Alan's Music and Stuff: October 2021

Thursday, October 21, 2021

My Picks for the NBA's Top 75 of All-Time

The NBA released the final, third part of their top 75 list today.
(Photo: NBA.com)

Today, I decided to compose a list of which players would make my NBA’s All-Time Top 75 list in the history of the 75-year history of the league. I looked to Basketball-Reference and at Marc Stein’s list through his Substack to do my research. It’s tough to compare eras, as some decades didn’t even have the three-point line, and with the web being introduced later in the 20th century, more information and analytics have come so that players would be equipped more with statistical knowledge and ideas to improve their scoring efficiency and games.

Ultimately, I opted to take a look at 9 factors to determine greatness amongst players in the history of the NBA.

These factors were:

1) Regular Season Win Shares,
2) Playoff Win Shares,
3) NBA (and ABA) Titles,
4) NBA MVPs,
5) NBA Finals MVPs,
6) NBA All-Star Appearances,
7) All-NBA Teams (and All-ABA teams for older players),
8) All-Defensive Teams,

and

9) Career NBA PER.

Using the statistical formula to rank a pool of over 100 candidates to consider, here is my list of the all-time, top 75 players in that played in the history of the NBA. Some of the players didn’t have enough longevity, and some players didn’t quite have as many accolades as the others, so some very good players ended up getting omitted from my list.

Here is my All-Time top 75 NBA’s Greatest Players (in no particular older):

Artis Gilmore (did not actually get in)

Dwight Howard (did not actually get in)

Pau Gasol (did not actually get in)

Kevin McHale

Dan Issel (did not actually get in)

Giannis Antetokounmpo

George Gervin

Chauncey Billups (did not actually get in)

Isiah Thomas

Anthony Davis

Tony Parker (did not actually get in)

Allen Iverson

Chris Bosh (did not actually get in)

Bill Sharman

Manu Ginóbili (did not actually get in)

Tracy McGrady (did not actually get in)

Dikembe Mutombo (did not actually get in)

Ben Wallace (did not actually get in)

Alonzo Mourning (did not actually get in)

Kyrie Irving (did not actually get in)

#NBA75

Using the strict criteria of the 9 factors above in a pool of 142 players, the players above are the 75 that made my all-time NBA greats list. Unfortunately, that means there are still some very good players that ended up getting left off.

Active NBA Players That Made My All-Time Top 75 List (12):

LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Chris Paul
Stephen Curry
James Harden
Kawhi Leonard
Russell Westbrook
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Anthony Davis
Carmelo Anthony
Dwight Howard - didn't actually make the NBA's 75
Kyrie Irving - didn't actually make the NBA's 75

Unfortunately, I ended up getting rid of the some of the “50 Greatest Players in NBA History,” because they did not end up in the top 75 overall after weighing those nine factors equally. The players I cut from that list were:

Original Top 50 Players that did not make my Top 75, but made the NBA's 75 (11):

Jerry Lucas

Wes Unseld

Billy Cunningham

Nate “Tiny” Archibald

Among looking at Marc Stein’s list, what we had in common is that from the original 50 guys, we both omitted Dave Bing, Billy Cunningham, Jerry Lucas, Nate Thurmond, and Lenny Wilkins from our top 75 lists.

39 of the NBA’s “50 Greatest Players in NBA History” made my top 75 list, and 12 active players that are still in the NBA also made my 75 list. I had fun making this list, and they have just announced the NBA's 75.

The NBA's 75 Greatest Players can be found via Sham Charania's Tweet here.

62 of the players I picked ended up making the NBA's 75 list.

There were several new players that made the top 75 that I did not pick that were not on the original 50 (all of the original 50 made it):

Damian Lillard
Dennis Rodman
Bob McAdoo

All three of those players are very good players. Lillard is one of the best players in today's NBA, and Dennis Rodman is the rebounding king, and was a star on some of my favorite NBA teams, most notably on the 1996 Chicago Bulls, which was arguably the best in NBA history. Somehow, they didn't end up in my top 75 of the nine factors I came up with to come up with my own 75, but those three are well-deserving of being in the NBA's 75 as well.

Anyways, I had fun making this list. Thanks for reading.

Saturday, October 9, 2021

Evaluating the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals, part II: The Hitting and Managing

The St. Louis Cardinals had a very good ride as they made a strong late push to get into the postseason. They won 17 straight games en route to making it to the postseason to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2021 NL Wildcard game. It was going to be a very tough one-game playoff. The Cardinals had their best pitcher on the mound in Adam Wainwright, but the Dodgers also had their best pitcher in Max Scherzer, so it was going to be a pitcher’s duel.

The Dodgers had won 16 more games in the regular season, and they had won 106 games, so it was going to be a very tough game for the Cardinals to win. The Cardinals were able to get the upper hand early, but the tide really seemed to turn for the worse when Dodgers’ third baseman Justin Turner hit a home run off of Adam Wainwright in the fourth inning to tie the game at 1 apiece. The Cardinals struggled to score later on, and some curious bullpen moves were made as the Dodgers ended up winning on a walk-off homer late in the ninth inning.

The Cardinals’ 2021 season is now officially over. That begs the question, so how did everyone do?

I looked up information using Baseball-Reference. For the WAR statistical metric, I went to Fangraphs for that.

St. Louis Cardinals' starting catcher, Yadier Molina made his 10th All-Star team in the majors, and he also became the sixth player ever to catch 2000 games while being the first to do so with one team.

(Photo: Jeff Roberson/Associated Press, via The Philadelphia Inquirer)

C Yadier Molina
2021 (STL): .252 AVG, 11 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB, .297 OBP, .370 SLG, .667 OPS, 5.1 BB%, 16.7 K%, 41 CS%, 1.0 WAR, made the 2021 NL All-Star team
2021 (Playoffs): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .000 OBP, .000 SLG, .000 OPS, 0 BB%, 0 K%, 0 CS%

Yadier Molina had a much bigger impact for his team that the box score statistics may have suggested. He called a great game continuously throughout the season, and he showed great leadership skills in leading his team and the pitchers. He also did a very good job of throwing runners out in the regular season. His offensive production may have slowed down a bit over the years, but his defense and signal calling is still very good, and he did a good job of driving runners in this year.

2021 Player Grade: A-
2022 Player Rating: 3 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting catcher of the St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals' first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt had a very good season this year in 2021.
(Photo: Getty Images, via CBS Sports)

1B Paul Goldschmidt
2021 (STL): .284 AVG, 31 HR, 99 RBI, 12 SB, .365 OBP, .514 SLG, .879 OPS, 9.9 BB%, 20.0 K%, 4.9 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): .333 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .600 OBP, .333 SLG, .933 OPS

Goldschmidt played very well, as he hit the ball really well this year, and he consistently shined on offense this year. His only significant mishap came late in the Wildcard game, when he struck out by being caught looking on three pitches with Tommy Edman stranded on second base late in the ninth inning.

2021 Player Grade: A-
2022 Player Rating: 4 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting First Baseman of the St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals' starting second baseman, Tommy Edman quietly had a very good season, and he was terrific for the Cards in the postseason.

(Photo: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images, via Viva El Birdos)

2B Tommy Edman
2021 (STL): .262 AVG, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 30 SB, .308 OBP, .387 SLG, .695 OPS, 5.5 BB%, 13.7 K%, 2.3 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): .600 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 SB, .600 OBP, .600 SLG, 1.200 OPS, 0 BB%, 20 K%

Tommy Edman played very well for the Cards in 2021. He showed a good approach to the plate, as he would make pitchers work the count, and he is a speedy middle infielder that excelled as a baserunner and fielder this year. He was very valuable in the playoffs, as he consistently got on base by getting base hits, he also did great work on the base paths by stealing bases, and he made numerous stops with his glove in the field. Overall, he had a very good season this year.

2021 Player Grade: A-
2022 Player Rating: 3 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting Shortstop of the St. Louis Cardinals

Nolan Arenado had a solid season with the Cardinals, and he was especially good with the glove this year.
(Photo: Rich Schultz/Getty Images, via Denver Fan)

3B Nolan Arenado
2021 (STL): .255 AVG, 34 HR, 105 RBI, 2 SB, .312 OBP, .494 SLG, .807 OPS, 7.7 BB%, 14.7 K%, 4.0 WAR, made the 2021 NL All-Star team
2021 (Playoffs):.000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 BB%, 0 K%

Nolan Arenado proved that he can hit outside of Colorado, as he did a good job of hitting, and for power, and he also did a tremendous job with the glove on the defensive end. While his offensive production was a bit down, he did not disappoint as he brought stellar defense to this team. He didn’t come through in the playoffs though, but the Cards faced a really tough Dodgers’ squad this year.

