Revisiting the 2018 First Basemen Rankings' Forecast

In 2018, the debate for who would be the best first baseman for that season was fierce.  In addition, analysts would debate on which first basemen would be regarded as the best in baseball that year, as each analyst sent in their top 10 list.  I had sent mine through Twitter on January 26^th, and this was definitively my best list in 2018.  Not only did it receive the most likes out of my lists that year, but I ended up having the most accurate list overall in that category.

Here, we will be analyzing my own list (Alan Lu), as well as the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Jim Thome, and the fans from social media.

Here is how we all fared in this category that year.

2018 First Basemen:

2018 1B	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Thome	Fans	fWAR	Rank
Freddie Freeman	4	2	7	3	4	3	2	6	4	5.3	1
Paul Goldschmidt	1	3	2	2	2	2	3	1	2	5.2	2
Matt Carpenter	6	9	15	15	15	8	9	15	15	5.0	3
Cody Bellinger	5	5	5	5	3	5	4	7	5	3.6	4
Joey Votto	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	3.5	5
Matt Olson	15	15	9	15	15	15	15	15	15	3.5	5
Anthony Rizzo	3	4	3	4	5	4	5	4	3	2.9	7
Joey Gallo	15	15	15	10	6	10	15	15	15	2.7	8
Brandon Belt	10	8	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	2.2	9
Carlos Santana	9	10	15	7	15	7	7	15	15	1.8	10
Justin Smoak	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	9	15	1.7	11
Ryan Zimmerman	15	15	15	15	7	15	15	15	15	1.3	12
Jose Abreu	8	6	6	8	9	6	6	3	9	1.2	13
Yuli Gurriel	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	1.1	14
Edwin Encarnacion	7	7	15	6	15	15	10	8	15	1.0	15
Josh Bell	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.9	16
Eric Thames	15	15	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	0.9	16
Miguel Cabrera	15	15	15	9	15	9	15	10	7	0.7	18
Greg Bird	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	8	0.1	19
Eric Hosmer	15	15	4	15	10	15	8	5	6	-0.1	20
Diff. Estimator	69	71	93	85	85	71	81	107	105
Yr Rank	1	2	7	5	5	2	4	9	8

...

This was by far, my best list of 2018.  I had the most accurate list here, and also had bet big on Matt Carpenter, which paid off as he went on to have a superb season that resulted him in finished 3rd in Fangraphs WAR among players ranked by analysts in this position.  No one voted for Freddie Freeman at the top, so me picking Paul Goldschmidt to be #1 was a solid choice, as he finished 2nd in Fangraphs WAR among first basemen out of players on this list.  In addition, I correctly identified Brandon Belt and Carlos Santana as players that would be top 10 finishers among first basemen listed here.

The Shredder also did a good job in forecasting 2018 first basemen.  Like myself, they had the good sense to pick Matt Carpenter as a top 10 first baseman for that season, and they also had Belt and Santana in their top 10 list.  While they missed by picking Abreu and Encarnacion, that did not hurt them that much here.

We still do remember Matt Carpenter's secret salsa, right?
 He had a tremendous second half in 2018 to cap off a terrific 2018 season.
(Picture courtesy of STL Sports Page via Rob Rains and Suzanne Corbett)

Overall, I would give myself an A for my 2018 first basemen forecast.  Though no one had Freeman at #1, I must pat myself on the back for picking Matt Carpenter the highest out of all of the other analysts, and he rewarded my faith by having a 5.0 Fangraphs WAR season.  He certainly was the Cardinals' MVP in the 2nd half of the season, and he was definitely one of the best players in baseball in 2018.

Thank you for reading, and thanks to Brewers Nation for providing the top 10 lists of analysts.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Evaluating the 2018 Catchers' Forecast

Since we'll be recapping forecasts of top position players and pitchers for the 2018 MLB season, we'll be revisiting predictions for catchers that year.  Many had selected Buster Posey to finish at the top, while the fans' pick was for Yadier Molina.  Statistical analysts had some reservations about Yadi though, even though he is well on his way to having a great baseball career, as his Fangraphs WAR was not as high as expected in previous years, so they did not tend to rate him as high as social media did.

