Thoughts On The Andrew Miller Signing

The Cardinals add one of the biggest names among bullpen arms by signing Andrew Miller to a 2-year deal.

Recently, the St. Louis Cardinals signed Andrew Miller to a two year, $22.5 million deal, with a club option for $12 million in 2021, according to Jon Heyman.  He also was given a no-trade clause.  As the Cards have needed bullpen help for a long time, this seems to be a very logical signing.

In fact, Andrew Miller had been one of the best bullpen pitchers in three of the last four seasons for both the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Indians, as he has racked up AL Cy Young award votes, and has made two All-Star teams in that time span.

He also had 10 wins in 2016 despite having been in the bullpen all year long, which was quite a remarkable feat, and Andrew Miller has had a sub-2.00 ERA in 2016 and 2017.  He had a tremendous 2016 postseason run in which he took home the ALCS MVP honors, and his versatility coming out of the bullpen, and his ability to be a dominant multi-inning reliever allowed Cleveland to win many games that year and to almost win the World Series.

According to Fangraphs, from 2014-2017, Andrew Miller had a combined 9.6 WAR in those four seasons, placing in the top 5 among bullpen pitchers in each of those seasons in Wins Above Replacement, and was tops among all relievers in that category in the 2016 season.  He also was tops among relievers that had pitched 50 innings or more in Ks per 9 in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, which denotes Miller’s prowess as a strikeout pitcher.  He’s been a transformational pitcher that have made people reassess how bullpen pitchers are valued, as he’s been significantly more valuable than the average closer over the years.

However, 2018 wasn’t exactly a great season for Miller in his last year in Cleveland.  Last year, he had shoulder problems, which limited his ability to pitch throughout the year.  He had an injury plagued season that had him collect more losses than wins, which was the first time he had done so since the 2013 season.  Miller also had a 4.24 ERA, and had only a 0.4 WAR according to Fangraphs.

On top of that, Andrew Miller will be turning 33 in mid-May, and will be in his mid-30s by the end of his tenure with the Cardinals.  With that in mind, the likelihood of Miller entering into his decline years could be fairly high, which could actually make this signing fairly risky, with Miller having also received a full no-trade clause.  And skeptics may point to the ill-fated Greg Holland signing of last year as a warning sign when pursuing big-name relievers.  Last year, the Cardinals had signed Holland to a 1-year, $14 million deal, and gave up a compensation pick to sign him just before Opening Day, only for Holland to post a horrific 7.92 ERA before being released by the Cards midseason.

On the other hand, Miller is a proven bullpen pitcher that has a very good track record, and his versatility and experience could allow him to be used in any way the Cardinals deem fit, while allowing the younger pitchers to develop at their own pace without having to be in high leverage situations too soon.

2019 Expectations: Multi-Inning Reliever

2019 Rating: 3.5 stars

Projected 2019 Statistics: 55 GP, 5-3, 2.86 ERA, 15 SV, 6.9 H/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.7 HR.9, 13.1 K/9

55 GP, 63 IP, 48 H, 23 BB, 5 HR, 92 K, 20 ER, 1.8 WAR

Conclusion:

Overall, this move helps to strengthen the Cardinals' bullpen, and immediately, Miller provides an upgrade over the top arms that were there in 2018.  However, he's had a lot of miles on his arm, and he had a down year in which he's also had shoulder problems, and combined with that he's entering his mid-30s, this makes this signing fairly risky.  But the Cardinals are gunning for the championship, and this seems like a calculated risk that could be worth taking.

Grade of Cards’ Signing Andrew Miller: B

Evaluating the Paul Goldschmidt Trade

On Wednesday, the St. Louis Cardinals made a big acquisition to acquire 6-time All-Star first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they traded away starting pitcher Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, infielder Andrew Young, and a 2019 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick. 

I had known for awhile of the Cardinals’ desire to get Goldschmidt, and when the trade was commenced and made, of course, I was stoked.   The Cardinals are getting one of the best hitters in the game, and Goldschmidt has established himself as an elite player at his position.  The Cardinals did have to give up to get, but I think it is a good trade, especially since the Cards are going for the title in 2019.  But just to double check, I have decided to do a rundown on all of the moving parts that were involved in this trade.

