Saturday, October 2, 2021

Forecasting the 2021-22 St. Louis Blues' NHL Season

As the season is about to start soon, I will look at the 2021-22 St. Louis Blues’ team and preview them to see how their roster is shaping up.  They won the 2019 Stanley Cup, and have been a solid playoff team since then.  They have made strong moves in the offseason, and they have picked up strong scoring forwards in Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad through trades and free agency in the offseason.  I also went to Cap FriendlyHockeydb.com, and Hockey-Reference for research purposes in trying to decide who would likely make the St. Louis Blues' team this year.

Here is a look at the players that will most likely be on their team this season.

Ryan O'Reilly is one of the best players in the NHL, and he is a strong all-around forward that could lead the St. Louis Blues to another title run in 2022.
(Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images, via the Los Angeles Times)

The St. Louis Blues' Forwards (14):

C Ryan O’Reilly
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 24 G, 30 A, 54 PTS, +26, 18 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 53.2%

Ryan O’Reilly is a very good, first-line center that has strong all-around skills.  He is a gifted scorer that passes well and can put the puck in the net, and he is also a gritty player that plays shut down defense.  He is terrific at handling faceoffs, and he is a leader that will guide this team to many victories. 

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 4.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 1st line center

LW/RW David Perron
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 19 G, 39 A, 58 PTS, +6, 22 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 52.1%

David Perron is a skilled, pesky winger whose been a consistent scorer for the last few years.  He has good chemistry with Ryan O’Reilly, and he is a solid two-way forward that plays well on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 4 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

LW/RW Pavel Buchnevich
2021 (NYR): 54 GP, 20 G, 28 A, 48 PTS, +12, 42 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 46.7%

Buchnevich is a skilled scorer that also is willing to dig pucks out to help his team on both ends of the ice.  He is coming off a terrific season, and he will likely be a great addition for the Blues this year.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

LW/C Brayden Schenn
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 16 G, 20 A, 36 PTS, -2, 35 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.3%

Schenn is a skilled, two-way forward that excels at scoring, and he also is a solid playmaker and defender.  He can play either at center or out on the wing, and he is a versatile playmaker that projects to be a solid top two line forward this season.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

RW Vladimir Tarasenko
2021 (STL): 24 GP, 4 G, 10 A, 14 PTS, -7, 0 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.7%

Tarasenko is a super skilled winger that can really put the puck in the net, and he can be a very good, two-way forward when he’s on the ice.  However, he’s had trouble staying on the ice as he’s been injured a lot in the past two seasons, which is concerning.  When he’s on his game, he’s a definite All-Star and top-line forward.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

LW Brandon Saad
2021 (COL): 44 GP, 15 G, 9 A, 24 PTS, +1, 12 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 57.1%

Saad helps replace Jaden Schwartz, and he is a bigger forward that can help score around the net.  He’ll help control possession, and then provide some scoring.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

RW/C Robert Thomas
2021 (STL): 33 GP, 3 G, 9 A, 12 PTS, +1, 10 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 49.3%

Thomas is a skilled, two-way forward that plays on both ends of the floor.  He is a very good passer that can dig out pucks, and he also is a solid passer and defensive player when he is on the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars (3.5 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

RW Jordan Kyrou
2021 (STL): 55 GP, 14 G, 21 A, 35 PTS, +1, 12 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50.8%

Kyrou is a very skilled scorer that does a very good job of putting pucks in the net, and setting up his teammates so that can do so, too.  He’s a skilled playmaker that is on the verge of a breakthrough season, and he may have definite top line potential as a winger in this league.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars (3.5 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

C Tyler Bozak
2021 (STL): 31 GP, 5 G, 12 A, 17 PTS, -3, 10 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 42.8%

Bozak is a solid center that does a good job of passing the puck, and he is an offensively skilled playmaker that does a very good job of winning faceoffs. He’ll need to improve his puck possession and defense, but he is a solid second tier center in this league.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

C Oskar Sundqvist
2021 (STL): 28 GP, 4 G, 5 A, 9 PTS, -6, 14 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 40.9%

He is a defensive forward that is one of the best penalty killers on the Blues’ team.  He also can score and provide some offense, but he is mostly there to provide strong defense when he is on the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

C Ivan Barbashev
2021 (STL): 38 GP, 5 G, 7 A, 12 PTS, +5, 6 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.8%

He is a solid mid-tier forward that can provide some scoring and solid defensive skills on the ice.  He’s not really a puck carrier, but he has shown that he can play well on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

LW Kyle Clifford
2021 (STL): 50 GP, 4 G, 3 A, 7 PTS, -5, 30 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.8%

Kyle Clifford is a back line winger that does a very good job of possessing the puck.  He’s not really a scorer, but he can provide some playmaking skills and toughness on the back lines. 

