Spring training is already under way, but I wanted to take
the time to figure out whom I would predict to make the St. Louis Cardinals’
roster for opening day. There is a lot
of competition for spots, and some good players will be left off or down in the
minors to start the season. Here are my
predictions on who would make the team, as well as my thoughts on how they
would fare and fit onto the roster.
(Also, another thing to denote, Fangraphs’ WAR is used here for that
specific metric.)
Starting Pitchers (5)
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| Miles Mikolas is poised to have another strong season in 2019. |
RHP Miles Mikolas
2018 (MLB): 18-4, 2.83 ERA, 200.2 IP, 6.55 K/9,
1.30 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 4.3 WAR
Plenty of people in Cardinals’ nation were
excited when the team signed Mikolas away from Japan to pitch for them, but few
could of expected him to excel so quickly, as he rose to prominence by winning
18 games and made the 2018 All-Star team.
Mikolas is a control pitcher that boasts having terrific command of his
stuff, and he is a savvy veteran that is wise beyond his years, and he could
have another All-Star caliber season this year for the Cards.
Projected Role: Ace of the Staff/#1 starter
RHP Jack Flaherty
2018 (MLB): 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 151 IP, 10.85 K/9,
3.52 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, 2.3 WAR
Jack Flaherty had a very good rookie season, as
he is a hard-throwing righty that can strike many hitters out. He has ace level stuff, but he will need to
keep improving his control and command of his stuff. If he takes the next leap in his game, he
could perhaps even elipse Mikolas to be the ace of the Cardinals’ team in the
future.
Projected Role: #2 starter
RHP Carlos Martinez
2018 (MLB): 8-6, 3.11 ERA, 5 SV, 118.2 IP, 8.87
K/9, 4.55 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9, 2.2 WAR
When Martinez was the ace of the staff, he had
been pitching very well as he had made two All-Star teams, was nicknamed
“Tsunami,” and at times looked to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He had an injury-plagued, but still effective
2018 season, and Martinez is still a hard-thrower that can strike lots of
hitters out. But questions about his
durability linger, and he also has some control issues, but Martinez is a
versatile pitcher that could be effective as a mid-tier starter or as a
top-notch bullpen arm for the Cards this season.
Projected Role: 3rd or 4th
Starter
RHP Michael Wacha
2018 (MLB): 8-2, 3.20 ERA, 84.1 IP, 7.58 K/9,
3.84 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 0.8 WAR
Wacha has been injury-prone, as he has had
shoulder problems, but he’s shown flashes of brilliance when he’s been on the
mound. Wacha-mania is no longer a thing
and he will need to improve his curve ball, and he can be too predictable with
his pitches, but he’s shown good command at times, and he still boasts having a
very good fastball-changeup combination.
If Wacha plays as well as expected, he could be a productive, mid-tier
starter in a team’s rotation.
Projected Role: 3rd or 4th starter
RHP Adam Wainwright
2018 (MLB): 2-4, 4.46 ERA, 40.1 IP, 8.93 K/9,
4.02 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 0.5 WAR
For a long time, Adam Wainwright has been the most dominant
pitcher on the Cardinals’ team, and he still has a devastating curveball that
can be lethal to hitters. But he’s been
injury prone, and he’s lost velocity on his fastball, so he’s had to work hard
to reshape his game. Still, he’s a smart
pitcher that knows how to get outs, and he is a savvy veteran that can start or
come out of the bullpen, and he is a pitcher that can be relied upon in crunch
time.
Projected Role: Spot Starter/Multi-Inning Reliever
Relief Pitchers (7)
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| Big things are expected of Andrew Miller, who has been one of the best relievers in this decade. |
LHP Andrew Miller
2018 (MLB w/CLE): 2-4, 4.24 ERA, 34 IP, 8.2 H/9, 0.8 HR/9,
4.2 BB/9, 11.9 K/9, 0.4 WAR
He’s been a very dependable multi-inning reliever for the
Cleveland Indians, and he had a tremendous 2016 postseason run that made him
invaluable to that squad, as he was among the best in baseball at his
position. Miller had an injury-plagued
2018 season, and while he’s not getting any younger, he could be due to return
to top form as he will likely be mowing hitters down on a consistent basis
while showing the strong command that’s enabled him to make two All-Star teams.
Projected Role: Multi-Inning Set Up Man
RHP Jordan Hicks
2018 (MLB): 3-4, 3.59 ERA, 6 SV, 77.2 IP, 8.11
K/9, 5.21 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9, 0.5 WAR
Hicks is a young fireballer that has the strongest arm in baseball. He can throw 105 MPH, and his stuff is
electric. His future is bright, and he
could be a young closer on the rise one day.
