2019 Season Preview: The St. Louis Cardinals

Spring training is already under way, but I wanted to take the time to figure out whom I would predict to make the St. Louis Cardinals’ roster for opening day.  There is a lot of competition for spots, and some good players will be left off or down in the minors to start the season.  Here are my predictions on who would make the team, as well as my thoughts on how they would fare and fit onto the roster.  (Also, another thing to denote, Fangraphs’ WAR is used here for that specific metric.)

Starting Pitchers (5)

Miles Mikolas is poised to have another strong season in 2019.

RHP Miles Mikolas

2018 (MLB): 18-4, 2.83 ERA, 200.2 IP, 6.55 K/9, 1.30 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 4.3 WAR

Plenty of people in Cardinals’ nation were excited when the team signed Mikolas away from Japan to pitch for them, but few could of expected him to excel so quickly, as he rose to prominence by winning 18 games and made the 2018 All-Star team.  Mikolas is a control pitcher that boasts having terrific command of his stuff, and he is a savvy veteran that is wise beyond his years, and he could have another All-Star caliber season this year for the Cards.

Projected Role: Ace of the Staff/#1 starter

RHP Jack Flaherty

2018 (MLB): 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 151 IP, 10.85 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, 2.3 WAR

Jack Flaherty had a very good rookie season, as he is a hard-throwing righty that can strike many hitters out.  He has ace level stuff, but he will need to keep improving his control and command of his stuff.  If he takes the next leap in his game, he could perhaps even elipse Mikolas to be the ace of the Cardinals’ team in the future.

Projected Role: #2 starter

RHP Carlos Martinez

2018 (MLB): 8-6, 3.11 ERA, 5 SV, 118.2 IP, 8.87 K/9, 4.55 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9, 2.2 WAR

When Martinez was the ace of the staff, he had been pitching very well as he had made two All-Star teams, was nicknamed “Tsunami,” and at times looked to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He had an injury-plagued, but still effective 2018 season, and Martinez is still a hard-thrower that can strike lots of hitters out.  But questions about his durability linger, and he also has some control issues, but Martinez is a versatile pitcher that could be effective as a mid-tier starter or as a top-notch bullpen arm for the Cards this season.

Projected Role: 3^rd or 4^th Starter

RHP Michael Wacha

2018 (MLB): 8-2, 3.20 ERA, 84.1 IP, 7.58 K/9, 3.84 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 0.8 WAR

Wacha has been injury-prone, as he has had shoulder problems, but he’s shown flashes of brilliance when he’s been on the mound.  Wacha-mania is no longer a thing and he will need to improve his curve ball, and he can be too predictable with his pitches, but he’s shown good command at times, and he still boasts having a very good fastball-changeup combination.  If Wacha plays as well as expected, he could be a productive, mid-tier starter in a team’s rotation.

Projected Role: 3^rd or 4^th starter

RHP Adam Wainwright

2018 (MLB): 2-4, 4.46 ERA, 40.1 IP, 8.93 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 0.5 WAR

For a long time, Adam Wainwright has been the most dominant pitcher on the Cardinals’ team, and he still has a devastating curveball that can be lethal to hitters.  But he’s been injury prone, and he’s lost velocity on his fastball, so he’s had to work hard to reshape his game.  Still, he’s a smart pitcher that knows how to get outs, and he is a savvy veteran that can start or come out of the bullpen, and he is a pitcher that can be relied upon in crunch time.

Projected Role: Spot Starter/Multi-Inning Reliever

Relief Pitchers (7)

Big things are expected of Andrew Miller, who has been one of the best relievers in this decade.

LHP Andrew Miller

2018 (MLB w/CLE): 2-4, 4.24 ERA, 34 IP, 8.2 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 11.9 K/9, 0.4 WAR

He’s been a very dependable multi-inning reliever for the Cleveland Indians, and he had a tremendous 2016 postseason run that made him invaluable to that squad, as he was among the best in baseball at his position.  Miller had an injury-plagued 2018 season, and while he’s not getting any younger, he could be due to return to top form as he will likely be mowing hitters down on a consistent basis while showing the strong command that’s enabled him to make two All-Star teams.