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

LW Mackenzie MacEachern
2021 (STL): 21 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, +3, 8 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50%

He’s a tough, backline winger that can provide some defense and puck movement.  He’s not a scorer, but he is a forward that will play hard and compete on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

LW Klim Kostin
2021 (STL): 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PTS, -1, 0 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50%
2021 (KHL): 43 GP, 7 G, 11 A, 18 PTS, +6, 50 PIM

He is a tough, feisty winger that can put the puck in the net, and he also has some playmaking and defensive skills.  He’ll need to stay out of the box more, but he could be a solid candidate for the back lines this year.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward, or 1st Line AHL forward

While St. Louis Blues' fans may undoubtedly miss the veteran presence of Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester, who were a really good defensive tandem that helped the Blues win the 2019 Stanley Cup, Torey Krug is a speedy, feisty defenseman that is one of the best at his position in the NHL right now.
(Photo: Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images, via The Hockey Writers) 

The St. Louis Blues' Defensemen (7):

D Torey Krug
2021 (STL): 51 GP, 2 G, 30 A, 32 PTS, +11, 25 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 53.9%

He is a feisty, two-way defender that excels at making plays on both ends of the ice.  He is a very good passer and defender, and while he is undersized and is not a heavy hitter, and he is a very good offensive defenseman that has consistently played well in this league.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 4 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Justin Faulk
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 7 G, 18 A, 25 PTS, +11, 35 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 48.5%

He got off to a slow start when he first got traded, but he really bounced back in his second year with the Blues.  He finally hit his stride, because he got a steady role as a top 4 defenseman.  He’s solid on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Colton Parayko
2021 (STL): 32 GP, 2 G, 10 A, 12 PTS, -2, 14 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 46.5%

Parayko is a tall, hard-shot defenseman that has been mostly used a shutdown defender in the last couple of years, so his offensive production has taken a hit.  He could chip in offensively if they need him, because he has one of the hardest shots in hockey.  

I'm a firm believer in his abilities, and he is a vastly talented defenseman that can play really well on both ends of the ice, but he's taken a hit statistically over the years because he mostly has been used as a shutdown defenseman that plays against the opponents' top players in the defensive zones.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Marco Scandella
2021 (STL): 49 GP, 3 G, 6 A, 9 PTS, +14, 24 PIM. , Even Strength Corsi: 44.1%

He is a steady, defensive defenseman.  He has good chemistry with Parayko, and he is a good position defender.  He’s limited offensively, but he doesn’t do too many careless things with the puck, and he tends to make decisions in games.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Robert Bortuzzo
2021 (STL): 40 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 PTS, -3, 47 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50.2%

He is a right-shot, hard-hitting defenseman that provides a physical presence for the team.  He is a tough, gritty player that isn’t afraid to lay out the big, heavy hits.  Sometimes, that will land him in the box, but he is a good player to have on the third pairing.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 3rd Pairing Defenseman

D Niko Mikkola
2021 (STL): 30 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PTS, -11, 11 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 43.3%

He is a young defenseman with size and some mobility.  He’s generally been pretty solid defensively.  He hasn’t provided quite as much on offense, but he could be a solid back pairing defenseman. 

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: 3rd Pairing Defenseman

D Jake Walman
2021 (STL): 24 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, -7, 8 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50.6%

He is also a young defenseman, and he provides puck movement and some offensive skills.  He’s adequate on the defensive end, as he’s not a liability, but he’s also not nearly as physical as Bortuzzo or Mikkola.  If the team needs some more speed or skill, Walman could sub in for either Bortozzo or Mikkola.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: 3rd Pairing Defenseman

When Jordan Binnington is on his game, he can be an unstoppable force in the net.  He had a tremendous year in 2019, but he's been a bit inconsistent recently as the team's starting goaltender since then.
(Photo: Joe Puetz/NHLI via Getty Images, via Fansided's Puck Prose)

The St. Louis Blues' Goalies (2):

G Jordan Binnington
2021 (STL): 18-14-8, 2.65 GAA, 91 SV%

He was one of the best young goalies, and he was able to lead the Blues to win the 2019 Stanley Cup as a rookie goaltender.  He’s been a little bit inconsistent lately since the Stanley Cup win, but when he’s on, he can be one of the best goalies in the league. 

