Monday, October 7, 2024

Forecasting The 2024-25 St. Louis Blues’ NHL Season

I decided to preview and analyze this year’s St. Louis Blues team to see what their season could look like this year.  I assessed their preseason roster, and here is a look at who I think will make their team, as well as how their season will fare this year.

The Blues had won the Stanley Cup under then head coach Craig Berube in 2019, but the Blues have been in a slump, as they have missed the playoffs in two consecutive seasons, and they fired him midway through last season.  The new coach Drew Bannister won 30 games in 54 regular season games, while Robert Thomas scored 86 points last season, so the Blues have shown some promise for the upcoming season.  However, defenseman Torey Krug will be out, and others will need to step up in his place.  Regardless, it should be an interesting season.  

(For a reference on a previous Blues’ team, this was how I projected the 2021-22 St. Louis Blues, and I projected them as a very talented team that would lose in the second round, which was what happened that year.)  Anyways, without further ado, here is how I rate this year’s St. Louis Blues’ players and team for the 2024-25 season.


Star Players:

C Robert Thomas, LW Pavel Buchnevich, RW Jordan Kyrou

Robert Thomas is a tremendously skilled offensive center that has excelled on both ends of the ice, and he has shown that he can rack up assists in games.  Pavel Buchnevich is a skilled, two-way wing that has steadily been one of the Blues’ top point-getters.  Jordan Kyrou is a very skilled offensive player that has really excelled at producing for the Blues, but he will need to continue to improve on the offensive end.  All three amongst them are All-Star candidates, and Robert Thomas seems to be the surest bet amongst all of the Blues’ players to make the NHL All-Star team in 2025.


Robert Thomas scored 86 points and was quietly one of the best players in the NHL last season, but the Blues finished 5th in the Central Division in 2024 and missed the playoffs last year.  Still, Thomas is an emerging star that should be a fun player to watch this season.  (Photo: Scott Rovak/NHLI via Getty Images, via St. Louis Game Time)

The St. Louis Blues' Forwards (14):

RW/C Robert Thomas
2024 (STL): 82 GP, 26 G, 60 A, 86 PTS, +9, 48 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50.7%

Thomas is a skilled, two-way forward that plays on both ends of the floor.  He is a tremendously skilled passer that can dig out pucks, and he has proved himself to be one of the best players in the NHL.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 4 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 1st Line Center

LW/RW Pavel Buchnevich
2024 (STL): 80 GP, 27 G, 36 A, 63 PTS, +3, 48 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 52.8%

Buchnevich is a skilled scorer that also is willing to dig pucks out to help his team on both ends of the ice.  He has been a steady, very solid presence for the Blues on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 1st line Winger

RW Jordan Kyrou
2024 (STL): 82 GP, 31 G, 36 A, 67 PTS, -12, 22 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 52.3%

Kyrou is a very skilled scorer that does a very good job of putting pucks in the net, and setting up his teammates so that can do so, too.  He’s a skilled goal scorer and playmaker that has shown strong offensive skills in this league.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 1st Line Winger

LW/C Brayden Schenn
2024 (STL): 82 GP, 20 G, 26 A, 46 PTS, -22, 56 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 45.8%

Schenn is an offensively skilled forward that excels at scoring, and he also is a solid playmaker and defender.  He can play either at center or out on the wing, and he is a versatile playmaker that projects to be a solid top two line forward this season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2025 Role: Top 6 Forward

LW Jake Neighbours

2024 (STL): 77 GP, 27 G, 11 A, 38 PTS, -16, 21 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 45.1%

Jake Neighbors is a gifted scorer that does a tremendous job of putting the puck in the net, and he does a very good job of helping his team score goals.  He is a 21-year old forward that has a vast amount of upside, and he has the skills to be a perennial NHL All-Star in the future.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars (4 stars potential)
Projected 2025 Role: Top 9 Forward

LW Brandon Saad
2024 (STL): 82 GP, 26 G, 16 A, 42 PTS, -4, 20 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 43.9%