What the St. Louis Cardinals Received:

Paul Goldschmidt is one of the best players in the MLB, and he will likely be an All-Star in 2019.

 1B Paul Goldschmidt

2018 (w/Arizona): .290 AVG, 33 HR, 83 RBI, 7 SB, .389 OBP, .533 SLG, .922 OPS, 5.1 WAR

Goldschmidt has been a dominant hitter ever since he led the league in homers all the way back in 2013, and it’s not just how well he can hit balls over the fence.  He is a disciplined hitter that has a very good approach to the plate, and he does a great job of getting hits and drawing walks to help his team.

He has had better than an .800 OPS in every year he’s been in the majors, and he has not had below a .290 batting average since 2012.   Goldschmidt has also averaged 31.5 homers and 102 RBIs in his past 4 seasons, and he’s drawn at least 90 walks or more in 5 of his past 6 seasons, including this past one in 2018.  He’s even stolen 32 bases in a season to show his ability to excel on the basepaths.  Also, he’s been to the All-Star game for six consecutive seasons.

Goldschmidt obviously is a really good player, and I had projected him to be the top first baseman for the 2018 season.  

 He doesn’t have many flaws, but one can look hard enough to find one, or multiple.  As some may look to pick at them, here's what they may say:

Perhaps his most glaring flaw, is his less than stellar defensive play.  On the Fangraphs page, his defensive WAR has consistently been below average, though his UZR has been historically slightly above average for his career. Goldschmidt does not commit many errors, which is good, but advanced statistics suggests that he may not have as much range for a player at his position.

Also, he has also played in historically a pitcher’s park.  According to ESPN’s park factors, Arizona has the 11^th most hitter friendly ballpark, as where St. Louis rated tied for 23^rd in the same category.  Conversely, that would also mean that St. Louis’ Busch Stadium would rate as tied for 7^th most pitcher friendly ballpark.  Therefore, some might expect Goldschmidt to even have a slight dropoff in production as a result of moving from a hitter friendly park to one that tends to favor pitchers.

Another potential concern is that he is starting to get older as a player.  Goldschmidt will be turning 32 next September, and some of the projection models may project decline from him due to its historical analysis.  But right now, Goldschmidt is one of the best players at his position, if not the best, and he has not missed the All-Star game in a long while. 

Overall, Goldschmidt is a terrific hitter that can get hits, draw walks, hit for power, and he also may be an underrated baserunner.  Even though his range may rate as below average in the field, Goldschmidt has consistently performed an elite, All-Star level, and in overall WAR, he was only second among all first basemen in the majors to Atlanta Braves’ first baseman, Freddie Freeman.

Goldschmidt’s 2018 Grade & Overall Value: A

2019 Expectations: All-Star, still one of the best first basemen in the majors

2019 Rating: 5 stars

What the Arizona Diamondbacks Received:

Luke Weaver was an integral part of the Goldschmidt trade, and he could be a year-long starter for the D-Backs.

SP Luke Weaver

2018 (MLB): 7-11, 4.95 ERA, 136.1 IP, 7.99 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 1.3 WAR

I thought Weaver had a rocky 2018 season, but he’s a talented young starter that can strike hitters out.  However, he only has two very good pitches, as his bread and butter pitches are his fastball and his changeup, and he will need to add a quality breaking ball to his arsenal. 

He’s had some command issues, and right now, he may be a backend starter, but he has the potential to be a mid-tier starter in the future.  Definitely, Luke Weaver will be able to get in many starts in Arizona, and now that he is no longer facing a log jam for innings by moving out west, he could help speed up the D-Backs’ rebuilding process.

Value: B-

Updated 2019 Expectations: 4^th or 5^th starter

Updated 2019 Player Rating:  2 stars (3 star potential)

C Carson Kelly

The Diamondbacks are hoping that Carson Kelly could develop into a reliable starter in the majors.