I tended to pick more defensive minded catchers like Yadi, but the Shredder opted for a more offensive lean, with pitch framing being the new source of discussion from statistical analysts.  Tyler Flowers' pitch framing was the hot button topic, and he was trending upwards from the analysts.  Meanwhile, other catchers such as Yasmani Grandal, Salvador Perez, and Jonathan Lucroy remained divisive candidates for the top 10.

I will be analyzing how I did (Alan Lu), as well as the other analysts such as The Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Dave Valle, and the fans from social media.  I remember sending in my list via Twitter on January 21, 2018 through this tweet.  Anyways, let's see how everyone did.

2018 Catchers:

2018 C	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Valle	Fans	fWAR	FWAR Rank
J.T. Realmuto	3	5	2	4	3	4	3	7	8	4.9	1
Yasmani Grandal	15	4	15	10	15	8	15	9	15	4.7	2
Yadier Molina	6	8	5	8	8	9	4	4	1	2.5	3
Tyler Flowers	15	9	15	5	10	5	9	8	15	2.5	3
Buster Posey	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2.3	5
Mike Zunino	8	7	8	9	5	7	15	5	10	2.1	6
Gary Sanchez	2	2	6	2	4	2	2	2	3	1.7	7
Russell Martin	9	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	7	1.2	8
Austin Barnes	15	6	15	6	7	6	15	10	15	1.1	9
Kurt Suzuki	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	15	15	1.0	10
Willson Contreras	4	3	4	3	2	3	5	3	5	0.7	11
Alex Avila	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.7	11
Chris Ianetta	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	0.7	11
Jonathan Lucroy	7	15	15	15	15	15	8	15	15	0.6	14
Salvador Perez	5	15	3	7	15	15	6	6	4	0.4	15
Robinson Chirinos	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.3	16
Welington Castillo	10	15	9	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.2	17
Brian McCann	15	15	15	15	15	15	7	15	9	0.1	18
Tucker Barnhart	15	15	7	15	6	15	15	15	6	-0.4	19
Diff. Estimator	100	74	102	80	82	64	102	78	108
Yr Rank	6	2	7	4	5	1	7	3	9

...

For me, I did not really do so well in predicting catchers for the 2018 MLB season.  One glaring omission from me was in not picking Yasmani Grandal to be on the top 10 list, and he ended up turning in a very good season.  He was regarded as a bat catcher who had trouble with his defense and signal calling, but his very good ability to hit on offense helped him in 2018.

I also missed out on the Tyler Flowers trend, as he continued to show excellent pitch framing, which helped him defensively in 2018, and he also put up adequate offensive numbers.  I also missed on Willson Contreras, but the notable misses that hurt me was predicting Jonathan Lucroy, Salvador Perez, and Welington Castillo to all have good seasons that year when they would not end up doing so.

The Shredder actually did a good job of picking catchers to finish in the top 10 among players that were ranked by analysts.  Everyone picked Willson Contreras as that selection backfired, so the repercussions were minimal at best.  The Shredder correctly identified Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers, and Russell Martin as players that would be some of the better catchers among the players that were ranked on this list.

The most accurate in making the 2018 catchers' forecast turns out to be the Ringer's Ben Lindbergh.  Like the Shredder, he too had Grandal, Flowers, and Martin on his list, but he also correctly identified Austin Barnes as a sleeper pick for the 2018 season.

Overall, I think I did okay in my predictions, but I could've done a better job than how I did in predicting catchers for the 2018 season.  Missing out on Grandal and Flowers turned out to be significant missteps, and I ended up overrating Contreras, Lucroy, Perez, and Castillo's future impact for that year, as none of them ended up playing as well as expected.  On the bright side, I did have Russell Martin as a sleeper pick for the lower half of the top 10, as he was one of the better catchers among players that were ranked on this list.  In addition, I also identified J.T. Realmuto as a very good catcher, as he ended up having the best Fangraphs WAR in 2018.  Therefore, I would give myself a C grade for my 2018 catchers' forecast.