Projected Role: Multi-Inning Set Up Man

RHP Jordan Hicks

2018 (MLB): 3-4, 3.59 ERA, 6 SV, 77.2 IP, 8.11 K/9, 5.21 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9, 0.5 WAR

Hicks is a young fireballer that has the strongest arm in baseball.  He can throw 105 MPH, and his stuff is electric.  His future is bright, and he could be a young closer on the rise one day.  But what is baffling is startlingly pedestrian strikeout rate for a pitcher who throws so hard.  While Hicks does a great job of keeping the ball in the park, he also walks a lot of hitters, as he does so at an alarming rate.  Hicks may be the favorite to be the closer, and Hicks does boast having All-Star potential, but it could be a long season if he struggles to adjust to that role.

Projected Role: Closer

RHP Alex Reyes

2018 (MLB): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 IP, 4.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.0 WAR

He is a vastly talented, but oft-injured pitcher that has been widely regarded as the organization’s top prospect for several years now.  Reyes can throw 100 MPH, and he can really strike hitters out.  He boasts having good command, but he also tends to walk hitters.  If he’s healthy though, he could excel as either a starter or reliever, but the Cardinals might have him come out of the bullpen to prolong his chances to be durable for the entire season.

Projected Role: Multi-Inning Reliever/Spot Starter

LHP Austin Gomber

2018 (MLB): 6-2, 4.44 ERA, 75 IP, 8.04 K/9, 3.84 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 0.8 WAR

Gomber was one of the more pleasant surprises last year with the Cardinals, and he is a lefty that can start or come out of the bullpen.  He is a versatile pitcher that can keep the ball in the park, strike hitters out, and he also has pretty good control of his stuff.  If he can take the expected leap this year, he could be a solid bullpen arm this season.

Projected Role: Multi-Inning Reliever/Spot Starter

RHP John Gant

2018 (MLB): 7-6, 3.47 ERA, 114 IP, 7.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 1.2 WAR

After numerous injuries to pitchers on the Cardinals’ team last year, John Gant had a solid season, as he became the team’s fifth starter, and almost helped them get to the playoffs.  Gant is an above average pitcher that has good command of his stuff, he will need to improve his ability to locate his pitches, but he is a versatile pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen.

Projected Role: Multi-Inning Reliever/Spot Starter

RHP Domninic Leone

2018 (MLB): 1-2, 4.50 ERA, 24 IP, 9.75 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 0.2 WAR

When the Cardinals traded away Randal Grichuk, Dominic Leone was the pitcher they brought back.  Leone had a fairly good, but injury prone season, but in 2019, he’s expected to help bolster the team’s bullpen.  When he’s on his game, he can thrive as a hard-throwing right-hander in games.

Projected Role: Middle Reliever

RHP John Brebbia

2018 (MLB): 3-3, 3.20 ERA, 50.2 IP, 10.66 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 0.7 WAR

Brebbia had a solid 2018 season, and he’s a good all-around bullpen pitcher that can locate his pitches and strike hitters out.  He will need to focus on keeping the ball in the park more, but he will likely have another quality season in the majors in 2019.

Projected Role: Middle Reliever

Catchers (2)

Yadier Molina is a future Hall of Famer that is looking to help get the Cardinals back to the playoffs.

C Yadier Molina

2018 (MLB):  .261 AVG, 20 HR, 74 RBI, .314 OBP, .436 SLG, .750 OPS, 2.2 WAR

Yadier Molina has been one of the best catchers in this decade, and in this century.  He’s provided Gold Glove defense year after year, as well as a solid ability to hit the baseball.  Look for him to continue to do the same, as well as maybe get the coveted 10^th All-Star appearance, as he will continue to excel at the backstop in the Cards’ quest for the title in 2019.

Projected Role: Starter

C Matt Wieters

2018 (MLB w/WSN): .238 AVG, 8 HR, 30 RBI, .330 OBP, .374 SLG, .704 OPS, 0.9 WAR

There is quite the competition for the backup catcher job, and for a while, it appeared Francisco Pena would again be the favorite to land this role for another year while catching prospect Andrew Knizner spends some time in the high minors to hone his game.  But the Cardinals signed Wieters recently to bolster the team’s depth, and he is a welcome addition who has made multiple All-Star teams.   While he may no longer be the hitter he used to be, Wieters can provide above average defense and some pop in his bat in a backup role behind Yadi this year.

Projected Role: Backup

Infielders (6)

Paul Goldschmidt was a major addition to the Cardinals, and he could be the impact middle of the order bat that the team has sought for years.

1B Paul Goldschmidt

2018 (MLB w/ARI): .290 AVG, 33 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB, .389 OBP, .533 SLG, .922 OPS, 5.1 WAR

Goldschmidt has been the story of the offseason for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they acquired him in a trade with Arizona, as they dealt numerous players to get him.  Goldschmidt has been one of the best hitters in baseball, and he is a terrific hitter that has made 6 All-Star teams in a row.  Goldschmidt will likely continue to play excellent baseball, as well as maybe guide the Cardinals back to the postseason.