Saad is a skilled forward that can help score around the net, and can pass the puck. He’s a versatile forward that has proven to be a reliable presence at forward.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

LW Zachary Bolduc

2024 (STL): 25 GP, 5 G, 4 A, 9 PTS, +0, 6 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 43.1%

Zachary Bolduc is a very skilled, two-way winger that can do a variety of things for the Blues.  He is a 21-year old forward that has a lot of upside, and he could be a top line forward in the future.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars (3.5 stars potential)
Projected 2025 Role: 3rd or 4th Line Forward

2024 (OTT): 72 GP, 11 G, 24 A, 35 PTS, -4, 51 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 48.5

Mathieu Joseph has continued to improve as a forward in this league, and he is a skilled playmaker that can pass the puck, and has the potential to be a very solid winger on both ends of the ice.  He could be expected to net plenty of playing time this season, and if he can continue to build on from last season, he could be a solid forward this year.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2025 Role: Top 9 Forward

2024 (CBJ): 78 GP, 12 G, 18 A, 30 PTS, -5, 38 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 48.9%

Texier is a skilled forward that can pass the puck or put some pucks in the net.  He’ll help the team offensively, but he isn’t very good at faceoffs, so he may be more suited to playing out on the wing.  Still, his versatility and skill set may make him a solid player on the one of the back two lines for this team.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 3rd or 4th Line Forward

2024 (DAL): 74 GP, 7 G, 12 A, 19 PTS, +0, 20 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 54.2%

Faksa is a veteran, puck possessing center that can win faceoffs.  He’s not expected to be a big point getter, but he’s shown he can contribute as a playmaking, defensive-minded center that can help the team with puck possession.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 3rd or 4th Line Center

2024 (STL): 82 GP, 14 G, 7 A, 21 PTS, -3, 30 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 40.0%

He is a big, physical forward that could contribute as a back line winger on the Blues team this year, and can be an intimidating presence, as he also can put the puck in the net.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 3rd or 4th Line Forward

2024 (EDM): 38 GP, 6 G, 3 A, 9 PTS, -1, 29 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 59.2%

Holloway is a defensive-minded center that has shown strong puck possession skills in this league, and while he has not seemed to contribute as much in relation to scoring, he has the skills to be a solid mid-line forward in this league.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)
Projected 2025 Role: 4th Line Forward

2024 (STL): 73 GP, 6 G, 16 A, 22 PTS, -5, 14 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 45.8%

Kapanen is a back-line forward that can provide some depth and versatility to this team.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars
Projected 2025 Role: Depth Forward

2024 (STL): 71 GP, 6 G, 15 A, 21 PTS, -6, 32 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 38.8%

He was a valued member of the 2020 St. Louis Blues team, and he is a defensive minded forward that has some scoring skills, but his numbers have declined and he’s struggled with injuries.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars
Projected 2025 Role: Depth Forward

The St. Louis Blues' Defensemen (8*, 7 Healthy Defenseman):



Justin Faulk has been a fairly solid defenseman for the Blues and will likely be their best defenseman this season, but while the Blues have plenty of serviceable role players, they seem to be missing an elite defenseman from their roster that they have had years ago.  (Photo: Getty Images, via NHLPA)

D Justin Faulk
2024 (STL): 60 GP, 2 G, 28 A, 30 PTS, -2, 39 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.2%

He is an offensively skilled defensive man that has struggled at times defensively, but he projects to be arguably the Blues’ best defenseman, or at least one of their best defensemen for the upcoming season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2025 Role: Top 6 Defenseman

D Nick Leddy

2024 (STL): 82 GP, 3 G, 25 A, 28 PTS, +14, 14 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 44.1%

Nick Leddy is a solid, reliable defenseman, especially on the defensive end.  His veteran expertise and skill set should help stabilize the Blues for the upcoming season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2025 Role: Top 6 Defenseman

D Colton Parayko
2024 (STL): 82 GP, 10 G, 16 A, 26 PTS, +4, 23 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 43.8%

Parayko is a tall, hard-shot defenseman that can excel on both ends of the ice, but has been inconsistent at times.  Still, he is a talented player that should be one of the best defensemen on the Blues’ team this year.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Defenseman

