Thoughts On The Andrew Miller Signing

The Cardinals add one of the biggest names among bullpen arms by signing Andrew Miller to a 2-year deal.

Recently, the St. Louis Cardinals signed Andrew Miller to a two year, $22.5 million deal, with a club option for $12 million in 2021, according to Jon Heyman.  He also was given a no-trade clause.  As the Cards have needed bullpen help for a long time, this seems to be a very logical signing.

In fact, Andrew Miller had been one of the best bullpen pitchers in three of the last four seasons for both the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Indians, as he has racked up AL Cy Young award votes, and has made two All-Star teams in that time span.

He also had 10 wins in 2016 despite having been in the bullpen all year long, which was quite a remarkable feat, and Andrew Miller has had a sub-2.00 ERA in 2016 and 2017.  He had a tremendous 2016 postseason run in which he took home the ALCS MVP honors, and his versatility coming out of the bullpen, and his ability to be a dominant multi-inning reliever allowed Cleveland to win many games that year and to almost win the World Series.

According to Fangraphs, from 2014-2017, Andrew Miller had a combined 9.6 WAR in those four seasons, placing in the top 5 among bullpen pitchers in each of those seasons in Wins Above Replacement, and was tops among all relievers in that category in the 2016 season.  He also was tops among relievers that had pitched 50 innings or more in Ks per 9 in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, which denotes Miller’s prowess as a strikeout pitcher.  He’s been a transformational pitcher that have made people reassess how bullpen pitchers are valued, as he’s been significantly more valuable than the average closer over the years.

However, 2018 wasn’t exactly a great season for Miller in his last year in Cleveland.  Last year, he had shoulder problems, which limited his ability to pitch throughout the year.  He had an injury plagued season that had him collect more losses than wins, which was the first time he had done so since the 2013 season.  Miller also had a 4.24 ERA, and had only a 0.4 WAR according to Fangraphs.

On top of that, Andrew Miller will be turning 33 in mid-May, and will be in his mid-30s by the end of his tenure with the Cardinals.  With that in mind, the likelihood of Miller entering into his decline years could be fairly high, which could actually make this signing fairly risky, with Miller having also received a full no-trade clause.  And skeptics may point to the ill-fated Greg Holland signing of last year as a warning sign when pursuing big-name relievers.  Last year, the Cardinals had signed Holland to a 1-year, $14 million deal, and gave up a compensation pick to sign him just before Opening Day, only for Holland to post a horrific 7.92 ERA before being released by the Cards midseason.

On the other hand, Miller is a proven bullpen pitcher that has a very good track record, and his versatility and experience could allow him to be used in any way the Cardinals deem fit, while allowing the younger pitchers to develop at their own pace without having to be in high leverage situations too soon.

2019 Expectations: Multi-Inning Reliever

2019 Rating: 3.5 stars

Projected 2019 Statistics: 55 GP, 5-3, 2.86 ERA, 15 SV, 6.9 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.7 HR.9, 13.1 K/9

55 GP, 63 IP, 48 H, 23 BB, 5 HR, 92 K, 20 ER, 1.8 WAR

Conclusion:

Overall, this move helps to strengthen the Cardinals' bullpen, and immediately, Miller provides an upgrade over the top arms that were there in 2018.  However, he's had a lot of miles on his arm, and he had a down year in which he's also had shoulder problems, and combined with that he's entering his mid-30s, this makes this signing fairly risky.  But the Cardinals are gunning for the championship, and this seems like a calculated risk that could be worth taking.

Grade of Cards’ Signing Andrew Miller: B