Recently, the St. Louis Cardinals made a blockbuster trade with the Colorado Rockies to acquire superstar third baseman, Nolan Arenado. Understandably, a lot of people on the Cardinals side are extremely happy, and a lot of people on the Rockies’ end are upset, with neutral baseball fans being baffled at the totality of this trade being made, especially on Colorado’s end. The Cardinals traded away Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, and three other minor-leaguers, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, and Jake Sommers, which at first glance is a very small price to pay to get Arenado, and the baseball world was in shock that the Cardinals didn’t have to give up an elite prospect to get Arenado.
Or did they give up an elite prospect without knowing? This is why I’m here, to help you break down this trade. Off we go! (Questions about the 2021 rating scale are answered at the bottom of this article.*)
Anyways, off to the analysis!
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The St. Louis Cardinals get:
Nolan Arenado has long been considered one of the premier players at his position for many years now, as he’s been considered the gold standard, the mark of consistency of having a strong bat and glove that makes him a very good player yearly. Of course, naysayers will point to the other fact that he played in Colorado, which notoriously is played in a hitters’ ballpark. Therefore, it will be important to demonstrate how well he played on the road, which would be other places that were his home ballpark.
Here are Nolan Arenado’s past three regular seasons (Fangraphs' WAR is used instead):
2020 (COL): .253 AVG, 8 HR, 26 RBI, .303 OBP, .434 SLG, .738 OPS, 10 K%, 0.9 WAR, Gold Glove winner
2019 (COL): .315 AVG, 41 HR, 118 RBI, .379 OBP, .583 SLG, .962 OPS, 14 K%, 6 WAR, All-Star, Gold Glove winner
2018 (COL): .297 AVG, 38 HR, 110 RBI, .374 OBP, .561 SLG, .935 OPS, 18.1 K%, 5.8 WAR, All-Star, Gold Glove winner, Silver Slugger winner
Here are Arenado’s career home and road splits:
Home (Career, or Coors Field): .322 AVG, 136 HR, 461 RBI, .376 OBP, .609 SLG, .985 OPS, 13.7 K%
Road (Everywhere Else): .263 AVG, 99 HR, 299 RBI, .322 OBP, .471 SLG, .793 OPS, 16.3 K%
Here is how well he’s played at Busch Stadium in his career:
(at STL): .98 PA, 278 AVG, 5 HR, 17 RBI, .337 OBP, .511 SLG, .848 OPS, 17.3 K%
Here are the postseasons (or playoffs, rather) that he’s showed up in from 2018-2020 (if you're a Cardinals' fan, you might want to skip this section, and go right to my 2021 season projections for him):
2020 (COL): Team didn’t make the playoffs
2019 (COL): Team didn’t make the playoffs
2018 (COL/postseason): .188 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .167 OBP, .188 SLG, .354 OPS
So with all of the facts presented, Nolan Arenado has perennially been a top player at the third base position, but he struggled in a shortened 2020 season. He’s been a terrific player at Coors Field, and he’s been solid, but not outstanding elsewhere. He’s only played in two postseasons in 2017 and 2018, but he has not played well in the playoffs, yet, so it’s not certain if he can be relied heavily in crunch time or in the clutch.
As for the playoffs, well....at least Arenado has a higher playoff batting average than Mike Trout? (Mike Trout has only been in one playoff series during his career, and Trout is 1 for 12 in the playoffs, as Trout is a career .083 hitter in the postseason, with his only hit being a home run.) Also, unlike Mike Trout, Arenado has won at least one playoff game. (Sorry, just had to throw in that dig at Trout. Anyways, carry on.)
Either way, Nolan Arenado is going to be a big factor in the Cardinals’ lineup. Given the Cardinals’ hitting coach, Jeff Albert’s current track record, what may be expected may be for Arenado’s batting average to not be as good as expected, but to see a rise in his walks, home runs, but also in strikeouts when he’ll be at the plate in 2021.
Here are my projected statistics for Nolan Arenado’s 2021 season:
Arenado's projected 2021 regular season:
2021 (STL): 654 PA, 561 AB, 158 H, 28 HR, 94 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS, 28 2B, 0 3B, 82 BB, 93 K, 14.2 K%, 2 HBP, 11 SF
Nolan Arenado’s projected 2021 season (age 29/30 season):
.282 AVG, 28 HR, 94 RBI, .370 OBP, .481 SLG%, .851 OPS, 14.2 K%, 4.6 WAR, Gold Glove
My projection is that, while he’s expected to experience a dip in his offensive statistics due to being away from Coors Field, he is still a good hitter regardless, and his strong glove will still make him an All-Star caliber player, and one of the best players at his position in 2021.