2021 Player Grade: B
2022 Player Rating: 4 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting Third Baseman of the St. Louis Cardinals

SS Edmondo Sosa
2021 (STL): .271 AVG, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 4 SB, .346 OBP, .389 SLG, .735 OPS, 5.2 BB%, 19.3 K%, 1.6 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 BB%, 25 K%

He took over in the second half at the shortstop position after Paul DeJong really struggled to hit on offense, and Sosa was a pleasant surprise for the Cards this season. He did a good job of hitting the baseball.

On the other hand, he struggled to make plays with the glove in the Wildcard game on defense due to having the jitters, but he was able to find his footing, and it didn’t seem to hurt the team that much. Overall, Sosa’s future looks to be pretty bright with the Cardinals.

2021 Player Grade: B+
2022 Player Rating: 2.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Platoon Shortstop with the St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals' outfielder, Tyler O'Neill had a terrific season, as he hit for a .286 batting average, hit 34 home runs, and also provided stellar defense throughout the regular season. With his tremendous 2021 season that he had, O'Neill arguably has positioned himself to be one of the best left fielders in baseball today.
(Photo: Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press, via St. Louis Post Dispatch)

LF Tyler O’Neill
2021 (STL): .286 AVG, 34 HR, 80 RBI, 15 SB, .352 OBP, .560 SLG, .912 OPS, 7.1 BB%, 31.3 K%, 5.4 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 SB, .200 OBP, .000 SLG, .200 OPS, 20 BB%, 60 K%

Tyler O’Neill had a much better year than expected. Not only did he continue to show a stellar glove in the field, but he also had a very good year offensively as well. He hit for a high average, and he hit for a whopping 34 homers while stealing 15 bags. He was a whiff machine though, as he still strikes out a lot, and that was magnified more in the playoffs, but overall O’Neill turned in a very good 2021 season.

2021 Player Grade: A-
2022 Player Rating: 4 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting Left Fielder of the St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals' outfielder Harrison Bader (pictured in the middle) had a very good all-around season, and he and O'Neill are two of the best defensive outfielders in all of baseball right now.

(Photo: Justin Berl/Getty Images, via Redbird Rants)

CF Harrison Bader
2021 (STL): .267 AVG, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 9 SB, .324 OBP, .460 SLG, .785 OPS, 6.7 BB%, 21.2 K%, 3.4 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .750 OBP, .000 SLG, .750 OPS, 25 BB%, 25 K%

Harrison Bader had a solid season this year. He did a better job of hitting the baseball, and he fielded very well defensively. He did a great job of getting on base in the postseason, and he quietly played well this season.

2021 Player Grade: A-
2022 Player Rating: 3 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting Center Fielder of the St. Louis Cardinals

RF Dylan Carlson
2021 (STL): .266 AVG, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB, .343 OBP, .437 SLG, .780 OPS, 9.2 BB%, 24.6 K%, 2.8 WAR
2021 (Playoffs):.250 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .250 OBP, .250 SLG, .500 OPS, 0 BB%, 25 K%

Dylan Carlson was a player that continually got better as the season progressed. He is a solid all-around outfielder that can do a little bit of everything. He does strike out too much, but he had a good rookie season nonetheless, and big things may be expected out of him next season.

2021 Player Grade: B+
2022 Player Rating: 2.5 stars (3.5 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: Starting Right Fielder of the St. Louis Cardinals

IF Paul DeJong
2021 (STL): .197 AVG, 19 HR, 45 RBI, 4 SB, .284 OBP, .390 SLG, .674 OPS, 8.7 BB%, 25.6 K%, 1.6 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): .000 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 BB%, 100 K%

Paul DeJong may have lost his starting job midway through the season due to his offensive struggles, but he is still a very good fielder, and his strong physical tools will show every once in a while, as he still hit 19 homers this season. He made a terrific catch in the postseason to show his defensive value, but he then immediately followed that up by striking out in the next inning, which pretty much sums up his season.

2021 Player Grade: C+
2022 Player Rating: 2.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Platoon Shortstop with the St. Louis Cardinals

RF Lars Nootbar
2021 (STL): .239 AVG, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, .317 OBP, .422 SLG, .739 OPS, 10.5 BB%, 22.6 K%, 0.6 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Considering that very few people in the baseball community knew who he was prior to the season, this year can be considered an overwhelming success for Lars Nootbar. Nootbar did a good job of providing pop off the bench, and he also fielded well defensively. He skyrocketed up through the minors to play well in a reserve role this year. If there was an open starting spot for him next year, then Nootbar could then be a sleeper candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year award next season.

2021 Player Grade: B+
2022 Player Rating: 2 stars (2.5 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: 4th Outfielder on the St. Louis Cardinals

UT José Rondón
2021 (STL): .263 AVG, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .322 OBP, .413 SLG, .735 OPS, 8.9 BB%, 18.9 K%, 0.3 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Rondon didn't make the team on Opening Day, but after playing well in AAA and as the team was hit with some injuries, he was able to show what he can do in the majors. Rondon provided some pop off the bench, and he showed that he can hit for extra bases, but he also struggled considerably on the defensive end.

2021 Player Grade: C+
2022 Player Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Backup Utility Infielder on the St. Louis Cardinals

C Andrew Knizner
2021 (STL): .174 AVG, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB, .281 OBP, .236 SLG, .517 OPS, 10.8 BB%, 21.1 K%, 23 CS%, -1.0 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Knizner didn’t hit the ball very well or throw runners out often, but he seemed to do a decent job of calling the game from behind the plate. Whether or not if he can be the heir apparent remains to be seen, but he may have had a better year than the stats may suggest he had.

2021 Player Grade: C
2022 Player Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Backup Catcher on the St. Louis Cardinals

2B Matt Carpenter
2021 (STL): .169 AVG, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 2 SB, .305 OBP, .275 SLG, .581 OPS, 14.1 BB%, 30.9 K%, -0.3 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Matt Carpenter is nowhere near the player he used to be, and while he can still draw walks, his numbers were down considerably across the board. Not too long ago, Carpenter used to be a very good player that made All-Star teams, and he used to be very helpful in the playoffs. There were questions if Carpenter or Carlos Martinez should have made the team this year, and neither of those two players really did anything to suggest that they should have this season.

But to put it nicely in terms of how good of an MLB player he is right now, Carpenter is super washed up, and it’s looking to be very unlikely that he’ll ever return to top form. He’s been such a shell of himself that this time, he wasn’t even used for the Wildcard game against the Dodgers.

2021 Player Grade: D-
2022 Player Rating: 1 star
2022 Expectations: Backup Infielder somewhere in the majors, or retired

OF Justin Williams
2021 (STL): .160 AVG, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB, .270 OBP, .261 SLG, .531 OPS, 12.4 BB%, 33.6 K%, -0.8 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Williams surprisingly made it to the team’s Opening Day roster, but he struggled mightily once he played in the Majors this season. He was able to hit for power as he showed some pop in his bat, but he struggled to hit the baseball or to field this year.

2021 Grade: D
2022 Rating: 1 star
2022 Expectations: AAA outfielder in the minors

Hitting Coach – Jeff Albert
2021 (STL): .244 AVG, 198 HR, 678 RBI, 89 SB, 8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .313 OBP, .412 SLG, .725 OPS
2021 (Playoffs): .156 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 3 SB, 10.3 BB%, 25.6 K%, .289 OBP, .156 SLG, .446 OPS

It was a fairly mixed bag of a year for Jeff Albert. The hitters did a good job of hitting the long ball and getting extra base hits in the regular season, and they also showed a decent ability to steal the bases and run on the basepaths this year.

On the other hand, their approach was still was sort of suspect, as they didn’t hit for a high average, and they struck out far too often. The Cardinals weren’t the most consistent offensive team. They were tremendous in September, but they couldn’t get the job done in the clutch in the postseason, even with big-time boppers, which hurts even though they faced a very tough Dodgers’ team.

