St. Louis Cardinals' Top Prospects for 2019: #1-15

After looking up information on MLB Pipeline, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs,  I decided to rate who I feel are the top St. Louis Cardinals' prospects for the 2019 season.

In terms of grading players, it’s a combination of analyzing their 2018 season performance, overall ability, and upside.  In evaluating the prospects’ potential, unlike earlier posts, this scale is used in evaluating prospects compared to other prospects, though this is still on a 0.5 to 5 star grading scale.  But just to save time, only the first 30 prospects will get profiled in depth.

The toughest part was deciding whom to rate as the best prospect that the Cardinals have for the 2019 season.  Alex Reyes has long been the top-rated player among prospects, as he can strike many batters out, throws really hard, and can start or come out of the bullpen, but has been injury-prone.  Nolan Gorman had a tremendous season last year as he can really hit and mash, but he may be quite far away from the majors, though he has had no injury problems.  Basically, the debate was between these two listed above.  

St. Louis Cardinals’ 2019 Prospects: #1-15

It was a tough choice, but Gorman barely edges out Reyes as this site's pick for the top Cards' prospect in 2019.

1. 3B Nolan Gorman – A-

2018 (Rookie): .350 AVG, 11 HR, 28 RBI, .443 OBP, .664 SLG, 1.107 OPS
2018 (A): .202 AVG, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .280 OBP, .426 SLG, .706 OPS

Gorman hit the ball really well in rookie ball, he showed off tremendous power and a very good batting eye at that level.  He struggled to hit at A ball, but that’s expected since that level is quite advanced for a player his age. 

He is a power hitting, third basemen that can hit and has good patience, and he definitely has All-Star potential if he live up to his expectations.  He’s still very far away from reaching the Majors right now, but Cardinals’ fans have to be excited about what he can bring to the table.

2019 Expectations – Age ~19 season:  Good A ball player

Future career path:  Solid everyday starter, potential All-Star

2019 Player Rating: 4-star potential

 

Alex Reyes has a ton of talent, but can he stay healthy? If he can, expect him to have a strong 2019 season in the MLB.

2. P Alex Reyes – A-

MLB Career: 4-1, 1.44 ERA, 50 IP, 13 GP, 6 GS, 9.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9, 1.4 WAR

AAA Career: 3-3, 4.48 ERA, 72.1 IP, 15 GS, 13.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9

He has been the Cardinals’ prized prospect for several years, as he’s pitched really well in the minors and the majors, boasts having a fastball in the triple digits, and he also has a solid curveball and changeup.  No one doubts that Reyes has the stuff of a future ace or closer, and has had the all-world ability that could make him great one day. 

However, he’s had lots of trouble staying healthy or pitching a full season, as that potentially could stand in the way of him becoming an elite pitcher in the MLB one day.  Reyes has pitched well wherever he’s gone, but he’ll need to show the Cards that he can stay off of the disabled list.

2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: Above average spot starter/multi-inning bullpen arm in the majors

Future career path: Good starter, or multi-inning bullpen arm in the mold of an Andrew Miller type

2019 Player Rating: 4-star potential

Dakota Hudson is a smart, productive pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen at the big league level.

3. P Dakota Hudson – B-

2018 (MLB): 4-1, 2.63 ERA, 27.1 IP, 26 GP, 6.26 K/9, 5.93 BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.1 WAR

2018 (AAA): 13-3, 2.50 ERA, 111.2 IP, 7.01 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 0.08 HR/9

Hudson is a highly productive pitcher that possesses really good command of his pitches, and he simply knows how to get outs.  According to MLB Pipeline, Hudson was both the Texas League All-Star and Pitcher of the Year, and he has had tremendous success in the minors.  He came up during the middle of the season in the majors for the Cardinals, and he was able to more than hold his own coming out of the bullpen.

He has the stuff of a power pitcher as he can consistently throw in the mid-90s, and he also has a good slider.  Hudson is quite effective at inducing ground balls.  He isn’t a strikeout pitcher though, as he didn’t miss many bats in the majors or in AAA, but Hudson could translate to be being a reliable pitcher in any role he’s asked to play in.