Also, Arenado is a disciplined hitter as he rarely strikes out, and his strong ability to make contact should help him on offense even if he doesn’t quite reach the power numbers that he’s posted when he was at Colorado. In 2021, I project that he might not necessarily make the All-Star team, but his impact will be as if he’ll make one, and I also project him to win the Gold Glove at third baseman for the Cardinals.
Nolan Arenado’s Projected 2021 Rating: 4 stars
Projected 2021 Role: Starting Third Basemen of the St. Louis Cardinals, future 2021 Gold Glove winner
Future Role: Starting Third Basemen of the St. Louis Cardinals, maybe make some All-Star teams, win some Gold Gloves, and hopefully get the Cardinals some World Series championships
The Colorado Rockies Get:
Here are the players that the Colorado Rockies received in this trade:
Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, and Jake Sommers.
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(Photo: Roy Chenoy/USA Today Sports, via SB Nation's Minor League Ball)
He is a tall, young left-handed pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen, and he is a hard thrower whose versatility can make him a fairly solid addition to their team. Gomber was rated as a upper mid-tier organizational prospect when he was in the Cardinals’ farm system. He might not have ace level stuff, but he’s easily the most important piece for the Rockies, at least in the short term. Gomber’s long-term future could be either as a solid, multi-inning bullpen arm, or as a back end rotation starter if they decide to deploy him as a starting pitcher.
Here is what Gomber did in his past 2 Major League seasons:
2020 (STL): 1-1, 1.86 ERA, 14 GP, 4 GS, 29 IP, 5.9 H9, 0.3 HR9, 4.7 BB9, 8.4 K9, 3.54 FIP, 0.5 WAR
2019 (STL): 6-2, 4.44 ERA, 29 GP, 11 GS, 75 IP, 9.7 H9, 0.8 HR9, 3.8 BB9, 8 K9, 4.03 FIP, 0.8 WAR
Gomber hasn’t pitched very much in Coors Field, and his lone appearance in Colorado was a win where he pitched 6 innings and allowed one run, so I don’t anticipate being able to project park factors into how well he’ll pitch during the 2021 season, so I’ll just go off of what he’s done previously in the majors. Interestingly enough, the splits suggest he's pitched considerably better as a starter than as a relief pitcher. He's not expected to be an innings eater if he's a full-time starter, but he does have the stuff to capably fill out a role either as a starter or bullpen pitcher this year.
Here is what Gomber has done in the postseason:
2020 Postseason (STL): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.1 IP, 13.5 H9, 0 HR9, 6.8 BB9, 13.5 K9
Since the Rockies are not expected to contend this year, and Gomber has been a solid pitcher in his role for the Cardinals, he’s expected to compete for a starting spot, and I think he could win a spot in their rotation.
Here is my 2021 season projections for Austin Gomber:
Austin Gomber, 2021 season projections:
2021 (COL): 32 GP, 155 IP, 169 H, 69 ER, 12 HR, 57 BB, 153 K, 1.847 WAR
Austin Gomber’s Projected 2021 season (age 27 season):
2021 (COL): 11-13, 4.01 ERA, 155 IP, 9.8 H9, 0.7 HR9, 3.3 BB9, 8.9 K9, 3.49 FIP, 1.8 WAR
Based on looking at Gomber’s statistics and splits, he may stand a lot to gain if he can make Colorado’s starting rotation, and if his solid home and road splits holds up in his move to Colorado. He is a four-pitch pitcher, as he throws an above average fastball, a heavy slider, and he also throws a curveball and a changeup. In looking at his pitching metrics on Fangraphs, it suggests that his fastball is his best pitch, and his breaking stuff is not nearly as good. Therefore, it’s expected that he will likely experience some drop off in his move to Colorado. Theoretically, the drop-off could be significant, but that hasn’t shown up in his statistics yet.
If Gomber plays up to his expectations as Colorado’s centerpiece on their end of this deal, this would be a decent acquisition, as he could capably be a middle of the rotation starter on their team.
Austin Gomber’s Projected 2021 Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2021 Role: Middle of the Rotation Starting Pitcher on the Colorado Rockies
Future Role: Middle of the Rotation Starting Pitcher on the Colorado Rockies
Prospect Rankings: Baseball America rated him as the 81st best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2019 season. Here is what he has done in the past three seasons.
2020 (STL): Did not play.
2019 (AA): .188 AVG, 7 HR, 18 RBI, .235 OBP, .317 SLG, .552 OPS
2019 (AZFL): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .333 OBP, .300 SLG, .633 OPS
2018 (A+): .286 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI, .330 OBP, .408 SLG, .738 OPS
2018 (A): .322 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI, .381 OBP, .529 SLG, .910 OPS
Elehuris Montero was once a rising prospect in the Cardinals’ farm system, as he is a corner infielder that showed the ability to hit, and for power, but he has since struggled in the high minors, and his progress has stalled at higher levels. He hasn’t played up to his potential recently, and so his prospect shine has worn off.