2021 Grade: C+
2022 Rating: 2 stars
2022 Expectations: Hitting coach of the St. Louis Cardinals

The 2021 St. Louis Cardinals had a good season overall, as they did much better than expected, even though there were some curious bullpen moves that were made late in their Wildcard game loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the postseason.

(Photo: Robert Hanashiro/USA Today Sports, via Viva El Birdos)

Mike Shildt
2021 (STL); 90-72, 0-1 in the playoffs
Managerial Career: 252-199, 4-9 in his playoff career

The Cardinals overachieved in the regular season, and they were able to get to the playoffs, despite the majority of people picking against them. Shildt gets the credit for being able to build positive relationships with his players, because he trusts them almost to a fault.

In the playoffs though, this tendency tends to backfire because he’s reactive with his moves and not proactive, so he doesn’t always go with his best options. He made some curious bullpen moves in the Wildcard game, so he will have to improve as a tactician in order to push the Cardinals closer to title contention.

2021 Grade: B
2022 Rating: 2.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Manager of the St. Louis Cardinals

The 2021 Season Grade for the St. Louis Cardinals:

Hitting: A-
Pitching: B
Coaching/Managing: B+
Watching Their Journey This Year: A-
Overall: B+

The 2021 St. Louis Cardinals had a good season overall, and they exceeded a lot of people's expectations. Maybe this team wasn’t destined to win the World Series, but it was a fun ride to watch the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals, and they got a lot of mileage out of a makeshift bullpen and end of the rotation starters that they managed to cobble together. Plus, it was fun watching Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina play for another season, and play very well in doing so. So, there you have it, and thanks for reading.

Evaluating the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals’ Pitching

The St. Louis Cardinals had a lot of injuries, but Adam Wainwright was dominant throughout the season, and they also received strong play from Alex Reyes in the first half of the year. While Reyes started to falter from after that point, the other pitchers managed to pick up the slack, and the Cardinals made the most out of a makeshift collection of pitchers that they managed to find along the way.

Starters:

St. Louis Cardinals' ace and starting pitcher, Adam Wainwright had a fantastic season this year, as he had 17 wins and is a contender for the 2021 NL Cy Young award this season.

(Photo: Joe Puetz/USA Today Sports, via Sports Illustrated)

Adam Wainwright
2021 (STL): 17-7, 3.05 ERA, 206.1 IP, 7.3 H9, 0.9 HR9, 2.2 BB9, 7.6 K9, 3.66 FIP, 3.8 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): 0-0, 1.69 ERA, 5.1 IP, 6.8 H9, 1.7 HR9, 3.4 BB9, 8.4 K9

Adam Wainwright had a terrific season, as he had a rejuvenation year by managing to get 17 wins, and he had a very impressive Cy Young-caliber season at age 40.

2021 Grade: A
2022 Rating: 4 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting pitcher and ace of the St. Louis Cardinals

Jack Flaherty
2021 (STL): 9-2, 3.22 ERA, 78.1 IP, 6.5 H9, 1.4 HR9, 3 BB9, 9.8 K9, 4.22 FIP, 0.9 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Jack Flaherty pitched fairly well when he was healthy, and he did a very good job of striking hitters out. However, he was quite injury prone this year, and he didn’t seem to be fully healthy as he tried to come back late in the season. He also allowed the long ball at a fairly alarming rate this season.

2021 Grade: B-
2022 Rating: 3 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting pitcher of the St. Louis Cardinals

Kwang Hyun Kim
2021 (STL): 7-7, 3.46 ERA, 106.2 IP, 8.3 H9, 1 HR9, 3.3 BB9, 6.8 K9, 4.34 FIP, 1.2 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Kwang Hyun Kim did a decent job as a starting pitcher this season. He was a pitch-to-contact pitcher, and he had pretty good command of his pitches when he was healthy this year.

2021 Grade: C+
2022 Rating: 2.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting pitcher of the St. Louis Cardinals

Dakota Hudson
2021 (STL): 1-0, 2.08 ERA, 8.2 IP, 7.3 H9, 0 HR9, 1 BB9, 6.2 K9, 2.48 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Dakota Hudson missed most of the season due to injury, but he showed great command in the brief time he was out on the mound this year.

2021 Grade: B
2022 Rating: 2.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting pitcher of the St. Louis Cardinals

Miles Mikolas
2021 (STL): 2-3, 4.23 ERA, 44.2 IP, 8.7 H9, 1.2 HR9, 2.2 BB9, 6.2 K9, 4.40 FIP, 0.5 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Miles Mikolas has had trouble staying healthy over the years, but he’s shown solid control of his pitches when healthy. He’s had some trouble keeping the ball in the ball park, but he’s proven that he can be a solid starting pitcher when healthy.

2021 Grade: C
2022 Rating: 2 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting pitcher in the majors

J.A. Happ
2021 (STL): 5-2, 4.00 ERA, 54 IP, 8.7 H9, 1.5 HR9, 2.8 BB9, 7.5 K9, 4.61 FIP, 0.4 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

J.A. Happ also showed decent enough control and command to help the Cardinals go on a massive winning streak in the second half of the season. He struggled to keep the ball in the ball park, but he did other things pretty well, and he had an underrated presence on the mound.

2021 Grade: C+
2022 Rating: 2 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting pitcher somewhere in the majors

Jake Woodford
2021 (STL): 3-4, 3.99 ERA, 67.2 IP, 8.8 H9, 0.9 HR9, 3.3 BB9, 6.7 K9, 4.50 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Woodford showed decent command of his pitches and versatility by being able to start and come out of the bullpen this year. He wasn’t an outstanding pitcher, but he pitched well enough to be counted on for net season.

2021 Grade: C+
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: Spot starter or long reliever in the majors

Johan Oviedo
2021 (STL): 0-5, 4.91 ERA, 62.1 IP, 8.8 H9, 1.2 HR9, 5.3 BB9, 7.4 K9, 5.27 FIP, -0.1 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

After he was called up last year and held his own in the majors, it was perhaps expected for Oviedo to take on a greater role and get an extended stay in the big leagues this time.

Unfortunately, he didn’t pitch too well in the majors. He showed flashes of his potential at times, as he does have strike out stuff, but he also had control and command issues, and he was somehow even worse in AAA when he was demoted. Right now, it’s unclear if he’ll pitch much in the majors next season, as he’ll need to get his game back on track.

2021 Grade: D
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: AAA starter in the minors, emergency spot starter or long reliever in the majors

Jon Lester
2021 (STL): 4-1, 4.36 ERA, 66 IP, 9.3 H9, 1.5 HR9, 3.5 BB9, 5.5 K9, 5.40 FIP, 0 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Jon Lester was acquired in a midseason trade, and he was lucky enough to help the team win a handful of games when he was on the mound. It seemed that he was definitely helped out by good defense and run support this year. He didn’t do any one thing particularly well this year, except show enough command, have a calming veteran presence, and be a good luck charm for the Cardinals.

2021 Grade: C
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Starting pitcher somewhere in the majors

Wade LeBlanc
2021 (STL): 0-1, 3.61 ERA, 42.1 IP, 9.6 H9, 1.5 HR9, 3.4 BB9, 4.9 K9, 5.58 FIP, 0 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

LeBlanc was helped out considerably by good defense, but he struggled to keep the ball in the ball park, and he was not a threat at all to strike hitters out. He wasn’t a great starting pitcher by any means, but he wasn’t terrible either, as he was decent enough of a starter to let the bullpen help decide the outcome of games when he was out there.

2021 Grade: C
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Spot starter or long reliever somewhere in the majors

Carlos Martinez
2021 (STL): 4-9, 6.23 ERA, 82.1 IP, 8.4 H9, 0.9 HR9, 3.9 BB9, 6.2 K9, 4.76 FIP, 0.6 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Carlos Martinez really struggled as a starter once again this season, and he just had trouble with his command or to consistently make quality pitches this year. In addition, he’s been hurt by injuries over the years, and his velocity has dipped drastically since he’s first been called up to the majors. This season was technically an improvement for him compared to 2020, but it was still not a great year for him by any means or stretch of the imagination.