2024 (EDM): 12 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PTS, -3, 0 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 49.5%

He is a young defenseman that didn’t play much on a very good Oilers team last year, but he is a puck-moving defenseman that can defend, and he could see plenty of ice time with the Blues this season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars (2.5 stars potential)
Projected 2025 Role: Top 6 Defenseman

D Torey Krug
2024 (STL): 77 GP, 4 G, 35 A, 39 PTS, -31, 32 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 48%

He is an offensively skilled, but undersized defenseman that was once one of the best defensemen in the NHL, but he is currently injured and will likely miss the entire 2024-25 NHL season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars

Projected 2025 Role: Injured Reserve, Out for the Season

D Ryan Suter

2024 (DAL): 82 GP, 2 G, 15 A, 17 PTS, +14, 28 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 51%

He is a savvy, veteran defenseman that has had a very long career, and he is a skilled puck mover and defenseman that will provide wisdom for the Blues this season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 3rd Pairing or Depth Defenseman 

D Pierre-Olivier Joseph

2024 (PIT): 52 GP, 2 G, 9 A, 11 PTS, -3, 14 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 49%

He is a mid-tier defenseman that can move the puck and defend, and he will likely play some minutes on the Blues this season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 3rd Pairing or Depth Defenseman 

D Scott Perunovich

2024 (STL): 54 GP, 0 G, 17 A, 17 PTS, +1, 12 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 48.2% 

He is a mid-tier defenseman that can move the puck and defend, and he will likely play some minutes on the Blues this season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2025 Role: 3rd Pairing or Depth Defenseman 

The St. Louis Blues' Goalies (2):


Jordan Binnington rebounded from a disastrous 2023 season by having a quietly solid 2024 season, and Binnington is an above average goaltender in the NHL right no.  That said, his sterling 2019 run to help the Blues win the Stanley Cup and 2020 All-Star appearance seems almost like a lifetime ago.

(Photo: Jeff Curry/USA Today Sports, via Buffa’s Buffet Substack)

G Jordan Binnington
2024 (STL): 57 GP, 28-21-5, 2.84 GAA, 91.3 SV%, 90 GA%-

He was one of the best young goalies, and he was able to lead the Blues to win the 2019 Stanley Cup as a rookie goaltender.  He’s fallen off a bit in the years following his Stanley Cup win, but Binnington rebounded from a lackluster 2023 campaign with a solid 2024 season, and has been a fairly solid netminder recently. 

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2025 Role: Starting Goaltender

2024 (STL): 30 GP, 15-12-1, 2.65 GAA, 91.3 SV%, 90 GA%-

He is a tall, young goalie that played well in a backup role, and he could challenge Binnington for a starting spot this year, and he has a bright future in St. Louis.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2 stars (3.5 stars potential)
Projected 2025 Role: Backup Goaltender

The St. Louis Blues' Head Coach:


Drew Bannister did a commendable job as the interim head coach last season, and he is hoping to build off of that to try to get the Blues to the playoffs in 2025.

2021 (STL): 54 GP, 30-19-0-5, 65 PTS, 0-0 in the playoffs
Coaching Career: 54 GP, 30-19-0-5, 65 PTS, 0-0 in the playoffs

After Berube was surprisingly fired by the Blues after a couple of lukewarm seasons following his 2019 Stanley Cup win with the Blues, Drew Bannister was hired as the interim head coach, and he did a good job of motivating the Blues to win more games than expected down the stretches.  The Blues didn’t quite make the playoffs in 2024, but Bannister proved to be a more than capable head coach that has sound tactics, and the Blues rewarded him by making him the full-time head coach for the upcoming season.