But what is baffling is startlingly pedestrian strikeout rate for a
pitcher who throws so hard. While Hicks
does a great job of keeping the ball in the park, he also walks a lot of
hitters, as he does so at an alarming rate.
Hicks may be the favorite to be the closer, and Hicks does boast having
All-Star potential, but it could be a long season if he struggles to adjust to that
role.
Projected Role: Closer
RHP Alex Reyes
He is a vastly talented, but oft-injured pitcher that has
been widely regarded as the organization’s top prospect for several years
now. Reyes can throw 100 MPH, and he can
really strike hitters out. He boasts
having good command, but he also tends to walk hitters. If he’s healthy though, he could excel as
either a starter or reliever, but the Cardinals might have him come out of the
bullpen to prolong his chances to be durable for the entire season.
Projected Role: Multi-Inning Reliever/Spot Starter
LHP Austin Gomber
2018 (MLB): 6-2, 4.44 ERA, 75 IP, 8.04 K/9,
3.84 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 0.8 WAR
Gomber was one of the more pleasant surprises last year with
the Cardinals, and he is a lefty that can start or come out of the
bullpen. He is a versatile pitcher that
can keep the ball in the park, strike hitters out, and he also has pretty good
control of his stuff. If he can take the
expected leap this year, he could be a solid bullpen arm this season.
Projected Role: Multi-Inning Reliever/Spot Starter
RHP John Gant
2018 (MLB): 7-6, 3.47 ERA, 114 IP, 7.5 K/9, 4.5
BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 1.2 WAR
After numerous injuries to pitchers on the Cardinals’ team
last year, John Gant had a solid season, as he became the team’s fifth starter,
and almost helped them get to the playoffs.
Gant is an above average pitcher that has good command of his stuff, he
will need to improve his ability to locate his pitches, but he is a versatile
pitcher that can start or come out of the bullpen.
Projected Role: Multi-Inning Reliever/Spot Starter
RHP Domninic Leone
2018 (MLB): 1-2, 4.50 ERA, 24 IP, 9.75 K/9, 3.0
BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 0.2 WAR
When the Cardinals traded away Randal Grichuk,
Dominic Leone was the pitcher they brought back. Leone had a fairly good, but injury prone
season, but in 2019, he’s expected to help bolster the team’s bullpen. When he’s on his game, he can thrive as a
hard-throwing right-hander in games.
Projected Role: Middle Reliever
RHP John Brebbia
2018 (MLB): 3-3, 3.20 ERA, 50.2 IP, 10.66 K/9,
2.84 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 0.7 WAR
Brebbia had a solid 2018 season, and he’s a
good all-around bullpen pitcher that can locate his pitches and strike hitters
out. He will need to focus on keeping
the ball in the park more, but he will likely have another quality season in
the majors in 2019.
Projected Role: Middle Reliever
Catchers (2)
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| Yadier Molina is a future Hall of Famer that is looking to help get the Cardinals back to the playoffs. |
C Yadier Molina
2018 (MLB): .261 AVG, 20 HR, 74 RBI, .314
OBP, .436 SLG, .750 OPS, 2.2 WAR
Yadier Molina has been one of the best catchers
in this decade, and in this century.
He’s provided Gold Glove defense year after year, as well as a solid
ability to hit the baseball. Look for
him to continue to do the same, as well as maybe get the coveted 10th
All-Star appearance, as he will continue to excel at the backstop in the Cards’
quest for the title in 2019.
Projected Role: Starter
C Matt Wieters
2018 (MLB w/WSN): .238 AVG, 8 HR, 30 RBI, .330 OBP, .374
SLG, .704 OPS, 0.9 WAR
There is quite the competition for the backup catcher job,
and for a while, it appeared Francisco Pena would again be the favorite to land
this role for another year while catching prospect Andrew Knizner spends some
time in the high minors to hone his game.
But the Cardinals signed Wieters recently to bolster the team’s depth,
and he is a welcome addition who has made multiple All-Star teams. While he may no longer be the hitter he used
to be, Wieters can provide above average defense and some pop in his bat in a
backup role behind Yadi this year.
Projected Role: Backup
Infielders (6)
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| Paul Goldschmidt was a major addition to the Cardinals, and he could be the impact middle of the order bat that the team has sought for years. |
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2018 (MLB w/ARI): .290 AVG, 33 HR, 83 RBI, 7
SB, .389 OBP, .533 SLG, .922 OPS, 5.1 WAR
Goldschmidt has been the story of the offseason
for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they acquired him in a trade with Arizona, as
they dealt numerous players to get him.