2021 Grade: D-
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Spot starter/long man in the majors

Relievers:

St. Louis Cardinals' closer, Giovanny Gallegos proved himself to be the most steady and dependable bullpen arm on their team this year, and he finished the season with 14 saves.

(Photo: Jeff Curry/USA Today Sports, via Viva El Birdos)

Giovanny Gallegos
2021 (STL): 6-5, 3.02 ERA, 80.1 IP, 14 SV, 5.7 H9, 0.7 HR9, 2.2 BB9, 10.6 K9, 2.75 FIP, 2.2 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 9 H9, 0 HR9, 0 BB9, 18 K9

Gallegos turned out to be the best reliever on the Cardinals’ team by far, and he was the most dependable bullpen pitcher on this team. He pitched very well down the stretch and in the playoffs.

There were reports that he couldn’t grip his slider pitch prior to the start of the 9th inning, which was reportedly why he was taken out of the game. Still, he had a very good season for the Cards this year.

2021 Grade: A-
2022 Rating: 3.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Set up man or closer on the St. Louis Cardinals

Second half and postseason slide aside, St. Louis Cardinals' relief pitcher and at times closer, Alex Reyes had a solid season overall as he had 29 saves, and he managed to exceed his expectations this year by making the 2021 NL All-Star team.

(Photo: Jeff Roberson/Associated Press, via Fox 2)

Alex Reyes
2021 (STL): 10-8, 3.24 ERA, 72.1 IP, 29 SV, 5.7 H9, 1.1 HR9, 6.5 BB9, 11.8 K9, 4.40 FIP, 0.2 WAR, made the 2021 NL All-Star Team
2021 (Playoffs): 0-0, inf, 0 IP, inf H9, inf HR9

Reyes was lights out as a closer in the first half, and he is a fireballer that could consistently throw in the triple digits to strike hitters out. He also was very wild and often had control issues, so much of the first half of Reyes racking up saves was me wondering if he was defying analytics and was getting saves due to his extremely good stuff, or if he was extremely lucky. Either way, he surpassed expectations by a long shot in the first half, and he was contending with Wainwright, O’Neill and others to be the Cardinals’ team MVP at that point.

Turns out, the answer to that question was a little bit of both, that he was getting outs due to his very good stuff but he was also very lucky too. However, his wildness caught up to him in the second half and later on in the season. When other teams caught wind that he was a talented pitcher that could close games, they got the book on him and studied him, and Reyes had trouble adjusting to them late in the season. He started blowing leads and saves, and he lost his closer job late in the year. He was entrusted to come in the game in the 9th inning against the Dodgers, but ended up allowing a heartbreaking walk-off homer that ended the Cards’ season.

2021 Grade: B
2022 Rating: 2.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Set up man or closer on the St. Louis Cardinals

Génesis Cabrera
2021 (STL): 4-5, 3.73 ERA, 70 IP, 6.7 H9, 0.4 HR9, 4.6 BB9, 9.9 K9, 3.28 FIP, 1.1 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

He’s a left-handed, hard thrower that had a very good season, as he did a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, and he struck a lot of hitters out. He had some control issues, but he proved to be one of the more reliable relievers on this team.

2021 Grade: B
2022 Rating: 2.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Relief pitcher on the St. LouiS Cardinals

Jordan Hicks
2021 (STL): 0-0, 5.40 ERA, 10 IP, 4.5 H9, 0 HR9, 9 BB9, 9 K9, 4.17 FIP, 0 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Hicks is the team’s former closer that once threw 105 MPH, as he had a blistering fastball that would absolutely punish and devastate hitters. He’s been oft-injured since, and he’s had trouble staying healthy. He also has a tendency to overthrow and walk batters. He was briefly up but continued to run into injuries, and he was disastrous in three starts in AAA.

2021 Grade: D+
2022 Rating: 2 stars (3 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: Relief pitcher in the majors

Kodi Whitley
2021 (STL): 0-0, 2.49 ERA, 25.1 IP, 5.3 H9, 0.4 HR9, 4.3 BB9, 9.6 K9, 2.97 FIP, 0.4 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Kodi Whitley is a hard-throwing relief pitcher that did a good job of striking hitters out and keeping balls in the ballpark, but he did have some control issues. Still, he had a pretty good season this year.

2021 Grade: B
2022 Rating: 2 stars (2.5 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: Relief pitcher in the majors

St. Louis Cardinals' relief pitcher, Luis García was fantastic this year, and he did a great job out of the bullpen in both the regular and the postseason.

(Photo: Ed Zurga/Getty Images, via Viva El Birdos)

Luis García
2021 (STL): 1-1, 3.24 ERA, 33.1 IP, 6.8 H9, 0.5 HR9, 2.2 BB9, 9.2 K9, 2.72 FIP, 0.7 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.2 IP, 5.4 H9, 0 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 0 K9

Garcia had a rejuvenation year, as he was plucked off the scrap heap, and managed to turn in a great season. The hard-throwing reliever pitched very well in relief for the Cards this year.

He showed a good fastball and slider, and he was one of the most dependable bullpen arms for the Cardinals this season. He didn’t have control issues this year. He also pitched well in the playoffs, though a couple of balls were hit hard and he was saved by the great defense of his team. Either way, Garcia still had a very good year in 2021.

2021 Grade: A
2022 Rating: 2 stars
2022 Expectations: Middle reliever or set up man for the St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan Helsley
2021 (STL): 6-4, 4.56 ERA, 47.1 IP, 1 SV, 7.6 H9, 0.8 HR9, 5.1 BB9, 8.9 K9, 3.99 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Helsley is a hard-thrower that was able to strike plenty of hitters out, but he also ran into some control issues this season.

2021 Grade: C
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: Relief pitcher in the majors

Seth Elledge
2021 (STL): 0-0, 4.63 ERA, 11.2 IP, 10 H9, 0.8 HR9, 5.4 BB9, 8.5 K9, 4.46 FIP, 0 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

He showed that he can strike hitters out, but he also had control issues throughout the season.

2021 Grade: D
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: AAA reliever in the minors, emergency spot starter or long reliever in the majors

T.J. McFarland
2021 (STL): 4-1, 2.56 ERA, 38.2 IP, 7.4 H9, 0.7 HR9, 2.1 BB9, 4.9 K9, 3.79 FIP, 0.3 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): 0-1, 13.50 ERA, 0.2 IP, 0 H9, 0 HR9, 13.5 BB9, o K9

McFarland was another relief pitcher that was plucked right off the scrap heap, and managed to turn in a good season this year with the St. Louis Cardinals. He did a great job of locating and commanding his pitches. He almost was able to make it through the 9th inning in the Wildcard game, but he walked in the eventual go-ahead run, and was taken out in the loss.

2021 Grade: B+
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Relief pitcher in the majors

Andrew Miller
2021 (STL): 0-0, 4.75 ERA, 36 IP, 10.3 H9, 1.3 HR9, 4 BB9, 10 K9, 4.50 FIP, -0.1 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

The left-handed, Andrew Miller struggled more with his command this year, as he didn’t do a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark or locating his pitches this season. On the other hand, he still did a good job of striking hitters out. He’s historically been a very good bullpen pitcher, but this wasn’t his season in 2021.

2021 Grade: D
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Relief pitcher in the majors

Justin Miller
2021 (STL): 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 16 IP, 8.4 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.8 BB9, 5.1 K9, 4.98 FIP, -0.1 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Miller showed good control of his pitches, but he had trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark, and rarely struck hitters out, either.

2021 Grade: C
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Relief pitcher in the majors

Junior Fernandez
2021 (STL): 1-0, 5.66 ERA, 20.2 IP, 10.9 H9, 0.9 HR9, 6.5 BB9, 6.5 K9, 5.15 FIP, -0.1 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Fernandez spent another season up in the majors, but he didn’t seem to do any one thing particularly well in the bullpen, and he was extremely walk prone this year.

2021 Grade: D-
2022 Rating: 1 star (2 stars potential)
2022 Expectations: AAA reliever in the minors, emergency spot starter or long reliever in the majors

Tyler Webb
2021 (STL): 0-0, 13.22 ERA, 16.1 IP, 12.1 H9, 0.6 HR9, 10.5 BB9, 7.7 K9, 5.74 FIP, -0.1 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

The left-handed reliever, Webb was just terrible this season, and he was extremely walk prone this year.