Props to Brewers Nation for providing the list of the rankings from the other analyst.  (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.)  

Thank you for reading, and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Looking Back at the 2018 Left Fielders' Forecast

About two years ago, when the St. Louis Cardinals traded for Marcell Ozuna, I had liked the move, even though the team had to part with future All-Star Sandy Alcantara, and then top prospect, center fielder Magneuris Sierra.  I would've preferred if the Cards had traded to get Christian Yelich, but this move was widely viewed as a big chess move to haul in one of the best outfielders in the game.  Many experts agreed, and he was almost a near consensus pick to be the top left fielder in the game for the 2018 MLB season.

Also, because the MLB Network had considered both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton right fielders even though both would play for the New York Yankees, there was a realistic chance that Ozuna would get the top billing as the #1 left fielder by the Shredder.  (Spoiler alert: He did indeed was named the best left fielder for 2018.)

Excited at the prospect of that being the case, I decided to join in and vote for Ozuna to be the best left fielder in the game, like many did in 2018.  I also used this as a time to test my forecasting skills and compare it to eight other analysts, which included the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Eric Byrnes, and fans from social media (whom I'm counting as one entity).

So did I and everyone else do?  Let's find out.

2018 Left Fielders:

2018 LF	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Byrnes	Fans	fWAR	FWAR Rank
Andrew Benintendi	5	8	2	6	9	7	7	9	2	4.4	1
Michael Brantley	6	15	15	15	5	15	15	15	15	3.5	2
Eddie Rosario	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	10	3.5	2
Kyle Schwarber	15	15	15	9	15	8	5	15	15	3.2	4
Justin Upton	2	3	5	2	4	5	2	1	5	3.1	5
Marcell Ozuna	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	2.8	6
Rhys Hoskins	15	15	9	5	6	3	4	15	15	2.8	6
Joc Pederson	8	15	15	15	15	9	15	15	15	2.7	8
Khris Davis	9	6	7	8	7	15	9	4	8	2.7	8
Brett Gardner	10	10	8	4	15	6	10	6	3	2.6	10
Adam Eaton	4	7	15	10	10	2	6	15	15	1.9	11
Alex Gordon	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	6	1.6	12
Marwin Gonzalez	7	9	4	15	2	15	15	5	7	1.5	13
Ryan Braun	15	4	15	15	8	15	8	7	9	1.3	14
Yoenis Cespedis	3	2	15	3	3	4	3	3	4	0.9	15
Nomar Mazara	15	15	3	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.9	15
Melky Cabrera	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	15	15	0.4	17
Adam Duvall	15	15	15	7	15	15	15	8	15	0.2	18
Trey Mancini	15	5	6	15	15	15	15	10	15	-0.3	19
Diff. Estimator	88	122	108	94	96	86	88	132	102
Yr Rank	2	8	7	4	5	1	2	9	6

.....

On one hand, I was majorly bummed that Marcell Ozuna did not have the impact year that I thought he would have in 2018.  So much so, that I ended up grading his season overall to be a C, as I had expected him to get on-base more, and to hit for more power last year.  It turns out that hitting is much harder when there wasn't an MVP candidate hitting in the lineup to provide as much protection, like he had in 2017 in Giancarlo Stanton.  The Cardinals missed the playoffs as Mike Matheny was fired midway through the season, but interim manager Mike Shildt made a strong push for the postseason and the team narrowly missed it, and Shildt was able to retain the manager job by staying on full-time at this position.  But it was clear that the Cardinals needed an elite hitter to provide Ozuna some protection, so in the offseason, the Cards made a big trade to swing a deal to acquire Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I also had a few misses, as I bet big on Yoenis Cespedis and Adam Eaton to have very good years, and neither finished in the top 10 in Fangraphs WAR among left fielders.  Cespedis having a significantly worse season hurt more than Eaton's disappointing year, as Eaton narrowly missed the top 10 list among left fielders that were ranked by analysts.  Plenty of people, including myself had Marwin Gonzalez in the top 10 of this list, and he did not fare quite as well as expected, either.