Expected 2025 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars (3.5 stars potential)

Projected 2025 Role: Head Coach of the St. Louis Blues

The 2024-25 St. Louis Blues’ Projected Lines:

Forwards:

1st Line:

Pavel Buchnevich (LW), Robert Thomas (C), Jordan Kyrou (RW)

2nd Line:

Jake Neighbours (LW), Brayden Schenn (C), Brandon Saad (RW)

3rd Line:

Zachary Bolduc (LW), Radek Faksa (C), Mathieu Joseph (RW)

4th Line:

Alexandre Texier (LW), Dylan Holloway (C), Alexey Toropchenko (RW)

Defensemen:

1st Pairing:

Nick Leddy (LD), Justin Faulk (RD)

2nd Pairing:

Philip Broberg (LD), Colton Parayko (RD)

3rd Pairing:

Pierre-Olivier Joseph (LD), Ryan Suter (RD)

Goalies:

1. Jordan Binnington

2. Joel Hofer

Healthy Scratches:

D Scott Perunovich

F Kasperi Kapanen

F Oskar Sundqvist

Injured Reserve

Torey Krug

The St. Louis Blues’ 2025 Forecast and Grades:

Forwards: B
Defensemen: C
Goalies: C+
Head Coach: B

Overall: B-

The St. Louis Blues’ 2022 Season Projection:

Ceiling (Peak Projection): 2nd Round Playoff Exit
Floor (Lowest Level Outcome): Miss The Playoffs
Most Likely Season Outcome: Barely Miss The Playoffs

The Blues’ chances to win it all this year are not very high at all.  According to VegasInsider.com, in looking at where various sites rate their Blues’ chances, they have the St. Louis Blues going anywhere from being a 50-to-1 to a 75-to-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup in 2025.  And as the Blues have only won one Stanley Cup in their entire NHL history dating back to 1967, it doesn’t seem like it would be a very good bet to bet on the Blues to win the Cup in 2025, unless if you have a lot of money at your disposal and also feel like that would be a good bet.

As a Blues’ fan, I was tempted to rate this team as a playoff team in 2025, but after looking carefully at the group of defensemen and goalies, and as they don’t have an elite player at either position, especially with Binnington no longer the elite goalie that he was five years ago, it seems likely that the Blues could miss the playoffs once again this season in the tough and competitive Western Conference.  From a fan perspective, I’m inclined to rate the 2025 Blues’ team as a future playoff team, but after examining their roster extensively, especially in regards to their defense, objectively, I think this team probably will wind up missing the playoffs.

The Blues will be competitive, and they have a solid first two lines, as Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, and Brayden Schenn should provide the bulk of their scoring this season.  However, I’m concerned about their defense, and their lack of high-end talent at the other positions.  This team doesn’t seem to be as deep as the previous teams from 2019-22, but the Blues should compete for a back end playoff spot, and they will be entertaining to watch, especially at home.

They also have a couple of solid prospects that could get call-ups.  Dalibor Dvorsky is a 19-year old center that had a tremendous season in the WHL last year and has NHL All-Star potential, and Aleksanteri Kaskimaki is a 20-year old center that held his own in the tough SM-Liiga in Finland last season.  Also, 23-year old defenseman, Samuel Johannesson is a very skilled, offensive minded defenseman that played very well in the SHL, and he has the ability to make an immediate impact in the NHL.  Also, 6-4, 21-year old center Dylan Peterson is a two-way center that could project to be a solid mid-tier forward at the NHL level.

As for those that I have as barely missing the roster, the roster crunch probably will have Dvorsky and Johannesson start out in the minors, presumably in the WHL and AHL respectively, but Dvorsky could end up playing 9 games similar to Jake Neighbours did back in the 2021-22 season, when he was a 19-year old professional hockey player.  Also, Nathan Walker is another player that could possibly make the roster, as he is a versatile, defensive-minded forward that also is solid at winning face-offs.  Matthew Kessel is a defensive defenseman that could see some playing time in the big leagues this season.

For me, I'll stay optimistic at the St. Louis Blues' chances while trying to keep a healthy dose of realism at the same time.   Realistically speaking, this team probably won’t win the Stanley Cup, but if you’re a fan like me, it still would be a good experience to attend at least one or more hockey games at the Enterprise Center this season.

Anyways, thanks for reading, and the NHL season will begin tomorrow on October 8th.  Thanks for reading.