2021 Grade: F
2022 Rating: 1 star
2022 Expectations: AAA reliever in the minors, emergency spot starter or long reliever in the majors

Designated For Assignment:

Daniel Ponce de Leon
2021 (STL): 1-1, 6.21 ERA, 33.1 IP, 8.6 H9, 1.4 HR9, 5.9 BB9, 6.5 K9, 6.11 FIP, -0.5 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

Ponce de Leon was bad from the get go, and he was later DFAed by the Cardinals.

2021 Grade: F
2022 Rating: 1 star
2022 Expectations: AAA reliever in the minors, emergency spot starter or long reliever in the majors

Traded Away:

John Gant
2021 (STL): 4-6, 3.42 ERA, 76.1 IP, 7.5 H9, 0.7 HR9, 6.6 BB9, 6.6 K9, 5.12 FIP, 0.5 WAR
2021 (Playoffs): N/A

John Gant was traded away to the Minnesota Twins this year. He was a pitch-to-contact pitcher that could start or come out of the bullpen, but he also walked hitters at a very alarming rate this year.

2021 Grade: C (C w/STL and C w/MIN)
2022 Rating: 1.5 stars
2022 Expectations: Long reliever in the majors

Mike Maddux had a really good year, as he helped turn a makeshift bullpen and backend group of starters into a solid group of pitchers for the St. Louis Cardinals this season.

(Photo: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports, via Redbird Rants)

Pitching Coach – Mike Maddux
2021 (STL): 90-72, 3.98 ERA, 7.8 H9, 1 HR9, 3.9 BB9, 7.8 K9, 4.30 FIP
2021 (Postseason): 0-1, 3.12 ERA, 7.3 H9, 2.1 HR9, 4.2 BB9, 7.3 BB9

Maddux had a solid season as the pitching coach for the Cardinals. Wainwright had a rejuvenation year, and Wainwright dominated, especially in the second half of the season. Maddux also helped aging veterans, John Lester, J.A. Happ, and Wade LeBlanc pitch well in the starting rotation for the Cards this year.

The most impressive aspect of his coaching this year was that he made the most of a makeshift bullpen that was pretty much mostly plucked off the scrap heap, and he helped turn this team into a playoff baseball team. Even though the Cardinals faltered in the Wildcard game, this was a good coaching job by Maddox this year.

2021 Grade: A
2022 Rating: 3 stars
2022 Expectations: Pitching coach of the St. Louis Cardinals

Conclusion:

Overall, plenty of pitchers on the St. Louis Cardinals ended up missing considerable time due to injuries, but the Cardinals made the most out of the group they were able to work with this season. Adam Wainwright had a terrific season, as he had 17 wins, and was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. The Cardinals plucked plenty of pitchers off of the waiver wire and through trades, and found a way to make it all work to get to the postseason.

The Cardinals' pitching was a key component in helping the Cards go on a 17-game winning streak en route to reaching the postseason. It was tough to see the Cardinals lose in a heartbreaker in the Wildcard game to the Dodgers, but the Cardinals had a good season overall, and their solid pitching throughout the year was a key component in helping them have a good year in 2021.

So there you have it, thanks for reading.

Thursday, October 7, 2021

The NBA’s Health Fraud Squad Theoretical 17-Man NBA Roster (15 Players, Plus 2 Two-Way Players)…and 1 Other Guy

Today, some really shocking news hit the NBA community.

According to NBC News Correspondent Tom Winter's tweet, 18 former NBA players (which included Tony Allen, Glen Davis, and Darius Miles) were indicted and charged in an alleged fraud case, as they were arrested and charged for defrauding the NBA’s Health and Welfare Benefit Plan out of millions of dollars. This was shocking, especially since this group also featured former 6-time Defensive team guard Tony Allen and forward Glen Davis, both of whom were on the 2008 Boston Celtics’ championship team, as well as Terrence Williams, who was cited as the ringleader.

Crooked Media, Takeline, and All Caps’ Jason Concepcion had a very interesting take online, and he cited that this team would win 23-26 games. Okay, so maybe that was a generous take from him.

This got me thinking. Who would be their best player, what would their starting lineup be, and who would be on their team? Since 15 players plus 2 two-way players can make the team, that means one player would unfortunately have to get cut from this roster. It's never good that anyone was caught in a fraud scheme, but just for fun, I wanted to see what this basketball team would look like.

Of course, you can shape this roster any way possible, since this wasn’t actually an NBA team, but I decided to see what this team would look like in today’s age, in the 2021-22 NBA season.

In trying to figure out what the NBA Health Fraud squad would look like, here is what I came up with after looking up information and doing research via Basketball-Reference:

The NBA Fraud Squad’s Hypothetical Starting Lineup:

C Glen Davis
F Ruben Patterson – the team’s most likely best player
F Jamario Moon
G Tony Allen – the team’s best overall defender
G C.J. Watson

While Tony Allen would be the team’s best defender and most notable name on this list, Ruben Patterson would be the team’s best overall player, and the 2nd best defender on this team. The NBA’s Fraud Squad would definitely have trouble shooting or scoring points, but they could certainly run, press, and defend to wreak havoc on the defensive end. Only 3 players averaged 10 or more points in their NBA careers, and Ruben Patterson is one of them (the other two would be Tony Wroten and Darius Miles).

Here are the stats for this starting 5 (the position is next to the name):

Ruben Patterson was a good defensive player that provided toughness, intensity, and energy, as well as some scoring skills on the court. To the right of him is his former Blazers' teammate Darius Miles, who also was charged with fraud along with Patterson.

(Photo: SB Nation's Blazer's Edge)

G-F Ruben Patterson

NBA Career: 10.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 24.6 MPG, 55.6 TS%, 17.1 PER, 35.1 WS48
Years in the NBA: 1999-2008

Self-proclaimed as “the Kobe stopper” back in his heyday, Patterson never quite did that, but he was actually much more than just a good defensive player in the NBA. He was a very athletic, tough multi-positional player that could play and guard numerous positions, and he was very good at attacking the hoop to score on offense. He couldn’t really shoot threes, but his athleticism, defense, and energy made him a solid role player, especially on the defensive end.

Tony Allen was a tough, gritty hard-nosed defender that was named to six All-Defensive teams throughout his NBA career.
(Photo: Justin Ford/USA Today Sports, via Fansided's Step Back)

G-F Tony Allen

NBA Career: 8.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 22.0 MPG, 52.9 TS%, 28.2 3PT%, 14.2 PER, 38.7 WS, .103 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2005-2018

Tony Allen is the most accomplished NBA player that is on this list. Known affectionately as “the Grindfather” by Memphis Grizzlies fans, Tony Allen was a superb defender that made 6 All-Defensive teams in the NBA. He was a key role player on the 2008 Boston Celtics’ championship team, and he was a very athletic guard that consistently provided lockdown defense and toughness, as he excelled in his role throughout his years in the league.

Glen Davis was a key role player on the 2008 Boston Celtics' NBA championship team that season.

(Photo: Elsa/Getty Images, via Canoe.Com)

F-C Glen Davis

NBA Career: 8.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.9 APG, 21.1 MPG, 49.4 TS%, 12.4 WS, .082 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2008-2015

Dubbed affectionately by sports fans as “Big Baby” back in the day, he was a below the rim, energetic low post scorer that would provide his teams with points and rebounds off the bench. He was a key bench player as a rookie on the 2008 Boston Celtics’ championship team. He even averaged 15 points per game for the Orlando Magic in the 2012-13 season, and Davis was one of the best finds of the 2007 NBA Draft.

F Jamario Moon

NBA Career: 6.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 22.6 MPG, 54.1 TS%, 32.9 3PT%, 13.1 PER, 14.3 WS, .106 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2008-2012

Jamario Moon was a tall, very athletic forward that excelled as a scorer in transition, and was a solid defender in this league. He was a streaky shooter, but he could space the floor well on his best days. He wasn’t a heavy scorer, but he could be an athletic 3 and D guy in this league.

G C.J. Watson
NBA Career: 7.2 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 RPG, 20.2 MPG, 53.3 TS%, 37.3 3PT%, 13.1 PER, 24.1 WS, .096 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2008-2017

C.J. Watson was a journeyman backup point guard who was best known for being a solid shooter, and for reliably running the point on second units for various teams in the NBA. He wasn’t the most dynamic player on offense, but he consistently played well enough to be a regular in NBA teams’ rotations for many years in this league.