Goldschmidt has been one of the best hitters in baseball, and he is a
terrific hitter that has made 6 All-Star teams in a row. Goldschmidt will likely continue to play
excellent baseball, as well as maybe guide the Cardinals back to the
postseason.
Projected Role: Starter
3B Matt Carpenter
2018 (MLB): .257 AVG, 36 HR, 81 RBI, .374 OBP,
.523 SLG, .897 OPS, 5.0 WAR
Matt Carpenter is a terrific hitter that has a
great approach to the plate, he can play multiple positions, and he has shown a
solid ability to launch balls, as he hit a season best 36 homers last
year. He is a versatile player that
teams would love to have on their team, and he will likely continue to be one
of the best hitters in baseball for the upcoming season.
Projected Role: Starter
SS Paul DeJong
2018 (MLB): .241 AVG, 19 HR, 68 RBI, .313 OBP,
.433 SLG, .746 OPS, 3.3 WAR
Paul DeJong is a power-hitting shortstop that
can launch balls, and he is also a very good fielder at his position. He’s not the fastest player, and his batting
average was substantially down from his rookie season, but DeJong has been a
productive player as he can also play multiple positions, and he will likely be
one of the upper echelon shortstops in baseball this year.
Projected Role: Starter
2B Kolten Wong
2018 (MLB): .249 AVG, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB, .332
OBP, .388 SLG, .720 OPS, 2.8 WAR
Kolten Wong is a smooth fielding, rangy second
baseman that played terrific defense in 2018.
Once thought to have All-Star potential due to his bat, instead it’s
been his glove that has allowed him to stay in the lineup. Wong does have some pop in his bat, but he no
longer is a big threat to hit home runs, and he’s been an inconsistent hitter
at the plate. Wong does take walks, and
his tremendous glove could help the Cards, as they may boast having one of the
best infields this season.
Projected Role: Starter
IF Jedd Gyorko
2018 (MLB): .262 AVG, 11 HR, 47 RBI, .346 OBP,
.416 SLG, .762 OPS, 1.4 WAR
Jedd Gyorko is a power-hitting corner infielder
who has had two solid seasons as a starter with the Cardinals in 2016 and 2017,
but last year, he had something of a power outage as he struggled to hit homers
throughout the year. He has begun to
show signs of decline as an aging player, but he can play multiple positions,
and he can still hit a double-digit number of homers for the Cards.
Projected Role: Top Backup Infielder
UT Drew Robinson
2018 (w/TEX): .183 AVG, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, .288 OBP, .294
SLG, .582 OPS, -0.1 WAR
The spot for the last infielder role could be just as
intense as the backup catcher competition.
The other contender for this spot is second-year player Yairo Munoz, but
Robinson is expected to beat him out to make the team’s opening day roster
because he bats left-handed, and he is a better fielder than Munoz. Robinson is a power-hitting utility player
that can play multiple positions, but he strikes out a ton, and hasn’t hit well
in the majors. He boasts having a
stellar minor-league track record, but this year is a make or break year for
him, otherwise he could end up getting the dreaded 4A player label.
Projected Role: Backup/Utility Player
Outfielders (5)
LF Marcell Ozuna
2018 (MLB): .280 AVG, 23 HR, 88 RBI, .325 OBP,
.433 SLG, .758 OPS, 2.7 WAR
Marcell Ozuna was last year’s big haul for the
Cardinals. He didn’t quite play as well
as expected, but he still put up some solid numbers as he really turned it on
in the second half of the season. Ozuna
is a power hitter that can be expected to hit for a high average, but he is not
a great fielder defensively. But expect
him to have a big season, especially with Goldschmidt and Carpenter to surround
him, and Ozuna could end up playing to All-Star caliber form this season.
Projected Role: Starter
 |
| Harrison Bader is looking to follow up on a strong rookie season. |
CF Harrison Bader
2018 (MLB): .264 AVG, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 15 SB,
,334 OBP, .422 SLG, .756 OPS, 3.5 WAR
Harrison Bader had a very good rookie season,
and he is a terrific defensive player, as he has a lot of range, can catch a
lot of baseballs, and he could win a gold glove someday. On offense, he may be a slightly above
average hitter, but he can also steal bases.
Bader will likely have a solid sophomore season in the majors, as he
could project to be like a Kevin Kiermaier type of player for the Cards.
Projected Role: Starter
RF Dexter Fowler
2018 (MLB): .180 AVG, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 5 SB, .278
OBP, .298 SLG, .576 OPS, -1.2 WAR
Fowler has been known for having a strong
approach to the plate, as well as having very good speed on the basepaths. He played a key role on the 2016 Chicago Cubs
to help get them the title. But last
year, he didn’t show much of either of those things, as he struggled to get
hits or to steal bases. Much of the
blame may lie on his lack of rapport with Mike Matheny, and then he ended up
getting injured.