With uncertainty regarding the length of minor-league baseball, I’ll project minor leaguers to have a full season.
Here are my projections for Elehuris Montero in 2021:
2021 (AA): 508 PA, 460 AB, 112 H, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, 30 2B, 3 3B, 40 BB, 139 K, 5 HBP, 3 SF
2021 (AAA): 20 PA, 19 AB, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 SB, 0 CS, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HBP, 0 SF
2021 (MLB): 10 PA, 2 H, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 SB, 0 CS, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP, 0 SF
Elehuris Montero’s 2021 season projections – (age 22/23 season):
2021 (AA): .243 AVG, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB, .309 OBP, .420 SLG, .729 OPS, 27.4 K%
2021 (AAA): .211 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, .250 OBP, .421 SLG, .671 OPS, 30.0 K%
2021 (MLB): .200 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .273 OBP, .200 SLG, .473 OPS, 40.0 K%, 0 WAR
Elehuris Montero’s struggles at the higher minors suggests that he might not likely hit for a high batting average this year, as his placement suggests that he will likely start out at AA, but he has enough tools to hit for power and to advance if he can hit well enough at that level. If he can play well in the minors, there is still time for him to advance and carve out a major-league career at some point in the future.
Elehuris Montero’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2.5 star potential)
Expected 2021 role: Starting third baseman in AA in the Colorado Rockies’ farm system
Future role: Starting third baseman of a major league team, with his hit power as his strongest trait
Tony Locey is a former 3rd round pick that was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2019 MLB Draft. He was a star pitcher at Georgia in college baseball, but so far, his collegiate success has not quite translated to the minors yet.
Here is what he has done in the past couple of seasons:
2019 (A): 1-2, 6.00 ERA, 10 GP, 15 IP, 9 H9, 0.6 HR9, 6.0 BB9, 16.8 K9
2018 (NCAA): 11-2, 2.53 ERA, 16 GP, 89 IP, 5.2 H9, 0.8 HR9, 4.6 BB9, 9.8 K9
Here is his projected 2021 season:
2021 (A): 20 GP, 20 GS, 7-7, 108.2 IP, 55 ER, 108 H, 11 HR, 60 BB, 124 K
2021 (AA): 5 GP, 5 GS, 1-2, 13 ER. 22.1 IP, 23 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 21 K
Here is Tony Locey’s projected 2021 season (age 22/23 season):
2021 (A): 7-7, 4.56 ERA, 108.2 IP, 8.9 H9, 0.9 HR9, 5.0 BB9, 10.3 K9, 3.89 FIP
2-21 (AA): 1-2, 5.24 ERA, 22.1 IP, 9.3 H9, 1.2 HR9, 5.6 BB9, 8.5 K9, 4.95 FIP
Tony Locey’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2 star potential)
Expected 2021 role: Starting Pitcher in A-ball in the Colorado Rockies’ low minors
Future role: Bullpen arm in the majors or back end starting pitcher in the majors
Mateo Gil is a former 3rd round pick that was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2018 MLB Draft. He has not played a whole lot of baseball, nor much at the high minors. In high school, he was known for his hitting, extra-base ability, and base-stealing ability. Recently, he’s played in the Mexican Pacific Winter League, which may be the equivalent of the independent leagues.
Here is what he has done in the past several seasons.
2019 (Rk): .270 AVG, 7 HR, 30 RBI, .324 OBP, .431 SLG, .756 OPS, 24.9 K%
2019 (A+): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .000 OBP, .000 SLG, .000 OPS, 33.3 K%
Here is his projected 2021 season:
2021 (A): 327 PA, 301 AB, 71 H, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 14 2B, 1 3B, 9 SB, 4 CS, 93 K, 21 BB, 3 HBP, 2 SF
2021 (AA): 99 PA, 92 AB, 19 H, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 2B, 0 3B, 3 SB, 1 CS, 34K, 5 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Here is Mateo Gil’s projected 2021 season (age 20/21 season):
2021 (A): .236 AVG, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .291 OBP, 369 SLG, .659 OPS, 28.4 K%
2021 (AA): .207 AVG, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, .253 OBP, .272 SLG, .524 OPS, 34.3 K%
Link: https://www.mlb.com/news/mateo-gil-follows-father-into-pro-baseball-c280194754
Mateo Gil’s 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (2 star potential)
Expected Role: Starting Infielder in A-ball in the Colorado Rockies’ low minors
Future Role: At best, backup utility infielder in the majors
He was a former 10th round draft pick that was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2019 MLB Draft. He played college baseball at UW-Milwaukee. It is noted that he was a bullpen pitcher in his senior season when he was drafted, and he was converted to being a starting pitcher in rookie ball in 2019.