Filling out the 10-Man Rotation for the Hypothetical Team, the NBA Fraud Squad:

G Shannon Brown, the 6th Man
F Alan Anderson, the 7th Man
F-C Darius Miles, the 8th Man
G Tony Wroten, the 9th Man
F Chris Douglas-Roberts, the 10th Man

G Shannon Brown
NBA Career: 7.6 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 18.0 MPG, 50.3 TS%, 33.2 3PT%, 12.4 PER, 9.2 WS, .060 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2007-2015

Brown was a very athletic combo guard that thrived as a shot maker off the bench. He didn’t really fit a traditional position, but he was a key contributor on the 2009 and 2010 Lakers’ championship teams in this league.

G-F Alan Anderson
NBA Career: 7.3 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.1 APG, 20.6 MPG, 52.6 TS%, 34.4 3PT%, 10.3 PER, 7.4 WS, .052 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2006-2007, 2012-2017

Alan Anderson had spent a couple of seasons on two lowly Charlotte Bobcats’ teams before ending up out of the league, and he bounced around overseas and in the then D-League before re-inventing himself as a 3 and D player. When he came back, he was a useful role player on various NBA teams.

Darius Miles was one half of the Clippers' popular duo along with Quentin Richardson that did taps on the head in the early 2000s.

(Photo: SB Nation's Clips Nation)

F-C Darius Miles

NBA Career: 10.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 BPG, 26.3 MPG, 49.8 TS%, 13.9 PER, 9.5 WS, .039 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2001-2006, 2009

Darius Miles, known as “D-Miles” early in his NBA career, was a very athletic, tall forward that was selected 3rd overall in the 2000 NBA Draft. He had a ton of upside, and he was a gifted scorer on fast breaks, and showed promise as a defender, as he had the potential to guard multiple positions.

While he showed promise in his early years, unfortunately, he never quite reached his full potential in the NBA. He never fully developed his offensive game or became the defensive stopper some felt he could have been, but Miles was a tremendously athletic forward whose great speed and rim running abilities would make him an intriguing small-ball center in today’s NBA.

G-F Tony Wroten
NBA Career: 11.1 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.5 RPG, 21.2 MPG, 48.8 TS%, 21.2 MPG, 12.6 PER, -1.3 WS, -.021 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2013-2016

Tony Wroten was a tall, very athletic combo guard that excelled as an athletic slasher, which enabled him to score quite often in this league, and he also could play numerous positions in this league. He didn’t have a great outside shot, and he consistently played on some of the worst teams in the league, but his ability to score and facilitate allowed him to have two decent seasons in the NBA.

After CDR's tremendous junior season at Memphis, some of the draft fans and analysts thought he was destined for greatness in the NBA. Chris Douglas-Roberts played 6 seasons in the NBA, but never averaged 10 or more points in a single season, though he came close once in the 2009-10 season.
(Photo: Pace for News, via NY Daily News)

G-F Chris Douglas-Roberts

NBA Career: 7.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.1 APG, 19.7 MPG, 52.8 TS%, 32.9 3PT%, 11.5 PER, 5.4 WS, .059 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2009-2011, 2013-2015

Chris Douglas-Roberts, affectionately known to some as “CDR” and referred to in court documents as “Supreme Bey,” was a college star that was known for his strong scoring skills (predominantly on dribble handoff plays) on the 2008 Memphis Tigers’ team that lost in overtime to Kansas in the National Championship game. Thought to be a likely first round pick, he fell to being selected 40th overall by the New Jersey Nets in the 2008 NBA Draft.

Douglas-Roberts was an athletic, journeyman swingman that provided scoring on various NBA teams in this league. He wasn’t the most consistent player and he didn’t shoot quite as well as hoped in this league, but he is a player that can provide some solid scoring punch on his best days.

Rounding Out the Roster part I, Players 11-15 for the Hypothetical Team, the NBA’s Fraud Squad:

Players, 11-15:

F Eddie Robinson, 11th Man
G Will Bynum, 12th Man
C Greg Smith, 13th Man
F Antoine Wright, 14th Man
G Sebastian Telfair, 15th Man

F Eddie Robinson
NBA Career: 7.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 0.9 APG, 19.2 MPG, 53.4 TS%, 14 PER, 10.2 WS, .091 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2000-2004

Perhaps I should’ve rated Eddie Robinson higher on this list, but there were a lot of intriguing candidates to help round out the rotation. Anyways, Eddie Robinson was an athletic, high-motor combo forward that excelled at attacking the hoop to provide scoring off the bench. While he didn’t have a great outside shot, he was a vital role player that would provide scoring, athleticism, and energy off the bench.

G Will Bynum
NBA Career: 8.1 PPG, 3.3 APG, 1.6 RPG, 18.4 MPG, 51 TS%, 14.6 PER, 7 PER, .051 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2005, 2009-2015

Will Bynum bounced around quite a bit in this league, but he was a serviceable backup point guard that provided tough, feisty defense in his years in the NBA. While he didn't have a great outside shot, he was a solid backup point guard that could reliably run the point, and he was a tenacious defender in this league.

F-C Greg Smith
NBA Career: 4.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.3 APG, 12.3 MPG, 62.3 TS%, 13.8 PER, 5.5 WS, .143 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2012-2016

Greg Smith was something of an analytical favorite, but he was also a seldom-used center that only played 1000 minutes or more once in a season during his years in the NBA. He was an athletic center that could score in the low post and rebound, but he didn’t play very much in this league.

F Antoine Wright
NBA Career: 5.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 19.2 MPG, 49 TS%, 30.4 3PT%, 7.9 PER, 3.1 WS, .026 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2006-2011

Wright was a very athletic swingman that could score on offense, but he was very inconsistent as a shooter in this league. On his best day, he could be a solid 3 and D role player when he was out on the floor.

G Sebastian Telfair
NBA Career: 7.4 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.6 RPG, 21.5 MPG, 47.8 TS%, 31.9 3PT%, 10.8 PER, 5 WS, .020 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2005-2013, 2015

Telfair was known for his high school exploits that enabled him to be a first round pick of the 2004 NBA Draft. He didn’t quite live up to expectations, but he was able to carve out a career as a journeyman point guard that could provide a little offense and run the team. He was a solid facilitator, but was an inconsistent shooter that didn’t really offer much defensively in this league.

Rounding Out the Roster part 2, The Two-Way Players for the Hypothetical Team, the NBA’s Fraud Squad:

F Terrence Williams (would be on a Two-Way contract in this scenario)
C Melvin Ely (would be on a Two-Way contract in this scenario)

Terrence Williams was alleged to be the ringleader of the health fraud scam, as a total of 18 players, and one other person were apparently involved in that scheme.

(Photo: Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press, via CBC.ca)

G-F Terrence Williams - the alleged ring leader of their health fraud scam

NBA Career: 7.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 19.1 MPG, 46.6 TS%, 31.7 3PT%, 11.5 PER, -0.2 WS, -.004 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2010-2013

Williams was a very athletic point forward that had promising skills, and had plenty of talent, but he also was an extremely inconsistent player in games. His versatility made him intriguing as a player, but he also would show bad shot selection and he also would take bad gambles defensively. On his best days though, he could provide scoring punch and playmaking skills on an NBA team.

C Melvin Ely

NBA Career: 5.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 0.7 APG, 16 MPG. 49.7 TS%, 10.6 PER, 4.0 WS, .032 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2003-2009, 2011, 2014

Ely was a strong, physical center that played for numerous teams in this league, but he was quite inconsistent as a player in the NBA, and he shot the ball really poorly in some of the years in the association. He provided some shot blocking skills, and he hung around in the NBA for quite a while, but he was pretty shoddy as a scorer or rebounder, and his advanced stats were quite bad for an NBA center pretty much all across the board. On the other hand, he is a center that would be on a team that has a dearth of true centers on this roster, and Ely also won an NBA championship as a member of the 2007 San Antonio Spurs, which would give him a decent case to be on this team.

