majors

SS/3B Mateo Gil

Mateo Gil is a former 3rd round pick that was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2018 MLB Draft.  He has not played a whole lot of baseball, nor much at the high minors.  In high school, he was known for his hitting, extra-base ability, and base-stealing ability.  Recently, he’s played in the Mexican Pacific Winter League, which may be the equivalent of the independent leagues.  

Here is what he has done in the past several seasons.

2019 (Rk): .270 AVG, 7 HR, 30 RBI, .324 OBP, .431 SLG, .756 OPS, 24.9 K%

2019 (A+): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .000 OBP, .000 SLG, .000 OPS, 33.3 K%

Here is his projected 2021 season:

2021 (A):  327 PA, 301 AB, 71 H, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 14 2B, 1 3B, 9 SB, 4 CS, 93 K, 21 BB, 3 HBP, 2 SF

2021 (AA): 99 PA, 92 AB, 19 H, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 2B, 0 3B, 3 SB, 1 CS, 34K, 5 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SF

Here is Mateo Gil’s projected 2021 season (age 20/21 season):

2021 (A): .236 AVG, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .291 OBP, 369 SLG, .659 OPS, 28.4 K%

2021 (AA): .207 AVG, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, .253 OBP, .272 SLG, .524 OPS, 34.3 K%

Link: https://www.mlb.com/news/mateo-gil-follows-father-into-pro-baseball-c280194754

Mateo Gil’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2 star potential) 

Expected Role: Starting Infielder in A-ball in the Colorado Rockies’ low minors

Future Role: At best, backup utility infielder in the majors

RHP Jake Sommers

He was a former 10th round draft pick that was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2019 MLB Draft.  He played college baseball at UW-Milwaukee.  It is noted that he was a bullpen pitcher in his senior season when he was drafted, and he was converted to being a starting pitcher in rookie ball in 2019.

Here is what he has done previously.

2019 (Rk): 2-3, 4.18 ERA, 12 GP, 51.2 IP, 8.9 H9, 1.2 HR9, 3.3 BB9, 9.6 K9

2019 (NCAA): 2-2, 3.60 ERA, 23 GP, 30 IP, 8.4 H9, 0.3 HR9, 4.8 BB9, 11.1 K9

2018 (NCAA): 3-8, 6.53 ERA, 15 GP, 62 IP, 11.3 H9, 0.7 HR9, 3.8 BB9, 7.8 K9

Here is his projected 2021 season:

2021 (A): 26 GP, 7-12, 115.1 IP, 64 ER, 131 H, 14 HR, 55 BB, 107 K

2021 (AA): 3 GP, 0-0, 3 ER, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K

Here is Jake Sommers’ projected 2021 season (age 23/24 season):

2021 (A): 7-12, 4.99 ERA, 10.2 H9, 1.1 HR9, 4.3 BB9, 8.3 K9, 4.35 FIP, as a starter

2020 (AA): 0-0, 8.10 ERA, 10.8 H9, 2.7 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 10.8 K9, 6.50 FIP, as a relief pitcher

Jake Sommers’ 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (1.5 star potential) 

Expected Role: Starting Pitcher in A-ball in the Colorado Rockies’ low minors

Future Role: At best, a bullpen arm in the majors

Jake Sommers is on the older end of the spectrum as a pitching prospect, and he hasn’t pitched in a high-level minor league level.  He’s not likely to reach the majors any time soon, and his best bet would be to try to make it as a relief pitcher, but he might have the least amount of upside amongst any of the prospects here that was included in this trade.

So essentially, from my review, here essentially is the trade:

The St. Louis Cardinals’ get:

3B Nolan Arenado (4-star player, All-Star caliber player, future 2021 Gold Glove winner, will help the Cards contend for the title) – in essence, a very good third baseman that is one of the best at his position.

Contract: The Rockies are paying $50 million, the Cards will pay him the remaining $165 million over 7 years

The Colorado Rockies’ get:

LHP Austin Gomber (2.5-star player, above average pitcher in the majors, versatile lefty that can start or come out of the bullpen)

3B Elehuris Montero (2.5 star potential, upper mid-tier organizational prospect, but not quite an elite prospect)

RHP Tony Locey (2 star potential, lower mid-tier organizational prospect, was a former high draft pick, could develop into being a hard throwing bullpen arm in the majors)

IF Mateo Gil (2 star potential, lower mid-tier organizational prospect, at best a backup utility player in the majors in the future)

RHP Jake Sommers (1.5 star potential, a low-tier organizational prospect, not likely to reach the majors)

Austin Gomber is under team control, and the rest are prospects.

Essentially, this trade is a win for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they add another star player to help their title chances.  Also, Arenado is happy, the Cardinals are happy, so this is a win-win for the Cards.

For the Colorado Rockies, they cut payroll, and they add 2 decent pieces to their team in Gomber and Montero, though the Rockies’ return doesn’t look very good at all right now.  The Rockies did not even get an elite prospect, they didn’t even try to trade for Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, or Matthew Liberatore, and they made a quantity for quality trade.  Gomber is a pretty good pitcher, but the Cardinals have to feel good about trading for one of the best third basemen in the game, and the Rockies only received arguably the third-best third base prospect in the Cardinals’ farm system in Elehuris Montero, whom plenty of people would’ve rated behind Gorman and Walker.

(Also, please be advised that players are rated on a 0.5 to 5 star scale. The grading rubric to rate players for both the 2021 season and the future is listed below:)

The Rubric to Grade Baseball Players:

5 stars (A+): Surefire Hall of Famer, MVP/Cy Young-level player, legend
4.5 stars (A): Perennial All-Star/Superstar
4 stars (A-): All-Star
3.5 stars (B+): Very good player/Borderline All-Star
3 stars (B): Good player/All-Star potential
2.5 stars (C+/B-): Above average player
2 stars (C): Average player
1.5 stars (D+/C-): Back-end major-league-caliber player
1 stars (D): Fringe major-leaguer
0.5 stars (D- and below): Not MLB material or would make virtually no impact at that level

Here are my trade grades:

The St. Louis Cardinals: A 

The Colorado Rockies: D

If you're a Cardinals' fan like me, you're probably celebrating this trade, and are eagerly waiting the arrival of Nolan Arenado, to see how he well he would team up with Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright, and the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' team.  If you're a Colorado Rockies' fan...sorry dude, looks like your front office just didn't make a very good trade.

Anyways, this is my analysis, and hope you enjoyed reading this.  Thank you for reading.