Projected Role: Starter

3B Matt Carpenter

2018 (MLB): .257 AVG, 36 HR, 81 RBI, .374 OBP, .523 SLG, .897 OPS, 5.0 WAR

Matt Carpenter is a terrific hitter that has a great approach to the plate, he can play multiple positions, and he has shown a solid ability to launch balls, as he hit a season best 36 homers last year.   He is a versatile player that teams would love to have on their team, and he will likely continue to be one of the best hitters in baseball for the upcoming season.

Projected Role: Starter

SS Paul DeJong

2018 (MLB): .241 AVG, 19 HR, 68 RBI, .313 OBP, .433 SLG, .746 OPS, 3.3 WAR

Paul DeJong is a power-hitting shortstop that can launch balls, and he is also a very good fielder at his position.  He’s not the fastest player, and his batting average was substantially down from his rookie season, but DeJong has been a productive player as he can also play multiple positions, and he will likely be one of the upper echelon shortstops in baseball this year.

Projected Role: Starter

2B Kolten Wong

2018 (MLB): .249 AVG, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB, .332 OBP, .388 SLG, .720 OPS, 2.8 WAR

Kolten Wong is a smooth fielding, rangy second baseman that played terrific defense in 2018.  Once thought to have All-Star potential due to his bat, instead it’s been his glove that has allowed him to stay in the lineup.  Wong does have some pop in his bat, but he no longer is a big threat to hit home runs, and he’s been an inconsistent hitter at the plate.  Wong does take walks, and his tremendous glove could help the Cards, as they may boast having one of the best infields this season.

Projected Role: Starter

IF Jedd Gyorko

2018 (MLB): .262 AVG, 11 HR, 47 RBI, .346 OBP, .416 SLG, .762 OPS, 1.4 WAR

Jedd Gyorko is a power-hitting corner infielder who has had two solid seasons as a starter with the Cardinals in 2016 and 2017, but last year, he had something of a power outage as he struggled to hit homers throughout the year.  He has begun to show signs of decline as an aging player, but he can play multiple positions, and he can still hit a double-digit number of homers for the Cards.

Projected Role: Top Backup Infielder

UT Drew Robinson

2018 (w/TEX): .183 AVG, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, .288 OBP, .294 SLG, .582 OPS, -0.1 WAR

The spot for the last infielder role could be just as intense as the backup catcher competition.  The other contender for this spot is second-year player Yairo Munoz, but Robinson is expected to beat him out to make the team’s opening day roster because he bats left-handed, and he is a better fielder than Munoz.  Robinson is a power-hitting utility player that can play multiple positions, but he strikes out a ton, and hasn’t hit well in the majors.  He boasts having a stellar minor-league track record, but this year is a make or break year for him, otherwise he could end up getting the dreaded 4A player label.

Projected Role: Backup/Utility Player

Outfielders (5)

LF Marcell Ozuna

2018 (MLB): .280 AVG, 23 HR, 88 RBI, .325 OBP, .433 SLG, .758 OPS, 2.7 WAR

Marcell Ozuna was last year’s big haul for the Cardinals.  He didn’t quite play as well as expected, but he still put up some solid numbers as he really turned it on in the second half of the season.  Ozuna is a power hitter that can be expected to hit for a high average, but he is not a great fielder defensively.  But expect him to have a big season, especially with Goldschmidt and Carpenter to surround him, and Ozuna could end up playing to All-Star caliber form this season.

Projected Role: Starter

Harrison Bader is looking to follow up on a strong rookie season.

CF Harrison Bader

2018 (MLB): .264 AVG, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 15 SB, ,334 OBP, .422 SLG, .756 OPS, 3.5 WAR

Harrison Bader had a very good rookie season, and he is a terrific defensive player, as he has a lot of range, can catch a lot of baseballs, and he could win a gold glove someday.  On offense, he may be a slightly above average hitter, but he can also steal bases.  Bader will likely have a solid sophomore season in the majors, as he could project to be like a Kevin Kiermaier type of player for the Cards.

Projected Role: Starter

RF Dexter Fowler

2018 (MLB): .180 AVG, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 5 SB, .278 OBP, .298 SLG, .576 OPS, -1.2 WAR

Fowler has been known for having a strong approach to the plate, as well as having very good speed on the basepaths.  He played a key role on the 2016 Chicago Cubs to help get them the title.  But last year, he didn’t show much of either of those things, as he struggled to get hits or to steal bases.  Much of the blame may lie on his lack of rapport with Mike Matheny, and then he ended up getting injured. 