Given his gargantuan contract and full no-trade
clause he was given when he signed with the Cardinals, Fowler will be given
every chance to start and to have a fresh start in 2019. Chances are he will be made the starting
right fielder on Opening Day. But if he
repeats his disappointing year in 2018, Fowler could be to the Cardinals what
Luol Deng was to the Los Angeles Lakers, a former good player who turned out to
be known for his albatross contract with that organization.
Projected Role: Platoon Player between Starter
and Bench Player
OF/1B Jose Martinez
2018 (MLB): .305 AVG, 17 HR, 83 RBI, .364 OBP,
.457 SLG, .821 OPS, 2.3 WAR
Jose Martinez is a very good hitter, as he is a
tall, power hitter that consistently gets hits, and he can provide close to 20
homers in any given season. If he were
in the American League, he could clearly play in an everyday role as a DH, and
contend to make the All-Star team. But there
is one thing that sets him back, and Martinez rates as a porous defender when
he is out in the field. Defensive
metrics rate him as quite poor, as he just doesn’t have much range. But Martinez’s ability to hit the baseball
should make him a key player on this year’s team, whether if he ends up being a
starter or if he ends up being the top reserve player off the bench this
season.
Projected Role: Platoon Player between Starter
and Bench Player
OF Tyler O’Neill
2018 (MLB): .254 AVG, 9 HR, 23 RBI, .303 OBP,
.500 SLG, .803 OPS, 1.3 WAR
Tyler O’Neill at first struggled a bit in the
majors, but he consistently played excellent baseball in AAA, and when he ended
up getting called up again, he played very well in the time he was on the
field. Based on analytics and projection
models, O’Neill probably should be the favorite to be the starting right
fielder, as he is a young power hitter that has a lot of upside, and he is also
a very good fielder.
But there is one thing that could set him back,
O’Neill strikes out a ton, and that aspect could make projecting how well his
season goes this year to be difficult.
As much as he has All-Star potential, O’Neill also could be a boom or
bust type of player for this year’s team.
The battle probably should be between him and Jose Martinez to be the
starting right fielder, but there are reports saying that O’Neill could start
the season in the minors. While he could
thrive in a platoon role in the majors, it is uncertain which role the Cards
will have him play, as the crowded race at right field could leave one hitter
to be the odd man out.
Projected Role: Platoon Player between Starter
and Bench Player
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| Owner Bill DeWitt Jr., President Baseball of Operations John Mozeliak, and Manager Mike Shildt look to be poised to have a strong 2019 season. |
This is a deep roster that boasts having a lot of talent all
the way through. Though they may not
have a dominant starter on their pitching staff, they have many different
players that can provide solid innings up and down their roster. Getting Goldschmidt surely will help make the
Cardinals have one of the best infields in the majors, as he and Carpenter will
be two of the best hitters in baseball.
Yadier Molina has been very good year in and year out. While Ozuna and Bader will likely play well
this year, what they get out of their right fielder remains a mystery this year. That said, Mike Shildt did a very good job
in his rookie season as a manager after being called in to manage midway
through, as he guided a team that was then on the brink of disaster to helping
them nearly make the playoffs. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch, and owner Bill Dewitt Jr. have built themselves a very good roster for upcoming season.
Projected 2019 Grades:
Starting Rotation: B
Starting Rotation: B
Bullpen: B
Catcher: B+
Infield: A-
Outfield: B-
Bench: B
Manager: B+
Infield: A-
Outfield: B-
Bench: B
Manager: B+
Overall: B+
2019 St. Louis Cardinals’ Season Expectation: Will contend for the division title, likely could grab one of the wildcard spots, and could be a tough out if they make the playoffs this year, with an outside chance to win the World Series.
Post-Predictions Update: Jedd Gyorko will start the season on the injured list, so both Yairo Munoz and Drew Robinson will make the team. Mike Mayers also made the team, Carlos Martinez will start the season on the injured list, Dakota Hudson will be the 5th starter while John Gant will be the long man in the majors, and Austin Gomber will be in AAA. Also, John Brebbia edged out Tyler Webb to nab the final bullpen spot on the Cardinals' major league team to be on the Opening Day roster.
Post-Predictions Update: Jedd Gyorko will start the season on the injured list, so both Yairo Munoz and Drew Robinson will make the team. Mike Mayers also made the team, Carlos Martinez will start the season on the injured list, Dakota Hudson will be the 5th starter while John Gant will be the long man in the majors, and Austin Gomber will be in AAA. Also, John Brebbia edged out Tyler Webb to nab the final bullpen spot on the Cardinals' major league team to be on the Opening Day roster.
