After looking up information on MLB Pipeline, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs, I decided to rate who I feel are the top St. Louis Cardinals' prospects for the 2019 season.
In terms of grading players, it’s a combination of analyzing
their 2018 season performance, overall ability, and upside. In evaluating the prospects’ potential,
unlike earlier posts, this scale is used in evaluating prospects compared to
other prospects, though this is still on a 0.5 to 5 star grading scale. But just to save time, only the first 30
prospects will get profiled in depth.
The toughest part was deciding whom to rate as the best
prospect that the Cardinals have for the 2019 season. Alex Reyes has long been the top-rated player
among prospects, as he can strike many batters out, throws really hard, and can
start or come out of the bullpen, but has been injury-prone. Nolan Gorman had a tremendous season last
year as he can really hit and mash, but he may be quite far away from the
majors, though he has had no injury problems.
Basically, the debate was between these two listed above.
St. Louis Cardinals’ 2019 Prospects: #1-15
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| It was a tough choice, but Gorman barely edges out Reyes as this site's pick for the top Cards' prospect in 2019. |
1. 3B Nolan Gorman – A-
2018 (Rookie): .350 AVG, 11 HR, 28 RBI, .443 OBP, .664 SLG,
1.107 OPS
2018 (A): .202 AVG, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .280 OBP, .426 SLG, .706 OPS
2018 (A): .202 AVG, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .280 OBP, .426 SLG, .706 OPS
Gorman hit the ball really well in rookie ball, he showed
off tremendous power and a very good batting eye at that level. He struggled to hit at A ball, but that’s
expected since that level is quite advanced for a player his age.
He is a power hitting, third basemen that can hit and has
good patience, and he definitely has All-Star potential if he live up to his
expectations. He’s still very far away
from reaching the Majors right now, but Cardinals’ fans have to be excited
about what he can bring to the table.
2019 Expectations – Age ~19 season: Good A ball player
Future career path:
Solid everyday starter, potential All-Star
2019 Player Rating: 4-star potential
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| Alex Reyes has a ton of talent, but can he stay healthy? If he can, expect him to have a strong 2019 season in the MLB. |
2. P Alex Reyes – A-
MLB Career: 4-1, 1.44 ERA, 50 IP, 13 GP, 6 GS, 9.7 K/9, 4.5
BB/9, 0.2 HR/9, 1.4 WAR
AAA Career: 3-3, 4.48 ERA, 72.1 IP, 15 GS, 13.2 K/9, 4.1
BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
He has been the Cardinals’ prized prospect for several
years, as he’s pitched really well in the minors and the majors, boasts having
a fastball in the triple digits, and he also has a solid curveball and
changeup. No one doubts that Reyes has
the stuff of a future ace or closer, and has had the all-world ability that
could make him great one day.
However, he’s had lots of trouble staying healthy or
pitching a full season, as that potentially could stand in the way of him
becoming an elite pitcher in the MLB one day.
Reyes has pitched well wherever he’s gone, but he’ll need to show the
Cards that he can stay off of the disabled list.
2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: Above average spot
starter/multi-inning bullpen arm in the majors
Future career path: Good starter, or multi-inning bullpen
arm in the mold of an Andrew Miller type
2019 Player Rating: 4-star potential
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| Dakota Hudson is a smart, productive pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen at the big league level. |
3. P Dakota Hudson – B-
2018 (MLB): 4-1, 2.63 ERA, 27.1 IP, 26 GP, 6.26 K/9, 5.93
BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 0.1 WAR
2018 (AAA): 13-3, 2.50 ERA, 111.2 IP, 7.01 K/9, 3.06 BB/9,
0.08 HR/9
Hudson is a highly productive pitcher that possesses really
good command of his pitches, and he simply knows how to get outs. According to MLB Pipeline, Hudson was both
the Texas League All-Star and Pitcher of the Year, and he has had tremendous
success in the minors. He came up during
the middle of the season in the majors for the Cardinals, and he was able to
more than hold his own coming out of the bullpen.
He has the stuff of a power pitcher as he can consistently
throw in the mid-90s, and he also has a good slider. Hudson is quite effective at inducing ground
balls. He isn’t a strikeout pitcher
though, as he didn’t miss many bats in the majors or in AAA, but Hudson could
translate to be being a reliable pitcher in any role he’s asked to play in.
2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: Spot starter/Long man in
the majors, maybe spend some time in AAA due to the competition on the MLB
roster
Future career path: Above average starter, or versatile
multi-inning bullpen arm
2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential
4. C Andrew Knizner – B-
2018 (AAA): .315 AVG, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .383 OBP, .407 SLG, .791
OPS, 15 CS%
2018 (AA): .313 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI, .365 OBP, .434 SLG, .800 OPS, 29 CS%
2018 (AA): .313 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI, .365 OBP, .434 SLG, .800 OPS, 29 CS%
Knizner played well in both AA and AAA this year, as he did
a good job of hitting the baseball, getting on base, and he also is an above
average defensive catcher. On the
downside, he had a career low in caught stealing percentage, as he only threw
out 27% of the base runners that attempted to run on him last year. Most likely, he will be in AAA to start the
2019 season, but he could be ready to reach the majors soon, and he could end
up having a long career in the big leagues.