Given his gargantuan contract and full no-trade clause he was given when he signed with the Cardinals, Fowler will be given every chance to start and to have a fresh start in 2019.  Chances are he will be made the starting right fielder on Opening Day.  But if he repeats his disappointing year in 2018, Fowler could be to the Cardinals what Luol Deng was to the Los Angeles Lakers, a former good player who turned out to be known for his albatross contract with that organization.

Projected Role: Platoon Player between Starter and Bench Player

OF/1B Jose Martinez

2018 (MLB): .305 AVG, 17 HR, 83 RBI, .364 OBP, .457 SLG, .821 OPS, 2.3 WAR

Jose Martinez is a very good hitter, as he is a tall, power hitter that consistently gets hits, and he can provide close to 20 homers in any given season.  If he were in the American League, he could clearly play in an everyday role as a DH, and contend to make the All-Star team.  But there is one thing that sets him back, and Martinez rates as a porous defender when he is out in the field.  Defensive metrics rate him as quite poor, as he just doesn’t have much range.  But Martinez’s ability to hit the baseball should make him a key player on this year’s team, whether if he ends up being a starter or if he ends up being the top reserve player off the bench this season.

Projected Role: Platoon Player between Starter and Bench Player

OF Tyler O’Neill

2018 (MLB): .254 AVG, 9 HR, 23 RBI, .303 OBP, .500 SLG, .803 OPS, 1.3 WAR

Tyler O’Neill at first struggled a bit in the majors, but he consistently played excellent baseball in AAA, and when he ended up getting called up again, he played very well in the time he was on the field.  Based on analytics and projection models, O’Neill probably should be the favorite to be the starting right fielder, as he is a young power hitter that has a lot of upside, and he is also a very good fielder.

But there is one thing that could set him back, O’Neill strikes out a ton, and that aspect could make projecting how well his season goes this year to be difficult.  As much as he has All-Star potential, O’Neill also could be a boom or bust type of player for this year’s team.  The battle probably should be between him and Jose Martinez to be the starting right fielder, but there are reports saying that O’Neill could start the season in the minors.  While he could thrive in a platoon role in the majors, it is uncertain which role the Cards will have him play, as the crowded race at right field could leave one hitter to be the odd man out.

Projected Role: Platoon Player between Starter and Bench Player

Expected 2019 Outlook:

Owner Bill DeWitt Jr., President Baseball of Operations John Mozeliak, and Manager Mike Shildt look to be poised to have a strong 2019 season.

This is a deep roster that boasts having a lot of talent all the way through.  Though they may not have a dominant starter on their pitching staff, they have many different players that can provide solid innings up and down their roster.  Getting Goldschmidt surely will help make the Cardinals have one of the best infields in the majors, as he and Carpenter will be two of the best hitters in baseball.  Yadier Molina has been very good year in and year out.  While Ozuna and Bader will likely play well this year, what they get out of their right fielder remains a mystery this year.   That said, Mike Shildt did a very good job in his rookie season as a manager after being called in to manage midway through, as he guided a team that was then on the brink of disaster to helping them nearly make the playoffs. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch, and owner Bill Dewitt Jr. have built themselves a very good roster for upcoming season.

While the Cardinals may be far from being a lock to be the team to come out of the National League, they will be a better team than last year, as Paul Goldschmidt will strengthen their lineup, and Andrew Miller will bolster their bullpen, and the Cardinals could end up making their way to the playoffs in 2019.

Projected 2019 Grades:

Starting Rotation: B

Bullpen: B

Catcher: B+
Infield: A-
Outfield: B-
Bench: B
Manager: B+

Overall: B+

2019 St. Louis Cardinals’ Season Expectation: Will contend for the division title, likely could grab one of the wildcard spots, and could be a tough out if they make the playoffs this year, with an outside chance to win the World Series.  

Post-Predictions Update: Jedd Gyorko will start the season on the injured list, so both Yairo Munoz and Drew Robinson will make the team.  Mike Mayers also made the team, Carlos Martinez will start the season on the injured list, Dakota Hudson will be the 5th starter while John Gant will be the long man in the majors, and Austin Gomber will be in AAA.  Also, John Brebbia edged out Tyler Webb to nab the final bullpen spot on the Cardinals' major league team to be on the Opening Day roster.