2018 MLB Numbers: .114 AVG, 0 HR, 6 RBI, .205 OBP, .114 SLG, .319 OPS, -0.4 WAR

2018 AAA Numbers: .269 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI, .378 OBP, .395 SLG, .773 OPS 

(PCL & AAA champions)

Once considered the catcher of the future in St. Louis, he was blocked for playing time, as Yadier Molina continues to play well, and hasn’t showed much signs of slowing down.  Kelly didn’t have many opportunities to play in the majors, and he didn’t hit very well in the times he’s been up. 

On the other hand, Kelly’s been very productive in the minors, as he is a defensive-minded catcher that can call a good game, and he has helped the Cardinals’ AAA team, the Memphis Redbirds win two titles in the PCL.  He also did a good job of drawing walks at that level.  He’s been quite successful at the AAA level, and while he hasn’t yet played well in the big leagues, Kelly could take ample advantage of the opportunity by Arizona if he gets playing time in the majors.

Value: B-

Updated 2019 Expectations: Backup catcher

Updated 2019 Player Rating: 1.5 stars (2.5 star potential)

2B/IF Andrew Young

Andrew Young is an offensive-minded utility infielder that is hoping to get called up to the majors one day.

2018 (AA): .319 AVG, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 0 SB, .395 OBP, .556 SLG, .950 OPS

2018  (A+): .276 AVG, 12 HR, 34 RBI, 4 SB, .372 OBP, .444 SLG, .817 OPS

2018 (AFL): .301 AVG, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB, .416 OBP, .521 SLG, .936 OPS

Unlike the other two, Weaver and Kelly, honestly, I was actually unaware that Andy Young existed in the Cardinals’ organization.  MLB Pipeline did not actually rank him in the top 30 of organizational prospects prior to the trade, but he actually had hit well in AA at Springfield in his brief tenure there. 

He also was added to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit extremely well there.  If I had known Young existed, I probably would’ve rated him as the 20^th best prospect in the Cards’ organization at the time.

It’s clear from the above numbers that Young is a very good hitting prospect, as he has hit well at every level.   However, the word is that he isn’t ranked nearly as high as he perhaps should’ve been because scouts don’t seem to be enamored with his defense or his ability to catch the baseball.  He also might not be super fast or have much range, and he has never recorded 10 or more stolen bases in a season.

He has the ability to make the majors, but if he does, he could project into a Greg Garcia or Yairo Munoz role at that level.

Value: C+

2019 Expectations: AA starter, late call-up to AAA, and maybe even be a September call-up

2019 Player Rating: 1 star (2 star potential)

2019 Competitive Balance Comp B Pick

Having draft picks early in the MLB Draft are always nice, and while people may miss having this pick, it is also uncertain if the player that will be drafted will be a good player in the future.  It is a top 100 pick, as this pick would be somewhere between the 70^th and the 75^th pick in the 2019 draft, and essentially this pick is the equivalent to a low second round or high third rounder.  If a team hits on this selection, they could end up with a Bader or Hicks type of player.

Value: B

2019 Star Rating: 3 star potential

Conclusion:

The Cardinals come away with the big prize in getting easily the best player in the deal, as they get an elite level player in acquiring 1B Paul Goldschmidt.  The Arizona Diamondbacks get four second-tier level assets, with the 2019 Competitive Balance Comp B Pick, Carson Kelly, and Luke Weaver likely being adequate acquisitions that they received in return.

For Arizona, it seems that they made a quantity for quality trade, as they accumulated a lot of above average level assets, but likely no elite level players in this deal, unless if the draft pick turns into a really good player.  Most likely, Luke Weaver may end up being a backend starter, Carson Kelly could be a solid defensive catcher, and Andrew Young may be a fringe utility infielder.   

But the most surprising aspect was that the Diamondbacks did not even look to take higher end assets, such as Tyler O’Neill, Elehuris Montero, or to ask for a polished pitching prospect such as Dakota Hudson, especially considering that this is one week after the Mariners acquired Jared Kelenic, who was the 6^th overall pick in the 2018 draft in the Cano and Edwin Diaz deal.

Time will tell to see who will have won the trade, and we may need to wait 5 years before we can draw a definitive conclusion to answer that question.  But for now, it seems that the St. Louis Cardinals won this trade, and hands down, they acquired the best player by far in this deal.

Grade for the St. Louis Cardinals’ Part of the Trade: A

Grade for the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Part of the Trade: B-