Here is what he has done previously.
2019 (Rk): 2-3, 4.18 ERA, 12 GP, 51.2 IP, 8.9 H9, 1.2 HR9, 3.3 BB9, 9.6 K9
2019 (NCAA): 2-2, 3.60 ERA, 23 GP, 30 IP, 8.4 H9, 0.3 HR9, 4.8 BB9, 11.1 K9
2018 (NCAA): 3-8, 6.53 ERA, 15 GP, 62 IP, 11.3 H9, 0.7 HR9, 3.8 BB9, 7.8 K9
Here is his projected 2021 season:
2021 (A): 26 GP, 7-12, 115.1 IP, 64 ER, 131 H, 14 HR, 55 BB, 107 K
2021 (AA): 3 GP, 0-0, 3 ER, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Here is Jake Sommers’ projected 2021 season (age 23/24 season):
2021 (A): 7-12, 4.99 ERA, 10.2 H9, 1.1 HR9, 4.3 BB9, 8.3 K9, 4.35 FIP, as a starter
2020 (AA): 0-0, 8.10 ERA, 10.8 H9, 2.7 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 10.8 K9, 6.50 FIP, as a relief pitcher
Jake Sommers’ 2021 Rating: 0.5 stars (1.5 star potential)
Expected Role: Starting Pitcher in A-ball in the Colorado Rockies’ low minors
Future Role: At best, a bullpen arm in the majors
Jake Sommers is on the older end of the spectrum as a pitching prospect, and he hasn’t pitched in a high-level minor league level. He’s not likely to reach the majors any time soon, and his best bet would be to try to make it as a relief pitcher, but he might have the least amount of upside amongst any of the prospects here that was included in this trade.
So essentially, from my review, here essentially is the trade:
The St. Louis Cardinals’ get:
3B Nolan Arenado (4-star player, All-Star caliber player, future 2021 Gold Glove winner, will help the Cards contend for the title) – in essence, a very good third baseman that is one of the best at his position.
Contract: The Rockies are paying $50 million, the Cards will pay him the remaining $165 million over 7 years
The Colorado Rockies’ get:
LHP Austin Gomber (2.5-star player, above average pitcher in the majors, versatile lefty that can start or come out of the bullpen)
3B Elehuris Montero (2.5 star potential, upper mid-tier organizational prospect, but not quite an elite prospect)
RHP Tony Locey (2 star potential, lower mid-tier organizational prospect, was a former high draft pick, could develop into being a hard throwing bullpen arm in the majors)
IF Mateo Gil (2 star potential, lower mid-tier organizational prospect, at best a backup utility player in the majors in the future)
RHP Jake Sommers (1.5 star potential, a low-tier organizational prospect, not likely to reach the majors)
Austin Gomber is under team control, and the rest are prospects.
Essentially, this trade is a win for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they add another star player to help their title chances. Also, Arenado is happy, the Cardinals are happy, so this is a win-win for the Cards.
For the Colorado Rockies, they cut payroll, and they add 2 decent pieces to their team in Gomber and Montero, though the Rockies’ return doesn’t look very good at all right now. The Rockies did not even get an elite prospect, they didn’t even try to trade for Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, or Matthew Liberatore, and they made a quantity for quality trade. Gomber is a pretty good pitcher, but the Cardinals have to feel good about trading for one of the best third basemen in the game, and the Rockies only received arguably the third-best third base prospect in the Cardinals’ farm system in Elehuris Montero, whom plenty of people would’ve rated behind Gorman and Walker.
(Also, please be advised that players are rated on a 0.5 to 5 star scale. The grading rubric to rate players for both the 2021 season and the future is listed below:)
The Rubric to Grade Baseball Players:
5 stars (A+): Surefire Hall of Famer, MVP/Cy Young-level player, legend
4.5 stars (A): Perennial All-Star/Superstar
4 stars (A-): All-Star
3.5 stars (B+): Very good player/Borderline All-Star
3 stars (B): Good player/All-Star potential
2.5 stars (C+/B-): Above average player
2 stars (C): Average player
1.5 stars (D+/C-): Back-end major-league-caliber player
1 stars (D): Fringe major-leaguer
0.5 stars (D- and below): Not MLB material or would make virtually no impact at that level
Here are my trade grades:
The St. Louis Cardinals: A
The Colorado Rockies: D
If you're a Cardinals' fan like me, you're probably celebrating this trade, and are eagerly waiting the arrival of Nolan Arenado, to see how he well he would team up with Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright, and the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals' team. If you're a Colorado Rockies' fan...sorry dude, looks like your front office just didn't make a very good trade.
Anyways, this is my analysis, and hope you enjoyed reading this. Thank you for reading.
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