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 1st string goalie

G Ville Husso
2021 (STL): 9-6-1, 3.20 GAA, 89.3 SV%

After spending years in the minors, despite having a strong track record prior to being selected in the NHL draft, Husso finally came up last year, but was fairly underwhelming overall as a rookie.  He got off to a really slow start, but he started to get a little more comfortable as the season progressed.  He ended up with a good win percentage, even though his other metrics were less than desirable.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: Backup goalie

Craig Berube had a terrific first season with the St. Louis Blues, as he led them to win the Stanley Cup in 2019, but the Blues have been bounced early in the playoffs for the past two seasons.
(Photo: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press, via KSDK)

Head Coach:
Craig Berube
2021 (STL): 27-20-9, 0-4 in the playoffs
Coaching Career: 107-58-25, 18-21 in his playoff career, won the 2019 Stanley Cup

Craig Berube stormed onto the scene as an interim coach during the middle of the 2019 season to take over a then-floundering Blues squad, and he engineered a comeback to not only right the ship, but to guide them to a 2019 Stanley Cup championship.

He’s a good motivator that connects well with players.  Tactically, he did a masterful job in 2019, but his coaching decisions could be regarded as kind of questionable since then, as he doesn’t always make adjustments in the middle of the game.  He undoubtedly had his strongest playoff run in 2019, but the Blues were swept by the Colorado Avalanche in 2021, and they have been very disappointing in the playoffs in the past two seasons.

He may be at a crossroads in his career, as this could either be his chance to redeem himself as one of the best coaches in this league, or he may just be an average coach that got hot at the right time.  Because he led the Blues to win their first ever title, he will likely be the Blues’ head coach for a long time.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Head Coach of the St. Louis Blues

The 2021-22 St. Louis Blues’ Projected Lines:

Forwards:

1st Line:

David Perron (LW), Ryan O’Reilly (C), Jordan Kyrou (RW)

2nd Line:

Pavel Buchnevich (LW), Brayden Schenn (C), Vladimir Tarasenko (RW)

3rd Line:

Brandon Saad (LW), Tyler Bozak (C), Robert Thomas (RW)

4th Line:

Ivan Barbashev (LW), Oskar Sundqvist (C), Kyle Clifford (RW)

Defensemen:

1st Pairing:

Torey Krug (LD), Justin Faulk (RD)

2nd Pairing:

Marco Scandella (LD), Colton Parayko (RD)

3rd Pairing:

Niko Mikkola (LD), Robert Bortuzzo (RD)

Goalies:

1. Jordan Binnington

2. Ville Husso

Healthy Scratches:

F Mackenzie MacEachern
F Klim Kostin
D Jake Walman

The St. Louis Blues’ 2022 Forecast and Grades:

Forwards: A-
Defensemen: B
Goalies: B
Head Coach: B

Overall: B+

The St. Louis Blues’ 2022 Season Projection:

Ceiling (Peak Projection): Win the 2022 Stanley Cup Championship
Floor (Lowest Level Outcome): 1st Round Playoff Exit
Most Likely Season Outcome: 2nd Round Playoff Exit

Overall, the 2022 St. Louis Blues looks to be a very good team, at least on paper.  They’ll still face stiff competition from other teams in this league, and head coach Craig Berube will need to demonstrate his coaching chops in order to help the Blues make a title run in the playoffs (or at least a deep run in the postseason) this season.  Otherwise, all of the moves could be for naught if it leads to another early playoff exit just like in the past two seasons.

As for what everyone else expects out of this team, Vegas Insider doesn’t seem to be very confident at all in the Blues’ chances to win the Cup in 2022.  It has the Blues at 35 to 1 odds.  It has the Colorado Avalanche as the favorite at 6 to 1 odds.  For diehard fans who have the disposable income gamble on sports games, if they wish to place bets on hockey, it could be an interesting strategic move for Blues fans to place money down on their team to win the title.  

While I feel Vegas Insider underrates the Blues considerably, it also means that the hockey fans in the rest of the country may not view the Blues as optimistically as I do.  Anyways, I’m excited for the upcoming season, and it will be fun to watch the Blues play this year.  I’m hoping they can win the Stanley Cup this season.  

For me, I'll stay optimistic at the St. Louis Blues' chances while trying to keep a healthy dose of realism at the same time. The Blues have a very good team, but I'm also well aware that there is plenty of competition, and that the Blues have won only one title in their 54-year history so far, so the odds may not be very high.  Anyways, it will be an exciting season, and I'll be rooting for the St. Louis Blues hard once again this year.  Thank you for reading.

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