But I did have several things going my way.  I was one of the few people to rate Michael Brantley in the top 10, knowing that he is a versatile outfielder that can be a stellar player when healthy, and he turned in one of the best seasons among left fielders in 2018.  I also had Joc Pederson in my top 10 list, and he also had a better season than most anticipated.  It also helped that I didn't have as many misses as some of the other analysts had.  I did not pick Ryan Braun, Nomar Mazara, Alex Gordon, or some of the other left fielders, as they did not end up having great seasons in 2018.

The Shredder did not do very well in picking 2018 left fielders.  They did not have Michael Brantley, Eddie Rosario, or Kyle Schwarber in their top 10 list.  Their omission of Rhys Hoskins can be somewhat excused though, as he was not listed as an option to vote on Twitter, as he did not have nearly as many at-bats as the other players prior to the start of the season.

However, the Shredder was adamant in having both Ryan Braun and Trey Mancini in the top 10, which were curious picks at the time, and neither pick panned out for them.  Yoenis Cespedes' #2 ranking by the Shredder was also somewhat a curious pick, as he had an injury-plagued 2017 season, but he had played very well prior to that, but he did not have as good of a 2018 season as anticipated.

The winner in terms of accuracy of 2018 left fielders' forecast appears to be Ben Lindbergh, who is a writer at the Ringer.  He didn't have nearly as many misses as the other analysts in the top 10, and he was able to correctly identify Eddie Rosario, Kyle Schwarber, and Joc Pedersen as left fielders that would play well that year.    In addition, all of the sabermetric analysts on that panel (Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, and Ben Lindbergh) had selected Rhys Hoskins (whom was not listed as a name to be voted on by MLB Network on Twitter) to be on their top 10 list, and capitalized on his 2018 success.

Overall, I think I would give myself a C+ for my picks here.  I don't think my picks were outstanding by any means, but in terms of the entire picture, it was closer than most of the other analysts had.  I didn't like that my top 4 picks all disappointed in some way, but I did manage to correctly identify Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson as players that would have good seasons.  I also tried to stray away from making curveball picks like Alex Gordon, Trey Mancini, or Nomar Mazara, as my play-it-safe approach seemed to help in this case in not making bad selections for this forecast.  I think I did alright, but it could've been better.  I don't feel I was as close as I wanted to be in terms of accuracy, but the data suggested that most people weren't very close in their 2018 left fielders' forecast, either.

Thank you for reading, and there may be more to come.  Also, I would like to thank Brewers Nation for providing the results of the other panelists' top 10 lists.  Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @AlanLuSTL.

Looking Back At Forecasting 2018 Second Basemen....Oh What A Crapshoot That Was

Since we'll be recapping forecasts of top position players and pitchers for the 2018 MLB season, we'll be revisiting predictions for second basemen that year.  Unlike the right fielders' list, most people whiffed at the top and middle of the 2018 second basemen list, as Fangraphs' WAR had three unlikely candidates that finished atop their rankings for that position.

Ozzie Albies was not listed as a candidate that could be voted on Twitter, so he did not end up on my list, nor the Shredder, or fans.  Granted, I would've heavily considered Albies if he were, as he had played very well in limited playing time the year before, and I had considered him to be a sleeper.

Most of the second basemen that people picked skewed older, so what had generally happened was that those selected to fare well generally tended to go into decline to have disappointing seasons, and plenty of under the radar players ended up rising to the top.

One commonality was that everybody chose Jose Altuve to be the best second baseman in 2018, myself included, but one surprising statistic was that he ended up finishing not first, but 4th rather, in Fangraphs WAR amongst second basemen that were picked by analysts that year.

Here, I will be looking back at various analysts' picks, which will be myself (Alan Lu), the Shredder, Bill James, Mike Petriello, Vince Gennaro, Ben Lindbergh, Brian Kenny, Harold Reynolds, and fans from social media (who will be counted as one entity for simplicity purposes).