2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: AAA Starter/September
call-up in the majors
Future career path: Fringe starter/Backup catcher in the
majors
2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59937471/montero.0.jpeg "Picture courtesy of peoriachiefs.mlblogs.com and vivaelbirdos.com") |
| Elehuris Montero had a tremendous year in 2018. He is a promising prospect that could have a big 2019 season. |
5. CI Elehuris Montero – B-
2018 (A+): .286 AVG, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, .330 OBP, .408 SLG,
.738 OPS
2018 (A): .322 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB, .381 OBP, .529 SLG,
.910 OPS
He is a young, promising power hitter that can hit and mash
homers, but he runs the risk of being blocked because he might end up being a
first baseman-only prospect. As scouting
reports say he cannot run or field, he projects to be a 1B, Matt Adams/Luke
Voit type of prospect. In a favorable
scenario, he could develop into an above average starter in the MLB, but may
not have much multi-positional versatility.
2019 Expectations – Age 20 season: Good starter at A+, then
maybe reach AA
Future career path:
Decent starter at 1B
2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential
6. OF Randy Arozarena – B-
2018 (AAA): .232 AVG, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 17 SB, .328 OBP, .348
SLG, .676 OPS
2018 (AA): .396 AVG, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 9 SB, .455 OBP, .681 SLG,
1.137 OPS
He is an athletic, toolsy outfielder that can really run and
field, and he also has some pop in his bat, as he has double-digit home run
potential. However, he may only have
average power, and he did not consistently hit the ball very well once he
reached AAA. It’ll be tough for him to
lock down a roster spot in the majors due to the competition for spots in the
outfield in St. Louis, but Arozarena has the skills to be an everyday starter
in the big leagues someday.
2019 Expectations – Age 24 season: Spend most of the season
in AAA, then arrive in the Majors as a September call-up
Future career path: 3rd or 4th
outfielder, average starter or fairly good bench player
2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential
7. OF Conner Capel – B-
2018 (A+): .257 AVG, 7 HR, 63 RBI, 15 SB, .341 OBP, .376
SLG, .716 OPS
Capel is an outfielder that was acquired in a trade with
Cleveland when the Cardinals sent emerging prospect Oscar Mercado to the
Indians. Capel is an athletic, toolsy
outfielder that can run, field, and he also has some pop in his bat. He also can draw walks, but he will need to
hit the ball more consistently.
2019 Expectations – Age 22 season: Good starter in A+, then
get promoted midseason to AA
Future career path: 4th outfielder
2019 Player Rating: 2.5-star potential
8. P Griffin Roberts – C+
2018 (A+): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 18 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0 HR/9
2018 (Rk): 0-1, 6.23 ERA, 8.2 IP, 11.4 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0 HR/9
Roberts is a versatile pitcher that can start or come out of
the bullpen. He can start, come out of
the bullpen, or close. He has three
pretty good pitches, and he is rated to have a really good slider pitch. He’s a strikeout pitcher that will need to
work on locating his pitches more, but if he reaches his full potential, he
could be an asset to any team in the majors.
2019 Expectations – Age ~23 season: Good starter in A ball,
then get called up to A+ midseason
Future career path: Spot starter/Long man
2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential
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| Daniel Poncedeleon threw seven no-hit innings in his first start, and he will be a reliable contributor for the Cards in 2019. |
9. P Daniel Poncedeleon – C+
2018 (MLB): 0-2, 2.73 ERA, 33 IP, 8.45 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 0.55
HR/9, 0.7 WAR
2018 (AAA): 9-4, 2.24 ERA, 96.1 IP, 10.28 K/9, 4.67 BB/9,
0.37 HR/9
Poncedeleon is a very productive pitcher that has three
pretty good pitches, and he pitched well both in AAA and in the MLB this past
season. Poncedeleon had a really strong
debut in the majors, as he recorded seven no-hit innings in his first start,
and he’s shown a penchant for striking hitters out, and keeping the ball in the
ballpark.
However, he doesn’t have an elite pitch mix nor have elite
velocity, so he might not be able to go through multiple times in the order at
the big league level. But he still may
have the stuff to be a decent backend starter or multi-inning bullpen arm in
the majors.