The Player that Would (Likely) Get Cut From this Hypothetical Team:

G Milt Palacio
NBA Career: 4.8 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 RPG, 17.9 MPG, 47.7 TS%, 9.9 PER, 3.9 WS, .022 WS48
Years in the NBA: 2000-2006

Unfortunately, NBA rules stipulate that the maximum a team can carry on their roster is 15 players, plus 2 two-way contract players, so one player would get cut from their regular season roster.

G Milt Palacio

Palacio was a journeyman backup point guard that did little more than reliably run the team as a second or third string point guard in this league. He was never a great shooter or scorer, but he hung around by being a game-managing, pass-first point guard that could capably defend on the other end of the floor.

So, who would be the theoretical head coach?

Well, there is no head coach that was named as part of the NBA Health Fraud Squad, but I feel that former NBA head coach Rick Pitino would be a great fit as the boss for this team.

His run and press scheme would utilize the best aspects of this very defensive squad that featured some of the most underrated defenders in their heyday, and Pitino also was suspended for parts of the 2017-18 NCAA college basketball season for his failures and negligence in an escort sex scandal at Louisville involving recruits, so he would fit right into this team.

So in essence, here would be who would be on this fictional, hypothetical, NBA Health Fraud Squad.

The NBA's Health Fraud Squad (Fictional Team):

The Would-Be Head Coach:
Rick Pitino

The Would-Be Starting Lineup:
C Glen Davis
F Ruben Patterson
F Jamario Moon
G Tony Allen
G C.J. Watson

The Would-Be Bench:

G Shannon Brown
F Alan Anderson
F-C Darius Miles
G Tony Wroten
F Chris Douglas-Roberts
F Eddie Robinson
G Will Bynum
C Greg Smith
F Antoine Wright
G Sebastian Telfair

The Would-Be Two-Way Guys:
F Terrence Williams (would be on a Two-Way contract in this scenario)
C Melvin Ely (would be on a Two-Way contract in this scenario)

Ceiling (Peak Scenario): 30 wins, but miss the playoffs
Floor (Lowest Level Scenario): <15 wins, the worst team in the NBA

Most Likely Theoretical Season Outcome: A 25-57 record, this team would likely miss the playoffs, and be one of the worst teams in the NBA

Overall, if this were the 31st team in the NBA, this team would be an intriguing expansion team, and they could be fun to watch defensively, especially if they were equipped with a coach that would allow them to play fast and utilize a style that enhances their team’s strengths.

On the other hand, this team would really have trouble scoring the basketball, which could be a recipe for disaster in today’s NBA. All of these players were career role players, and there isn’t one player that is capable of sniffing a chance to make the All-Star team.

Before doing this research, I thought about building this fictional team around the talents of Chris Douglas-Roberts, but after having done the research and looked up their stats on Basketball-Reference, I developed a greater appreciation for the underrated basketball skills of former Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers' forward, Ruben Patterson.

In any case, this would probably not be a great team in today’s age, but if this were a real team, maybe Ruben Patterson would pick up a Most Improved Player award, and it might actually be a team where Tony Allen would have a legitimate chance to be the team’s best player on an NBA roster.

Saturday, October 2, 2021

Forecasting the 2021-22 St. Louis Blues' NHL Season

As the season is about to start soon, I will look at the 2021-22 St. Louis Blues’ team and preview them to see how their roster is shaping up. They won the 2019 Stanley Cup, and have been a solid playoff team since then. They have made strong moves in the offseason, and they have picked up strong scoring forwards in Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad through trades and free agency in the offseason. I also went to Cap Friendly, Hockeydb.com, and Hockey-Reference for research purposes in trying to decide who would likely make the St. Louis Blues' team this year.

Here is a look at the players that will most likely be on their team this season.

Ryan O'Reilly is one of the best players in the NHL, and he is a strong all-around forward that could lead the St. Louis Blues to another title run in 2022.
(Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images, via the Los Angeles Times)

The St. Louis Blues' Forwards (14):

C Ryan O’Reilly
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 24 G, 30 A, 54 PTS, +26, 18 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 53.2%

Ryan O’Reilly is a very good, first-line center that has strong all-around skills. He is a gifted scorer that passes well and can put the puck in the net, and he is also a gritty player that plays shut down defense. He is terrific at handling faceoffs, and he is a leader that will guide this team to many victories.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 4.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 1st line center

LW/RW David Perron
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 19 G, 39 A, 58 PTS, +6, 22 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 52.1%

David Perron is a skilled, pesky winger whose been a consistent scorer for the last few years. He has good chemistry with Ryan O’Reilly, and he is a solid two-way forward that plays well on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 4 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

LW/RW Pavel Buchnevich
2021 (NYR): 54 GP, 20 G, 28 A, 48 PTS, +12, 42 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 46.7%

Buchnevich is a skilled scorer that also is willing to dig pucks out to help his team on both ends of the ice. He is coming off a terrific season, and he will likely be a great addition for the Blues this year.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

LW/C Brayden Schenn
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 16 G, 20 A, 36 PTS, -2, 35 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.3%

Schenn is a skilled, two-way forward that excels at scoring, and he also is a solid playmaker and defender. He can play either at center or out on the wing, and he is a versatile playmaker that projects to be a solid top two line forward this season.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

RW Vladimir Tarasenko
2021 (STL): 24 GP, 4 G, 10 A, 14 PTS, -7, 0 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.7%

Tarasenko is a super skilled winger that can really put the puck in the net, and he can be a very good, two-way forward when he’s on the ice. However, he’s had trouble staying on the ice as he’s been injured a lot in the past two seasons, which is concerning. When he’s on his game, he’s a definite All-Star and top-line forward.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 6 Forward

LW Brandon Saad
2021 (COL): 44 GP, 15 G, 9 A, 24 PTS, +1, 12 PIM, Even Strength Corsi 57.1%

Saad helps replace Jaden Schwartz, and he is a bigger forward that can help score around the net. He’ll help control possession, and then provide some scoring.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

RW/C Robert Thomas
2021 (STL): 33 GP, 3 G, 9 A, 12 PTS, +1, 10 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 49.3%

Thomas is a skilled, two-way forward that plays on both ends of the floor. He is a very good passer that can dig out pucks, and he also is a solid passer and defensive player when he is on the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars (3.5 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

RW Jordan Kyrou
2021 (STL): 55 GP, 14 G, 21 A, 35 PTS, +1, 12 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50.8%

Kyrou is a very skilled scorer that does a very good job of putting pucks in the net, and setting up his teammates so that can do so, too. He’s a skilled playmaker that is on the verge of a breakthrough season, and he may have definite top line potential as a winger in this league.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars (3.5 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

C Tyler Bozak
2021 (STL): 31 GP, 5 G, 12 A, 17 PTS, -3, 10 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 42.8%

Bozak is a solid center that does a good job of passing the puck, and he is an offensively skilled playmaker that does a very good job of winning faceoffs. He’ll need to improve his puck possession and defense, but he is a solid second tier center in this league.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 9 Forward

C Oskar Sundqvist
2021 (STL): 28 GP, 4 G, 5 A, 9 PTS, -6, 14 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 40.9%

He is a defensive forward that is one of the best penalty killers on the Blues’ team. He also can score and provide some offense, but he is mostly there to provide strong defense when he is on the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

C Ivan Barbashev
2021 (STL): 38 GP, 5 G, 7 A, 12 PTS, +5, 6 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.8%

He is a solid mid-tier forward that can provide some scoring and solid defensive skills on the ice. He’s not really a puck carrier, but he has shown that he can play well on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

LW Kyle Clifford
2021 (STL): 50 GP, 4 G, 3 A, 7 PTS, -5, 30 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 47.8%

Kyle Clifford is a back line winger that does a very good job of possessing the puck. He’s not really a scorer, but he can provide some playmaking skills and toughness on the back lines.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

LW Mackenzie MacEachern
2021 (STL): 21 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, +3, 8 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50%

He’s a tough, backline winger that can provide some defense and puck movement. He’s not a scorer, but he is a forward that will play hard and compete on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward

LW Klim Kostin
2021 (STL): 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PTS, -1, 0 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50%
2021 (KHL): 43 GP, 7 G, 11 A, 18 PTS, +6, 50 PIM

He is a tough, feisty winger that can put the puck in the net, and he also has some playmaking and defensive skills. He’ll need to stay out of the box more, but he could be a solid candidate for the back lines this year.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2.5 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: 4th Line Forward, or 1st Line AHL forward