On January 12th, 2018, I made my selections for the top 10 right fielders' list via Twitter.  So how well did I fare here?  Let's find out through this table listed below:

2018 2B	Alan Lu	Shredder	James	Petriello	Gennaro	Lindbergh	Kenny	Reynolds	Fans	fWAR	FWAR Rank
Javier Baez	8	15	15	8	15	15	15	8	2	5.3	1
Whit Merrifield	15	15	6	15	15	15	15	9	10	5.2	2
Jed Lowrie	15	15	8	15	15	15	15	15	15	5.0	3
Jose Altuve	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	4.9	4
Scooter Gennett	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	10	15	4.5	5
Ozzie Albies	15	15	15	10	15	9	15	15	15	3.8	6
Robinson Cano	4	2	5	5	7	4	3	2	3	2.9	7
Starlin Castro	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	9	2.3	8
Ian Kinsler	5	8	15	6	8	7	6	5	8	2.2	9
D.J. LeMahieu	10	5	10	9	4	15	8	15	15	2.1	10
Cesar Hernandez	15	10	9	7	5	10	15	15	15	2.1	10
Brian Dozier	2	3	4	2	3	2	2	4	6	0.9	12
Daniel Murphy	3	4	3	3	2	3	4	6	4	0.8	13
Jonathan Schoop	7	7	2	4	6	5	5	3	7	0.5	14
Josh Harrison	15	15	15	15	15	15	7	7	15	0.3	15
Neil Walker	9	9	15	15	9	6	10	15	15	0.1	16
Joe Panik	15	15	15	15	10	15	15	15	15	0.1	16
Dustin Pedroia	6	6	7	15	15	8	9	15	5	-0.1	18
Diff.Estimator	120	124	104	100	124	122	134	108	96
Yr Rank	5	7	3	2	7	6	7	4	1

.......

2018 was not a great year for forecasting second basemen. 
(Picture courtesy of The Odyssey Online.)

Oh, boy.  Just about everyone had a terrible time predicting second basemen in 2018.  (That, along with relief pitchers, but we'll likely get to that in a later post.)

Not many analysts selected Javier Baez or Whit Merrifield, and virtually no one picked Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Ozzie Albies, or Starlin Castro to finish in the top 10 in this category.  

While everyone successfully picked Jose Altuve and Robinson Cano to be top 10 finishers among players that were ranked here, everyone missed hard by predicting Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, and Jonathan Schoop to fare very well when they did not end up being top 10 finishers among second basemen.

_
As for how I did, I think I did okay, but I could've done a better job making my picks.  On the plus side, I had Javier Baez on my list, and he actually finished tops amongst second basemen in Fangraphs WAR for the 2018 season.  Ian Kinsler and D.J. LeMahieu also played fairly well that year.

On the other hand, like many others, I bet on Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Schoop, Neil Walker, and Dustin Pedroia to fare well, and none of them had good seasons in 2018.

The Shredder did not do so hot, either.  They missed on most of the top 10 finishers among those that were ranked by analysts, which include Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield, Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Ozzie Albies, and Starlin Castro.  Like myself, their picks of Dozier, Murphy, Schoop, Walker, and Pedroia did not pan out at all.  On the bright side, their pick of LeMahieu to finish in the top 10 turned out to be one of their better picks among second basemen that year.

In this category, the fans from social media actually did the best job in terms of forecasting accuracy on 2018 second basemen.  That's right.....the FANS!

They had Javier Baez ranked 2 on their list, and he finished tops amongst 2018 second basemen in Fangraphs WAR.  They also picked Whit Merrifield and Starlin Castro to finish in the top 10, and both did so amongst the players on this list.  They bet big on Baez, and he rewarded them for their faith.  Good job, fans.


Overall, I would give myself a C for my picks of 2018 second basemen.  I didn't do so well here, but neither did most of the analysts (except fans), but since I was picking off of the options Twitter gave me, I wasn't left with a whole lot of enticing choices.  A good handful of my picks did poorly, but picking Baez to finish in the top 10 may have been the saving grace for my 2018 second basemen forecast here.

For who everyone else picked, you can view it from Brewers Nation.   (It's kind of ironic, since I'm a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, but in this case, they did a good job of recapping what happened for all of the top 10 lists.) 

Also, hope you enjoyed reading this, and you can follow me on Twitter @AlanLuSTL.