2019 Expectations – Age 27 season: Spot starter/Long man in
the majors
Future career path: Spot starter/Long man in the majors
2019 Player Rating:
2.0 star potential
10. P Genesis Cabrera – C+
2018 (AAA): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0 HR/9
2018 (AA): 8-9, 4.23 ERA, 138.1 IP, 9.43 K/9, 4.55 BB/9,
0.91 HR/9
Cabrera is a left-handed pitcher that can throw fastballs in
the mid-90s, and he has two good pitches, as he also is said to have an above
average slider. He’ll need to locate his
pitches more and continue to develop his pitches, but he could project into
being a reliable bullpen arm in the majors someday.
2019 Expectations – Age 22 season: AAA starter
Future career path: Multi-inning bullpen arm in the majors
2019 Player Rating: 2.0 star potential
11. OF Dylan Carlson – C+
2018 (A+): .247 AVG, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 6 SB, .345 OBP, .386 SLG,
.731 OPS
2018 (A): .234 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, .368 OBP, .426 SLG,
.794 OPS
Carlson is a young outfielder that fields the ball well, and
he is a patient hitter that can draw a lot of walks. He will need to improve his ability to hit
consistently, as well as his ability to drive the baseball and run on the
basepaths. If he reaches the majors
someday, he could end up being like a 4th outfielder. On the other hand, the fact that he’s zooming
up the minors means he might have more upside than he may appear to have.
2019 Expectations – Age 20 season: A+ Starter, maybe get
some at-bats in AA towards the end of the season
Future career path: 4th outfielder
2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential
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| Patrick Wisdom had a very good 2018 season, and he could be a useful power bat off the bench for the Cards in 2019. |
12. 3B Patrick Wisdom – C+
2018 (MLB): .260 AVG, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .362 OBP, .520
SLG, .882 OPS, 0.4 WAR
2018 (AAA): .288 AVG, 15 HR, 61 RBI, 11 SB, .363 OBP, .480
SLG, .843 OPS
He is a power hitting, corner infielder that has hit the
ball well in AAA the past two seasons, and he can hit the ball a ton. Wisdom played well in the majors this past
year. His batting eye has been suspect
in years’ past, and he may not have elite tools, but Wisdom could project to
excel as a power bat off the bench in 2019.
2019 Expectations – Age 27 season: Bench player in the
majors
Future career path: Bench player in the majors
2019 Player Rating:
2.0 star potential
13. OF Justin Williams – C+
2018 (MLB): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .000 OPS, 1 PA
2018 (AAA): .252 AVG, 11 HR, 57 RBI, 4 SB, .307 OBP, .379
SLG, .685 OPS
Justin Williams is an athletic, toolsy outfielder that
briefly reached the majors with Tampa Bay before being part of the Tommy Pham
trade that sent him to the St. Louis Cardinals’ organization. Williams projects to be a decent fielder, and
he has some pop in his bat, but he will need to improve his ability to hit, get
on base, and baserunning ability. Scouts
seem to be pretty high on him, but he may likely spend another season in AAA
due to the competition for roster spots in the outfield in the MLB next year.
2019 Expectations – Age 23 season: AAA starter, maybe get
called up in September
Future career path: 4th outfielder
Future career path: 4th outfielder
2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential
14. 1B Luken Baker – C+
2018 (A):.288 AVG, 3 HR, 15 RBI, .359 OBP, .417 SLG, .776
OPS
2018 (Rk): .500 AVG, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .536 OBP, .708 SLG, 1.244 OPS
2018 (Rk): .500 AVG, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .536 OBP, .708 SLG, 1.244 OPS
He is a offensive-minded first baseman that hits the ball
well, and he also has good power, as he can hit home runs. However, Baker does not run or field well,
despite having a fairly strong arm.
Therefore, he’s basically limited to playing either at 1B or DH if he
gets to the majors. His bat could allow
him to thrive in the big leagues, but it may take him awhile as his highest
level played so far was in A-ball.
2019 Expectations – Age 22 season: Good A+ ball hitter,
maybe show up at AA late in the year
Future career path: Maybe a starter or quality bench player
in the majors
2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential
15. P Steven Gingery – C+
NCAA career: 14-3, 2.23 ERA, 161.2 IP, 31 GP, 9.63 K/9, 3.34
BB/9, 0.39 HR/9
Gingery is a 4th round selection as he played at
Texas Tech, and the lefthander boasts having three pretty good pitches, which
includes having a very good changeup. He
is also noted for having good control, but he consistently throws a low 90s
fastball with a sink to it. He largely
projects to be a groundball pitcher in the majors, as he could develop into
either a backend starter or a bullpen arm that can go multiple innings.
2019 Expectations – Age 21 season: Pitch well in the lower
minors, than maybe get a call-up to AA
Future career path: Spot starter/Long man in the majors
2019 Player Rating: 2-star potential
To read which prospects rated as #16-30 and who made the honorable mention list, you can read it here. Anyways, that is all there is for now, and thank you for reading.