2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: Spot starter/Long man in the majors, maybe spend some time in AAA due to the competition on the MLB roster

Future career path: Above average starter, or versatile multi-inning bullpen arm

2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential

4. C Andrew Knizner – B-

2018 (AAA): .315 AVG, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .383 OBP, .407 SLG, .791 OPS, 15 CS%
2018 (AA): .313 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI, .365 OBP, .434 SLG, .800 OPS, 29 CS%

Knizner played well in both AA and AAA this year, as he did a good job of hitting the baseball, getting on base, and he also is an above average defensive catcher.   On the downside, he had a career low in caught stealing percentage, as he only threw out 27% of the base runners that attempted to run on him last year.  Most likely, he will be in AAA to start the 2019 season, but he could be ready to reach the majors soon, and he could end up having a long career in the big leagues.

2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: AAA Starter/September call-up in the majors

Future career path: Fringe starter/Backup catcher in the majors

2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential

Elehuris Montero had a tremendous year in 2018. He is a promising prospect that could have a big 2019 season. 

5. CI Elehuris Montero – B-

2018 (A+): .286 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, .330 OBP, .408 SLG, .738 OPS

2018 (A): .322 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB, .381 OBP, .529 SLG, .910 OPS

He is a young, promising power hitter that can hit and mash homers, but he runs the risk of being blocked because he might end up being a first baseman-only prospect.  As scouting reports say he cannot run or field, he projects to be a 1B, Matt Adams/Luke Voit type of prospect.  In a favorable scenario, he could develop into an above average starter in the MLB, but may not have much multi-positional versatility.

2019 Expectations – Age 20 season: Good starter at A+, then maybe reach AA

Future career path:  Decent starter at 1B

2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential

6. OF Randy Arozarena – B-

2018 (AAA): .232 AVG, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 17 SB, .328 OBP, .348 SLG, .676 OPS

2018 (AA): .396 AVG, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 9 SB, .455 OBP, .681 SLG, 1.137 OPS

He is an athletic, toolsy outfielder that can really run and field, and he also has some pop in his bat, as he has double-digit home run potential.  However, he may only have average power, and he did not consistently hit the ball very well once he reached AAA.  It’ll be tough for him to lock down a roster spot in the majors due to the competition for spots in the outfield in St. Louis, but Arozarena has the skills to be an everyday starter in the big leagues someday.

2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: Spend most of the season in AAA, then arrive in the Majors as a September call-up

Future career path: 3^rd or 4^th outfielder, average starter or fairly good bench player

2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential

7. OF Conner Capel – B-

2018 (A+): .257 AVG, 7 HR, 63 RBI, 15 SB, .341 OBP, .376 SLG, .716 OPS

Capel is an outfielder that was acquired in a trade with Cleveland when the Cardinals sent emerging prospect Oscar Mercado to the Indians.  Capel is an athletic, toolsy outfielder that can run, field, and he also has some pop in his bat.  He also can draw walks, but he will need to hit the ball more consistently.

2019 Expectations – Age 22 season: Good starter in A+, then get promoted midseason to AA

Future career path: 4^th outfielder

2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential

8. P Griffin Roberts – C+

2018 (A+): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 18 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0 HR/9

2018 (Rk): 0-1, 6.23 ERA, 8.2 IP, 11.4 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0 HR/9

Roberts is a versatile pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen.  He can start, come out of the bullpen, or close.  He has three pretty good pitches, and he is rated to have a really good slider pitch.  He’s a strikeout pitcher that will need to work on locating his pitches more, but if he reaches his full potential, he could be an asset to any team in the majors.

2019 Expectations – Age ~23 season: Good starter in A ball, then get called up to A+ midseason

Future career path: Spot starter/Long man

2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential

Daniel Poncedeleon threw seven no-hit innings in his first start, and he will be a reliable contributor for the Cards in 2019.

9. P Daniel Poncedeleon – C+

2018 (MLB): 0-2, 2.73 ERA, 33 IP, 8.45 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, 0.7 WAR

2018 (AAA): 9-4, 2.24 ERA, 96.1 IP, 10.28 K/9, 4.67 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9

Poncedeleon is a very productive pitcher that has three pretty good pitches, and he pitched well both in AAA and in the MLB this past season.  Poncedeleon had a really strong debut in the majors, as he recorded seven no-hit innings in his first start, and he’s shown a penchant for striking hitters out, and keeping the ball in the ballpark.  

However, he doesn’t have an elite pitch mix nor have elite velocity, so he might not be able to go through multiple times in the order at the big league level.  But he still may have the stuff to be a decent backend starter or multi-inning bullpen arm in the majors.