While St. Louis Blues' fans may undoubtedly miss the veteran presence of Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester, who were a really good defensive tandem that helped the Blues win the 2019 Stanley Cup, Torey Krug is a speedy, feisty defenseman that is one of the best at his position in the NHL right now.
(Photo: Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images, via The Hockey Writers)

The St. Louis Blues' Defensemen (7):

D Torey Krug
2021 (STL): 51 GP, 2 G, 30 A, 32 PTS, +11, 25 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 53.9%

He is a feisty, two-way defender that excels at making plays on both ends of the ice. He is a very good passer and defender, and while he is undersized and is not a heavy hitter, and he is a very good offensive defenseman that has consistently played well in this league.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 4 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Justin Faulk
2021 (STL): 56 GP, 7 G, 18 A, 25 PTS, +11, 35 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 48.5%

He got off to a slow start when he first got traded, but he really bounced back in his second year with the Blues. He finally hit his stride, because he got a steady role as a top 4 defenseman. He’s solid on both ends of the ice.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Colton Parayko
2021 (STL): 32 GP, 2 G, 10 A, 12 PTS, -2, 14 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 46.5%

Parayko is a tall, hard-shot defenseman that has been mostly used a shutdown defender in the last couple of years, so his offensive production has taken a hit. He could chip in offensively if they need him, because he has one of the hardest shots in hockey.

I'm a firm believer in his abilities, and he is a vastly talented defenseman that can play really well on both ends of the ice, but he's taken a hit statistically over the years because he mostly has been used as a shutdown defenseman that plays against the opponents' top players in the defensive zones.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Marco Scandella
2021 (STL): 49 GP, 3 G, 6 A, 9 PTS, +14, 24 PIM. , Even Strength Corsi: 44.1%

He is a steady, defensive defenseman. He has good chemistry with Parayko, and he is a good position defender. He’s limited offensively, but he doesn’t do too many careless things with the puck, and he tends to make decisions in games.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Top 4 Defenseman

D Robert Bortuzzo
2021 (STL): 40 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 PTS, -3, 47 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50.2%

He is a right-shot, hard-hitting defenseman that provides a physical presence for the team. He is a tough, gritty player that isn’t afraid to lay out the big, heavy hits. Sometimes, that will land him in the box, but he is a good player to have on the third pairing.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 3rd Pairing Defenseman

D Niko Mikkola
2021 (STL): 30 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PTS, -11, 11 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 43.3%

He is a young defenseman with size and some mobility. He’s generally been pretty solid defensively. He hasn’t provided quite as much on offense, but he could be a solid back pairing defenseman.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: 3rd Pairing Defenseman

D Jake Walman
2021 (STL): 24 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, -7, 8 PIM, Even Strength Corsi: 50.6%

He is also a young defenseman, and he provides puck movement and some offensive skills. He’s adequate on the defensive end, as he’s not a liability, but he’s also not nearly as physical as Bortuzzo or Mikkola. If the team needs some more speed or skill, Walman could sub in for either Bortozzo or Mikkola.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: 3rd Pairing Defenseman

When Jordan Binnington is on his game, he can be an unstoppable force in the net. He had a tremendous year in 2019, but he's been a bit inconsistent recently as the team's starting goaltender since then.
(Photo: Joe Puetz/NHLI via Getty Images, via Fansided's Puck Prose)

The St. Louis Blues' Goalies (2):

G Jordan Binnington
2021 (STL): 18-14-8, 2.65 GAA, 91 SV%

He was one of the best young goalies, and he was able to lead the Blues to win the 2019 Stanley Cup as a rookie goaltender. He’s been a little bit inconsistent lately since the Stanley Cup win, but when he’s on, he can be one of the best goalies in the league.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 3.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: 1st string goalie

G Ville Husso
2021 (STL): 9-6-1, 3.20 GAA, 89.3 SV%

After spending years in the minors, despite having a strong track record prior to being selected in the NHL draft, Husso finally came up last year, but was fairly underwhelming overall as a rookie. He got off to a really slow start, but he started to get a little more comfortable as the season progressed. He ended up with a good win percentage, even though his other metrics were less than desirable.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 1.5 stars (2 stars potential)
Projected 2022 Role: Backup goalie

Craig Berube had a terrific first season with the St. Louis Blues, as he led them to win the Stanley Cup in 2019, but the Blues have been bounced early in the playoffs for the past two seasons.
(Photo: Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press, via KSDK)

Head Coach:
Craig Berube
2021 (STL): 27-20-9, 0-4 in the playoffs
Coaching Career: 107-58-25, 18-21 in his playoff career, won the 2019 Stanley Cup

Craig Berube stormed onto the scene as an interim coach during the middle of the 2019 season to take over a then-floundering Blues squad, and he engineered a comeback to not only right the ship, but to guide them to a 2019 Stanley Cup championship.

He’s a good motivator that connects well with players. Tactically, he did a masterful job in 2019, but his coaching decisions could be regarded as kind of questionable since then, as he doesn’t always make adjustments in the middle of the game. He undoubtedly had his strongest playoff run in 2019, but the Blues were swept by the Colorado Avalanche in 2021, and they have been very disappointing in the playoffs in the past two seasons.

He may be at a crossroads in his career, as this could either be his chance to redeem himself as one of the best coaches in this league, or he may just be an average coach that got hot at the right time. Because he led the Blues to win their first ever title, he will likely be the Blues’ head coach for a long time.

Expected 2022 NHL Rating: 2.5 stars
Projected 2022 Role: Head Coach of the St. Louis Blues

The 2021-22 St. Louis Blues’ Projected Lines:

Forwards:

1st Line:

David Perron (LW), Ryan O’Reilly (C), Jordan Kyrou (RW)

2nd Line:

Pavel Buchnevich (LW), Brayden Schenn (C), Vladimir Tarasenko (RW)

3rd Line:

Brandon Saad (LW), Tyler Bozak (C), Robert Thomas (RW)

4th Line:

Ivan Barbashev (LW), Oskar Sundqvist (C), Kyle Clifford (RW)

Defensemen:

1st Pairing:

Torey Krug (LD), Justin Faulk (RD)

2nd Pairing:

Marco Scandella (LD), Colton Parayko (RD)

3rd Pairing:

Niko Mikkola (LD), Robert Bortuzzo (RD)

Goalies:

1. Jordan Binnington

2. Ville Husso

Healthy Scratches:

F Mackenzie MacEachern
F Klim Kostin
D Jake Walman

The St. Louis Blues’ 2022 Forecast and Grades:

Forwards: A-
Defensemen: B
Goalies: B
Head Coach: B

Overall: B+

The St. Louis Blues’ 2022 Season Projection:

Ceiling (Peak Projection): Win the 2022 Stanley Cup Championship
Floor (Lowest Level Outcome): 1st Round Playoff Exit
Most Likely Season Outcome: 2nd Round Playoff Exit

Overall, the 2022 St. Louis Blues looks to be a very good team, at least on paper. They’ll still face stiff competition from other teams in this league, and head coach Craig Berube will need to demonstrate his coaching chops in order to help the Blues make a title run in the playoffs (or at least a deep run in the postseason) this season. Otherwise, all of the moves could be for naught if it leads to another early playoff exit just like in the past two seasons.

As for what everyone else expects out of this team, Vegas Insider doesn’t seem to be very confident at all in the Blues’ chances to win the Cup in 2022. It has the Blues at 35 to 1 odds. It has the Colorado Avalanche as the favorite at 6 to 1 odds. For diehard fans who have the disposable income gamble on sports games, if they wish to place bets on hockey, it could be an interesting strategic move for Blues fans to place money down on their team to win the title.

While I feel Vegas Insider underrates the Blues considerably, it also means that the hockey fans in the rest of the country may not view the Blues as optimistically as I do. Anyways, I’m excited for the upcoming season, and it will be fun to watch the Blues play this year. I’m hoping they can win the Stanley Cup this season.

For me, I'll stay optimistic at the St. Louis Blues' chances while trying to keep a healthy dose of realism at the same time. The Blues have a very good team, but I'm also well aware that there is plenty of competition, and that the Blues have won only one title in their 54-year history so far, so the odds may not be very high. Anyways, it will be an exciting season, and I'll be rooting for the St. Louis Blues hard once again this year. Thank you for reading.