2019 Expectations – Age 27 season: Spot starter/Long man in the majors

Future career path: Spot starter/Long man in the majors

2019 Player Rating:  2.0 star potential

10. P Genesis Cabrera – C+

2018 (AAA): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0 HR/9

2018 (AA): 8-9, 4.23 ERA, 138.1 IP, 9.43 K/9, 4.55 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9

Cabrera is a left-handed pitcher that can throw fastballs in the mid-90s, and he has two good pitches, as he also is said to have an above average slider.  He’ll need to locate his pitches more and continue to develop his pitches, but he could project into being a reliable bullpen arm in the majors someday.

2019 Expectations – Age 22 season: AAA starter

Future career path: Multi-inning bullpen arm in the majors

2019 Player Rating: 2.0 star potential

11. OF Dylan Carlson – C+

2018 (A+): .247 AVG, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 6 SB, .345 OBP, .386 SLG, .731 OPS

2018 (A): .234 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, .368 OBP, .426 SLG, .794 OPS

Carlson is a young outfielder that fields the ball well, and he is a patient hitter that can draw a lot of walks.  He will need to improve his ability to hit consistently, as well as his ability to drive the baseball and run on the basepaths.  If he reaches the majors someday, he could end up being like a 4^th outfielder.  On the other hand, the fact that he’s zooming up the minors means he might have more upside than he may appear to have.

2019 Expectations – Age 20 season: A+ Starter, maybe get some at-bats in AA towards the end of the season

Future career path: 4^th outfielder

2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential

Patrick Wisdom had a very good 2018 season, and he could be a useful power bat off the bench for the Cards in 2019.

12. 3B Patrick Wisdom – C+

2018 (MLB): .260 AVG, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .362 OBP, .520 SLG, .882 OPS, 0.4 WAR

2018 (AAA): .288 AVG, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 11 SB, .363 OBP, .480 SLG, .843 OPS

He is a power hitting, corner infielder that has hit the ball well in AAA the past two seasons, and he can hit the ball a ton.  Wisdom played well in the majors this past year.   His batting eye has been suspect in years’ past, and he may not have elite tools, but Wisdom could project to excel as a power bat off the bench in 2019.

2019 Expectations – Age 27 season: Bench player in the majors

Future career path: Bench player in the majors

2019 Player Rating:  2.0 star potential

13. OF Justin Williams – C+

2018 (MLB): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .000 OPS, 1 PA

2018 (AAA): .252 AVG, 11 HR, 57 RBI, 4 SB, .307 OBP, .379 SLG, .685 OPS

Justin Williams is an athletic, toolsy outfielder that briefly reached the majors with Tampa Bay before being part of the Tommy Pham trade that sent him to the St. Louis Cardinals’ organization.  Williams projects to be a decent fielder, and he has some pop in his bat, but he will need to improve his ability to hit, get on base, and baserunning ability.  Scouts seem to be pretty high on him, but he may likely spend another season in AAA due to the competition for roster spots in the outfield in the MLB next year.

2019 Expectations – Age 23 season: AAA starter, maybe get called up in September
Future career path: 4^th outfielder

2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential

14. 1B Luken Baker – C+

2018 (A):.288 AVG, 3 HR, 15 RBI, .359 OBP, .417 SLG, .776 OPS
2018 (Rk): .500 AVG, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .536 OBP, .708 SLG, 1.244 OPS

He is a offensive-minded first baseman that hits the ball well, and he also has good power, as he can hit home runs.  However, Baker does not run or field well, despite having a fairly strong arm.  Therefore, he’s basically limited to playing either at 1B or DH if he gets to the majors.  His bat could allow him to thrive in the big leagues, but it may take him awhile as his highest level played so far was in A-ball.

2019 Expectations – Age 22 season: Good A+ ball hitter, maybe show up at AA late in the year

Future career path: Maybe a starter or quality bench player in the majors

2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential

15. P Steven Gingery – C+

NCAA career: 14-3, 2.23 ERA, 161.2 IP, 31 GP, 9.63 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9

Gingery is a 4^th round selection as he played at Texas Tech, and the lefthander boasts having three pretty good pitches, which includes having a very good changeup.  He is also noted for having good control, but he consistently throws a low 90s fastball with a sink to it.  He largely projects to be a groundball pitcher in the majors, as he could develop into either a backend starter or a bullpen arm that can go multiple innings.

2019 Expectations – Age 21 season: Pitch well in the lower minors, than maybe get a call-up to AA

Future career path: Spot starter/Long man in the majors

2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential

To read which prospects rated as #16-30 and who made the honorable mention list, you can read it here.  Anyways, that is all there is for now, and thank you for reading.